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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Dendrite. Smoke um if ya got um

smoke_t3lvl12_f18.png

Thanks for posting this. The HRRR smoke models are pretty neat. Sad seeing all that smoke blowing across the country. Is it enough where it’s starting to affect weather? Seems like large swaths of US and Canada have at least a little smoke at this point in the atmosphere.

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There are certainly going to be several shortwaves and fronts thrown our way over the next 10-14 days with that signal of troughing into the Great Lakes region so it will certainly be "active" with shower/thunderstorm chances. We will probably see a mixture of dry periods/unsettled periods with each period probably lasting 2-3 days at a time. Leading into the unsettled periods we'll see some warm/hot and humid weather and behind the fronts it will be seasonable-to-below average with very low dewpoints. 

I also suggest the overall trough magnitude will probably be 20 or so % less in areal scale compared to the Euro … and not as deep as the GFS over the polar side of the westerly 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just got a big whiff of smoke blowing into the bedroom via the window fan. Is that smoke into the region yet?

Chickens plotting revenge?

If the HRRR is any indication, the thicker near surface smoke doesn't arrive until midday tomorrow.

trc1_t3sfc_f17.png

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Chickens plotting revenge?

If the HRRR is any indication, the thicker near surface smoke doesn't arrive until midday tomorrow.

trc1_t3sfc_f17.png

 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

AQ?

Must be some local deal. It’s been creeping up all night.

132270F5-4204-4156-AB5B-7593C387EC0A.png

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17 minutes ago, alex said:

Just shoot me lol. Things haven't even really started growing this year!

In about 2 weeks I start nipping the tops from our tomato plants, so that growth can focus on fruit already set rather than on setting new fruit that won't ripen in time.  Fall prep.  Average temps (slowly) begin the downward slide late this week.

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Something I've noticed lately ... past 10 days or so.  Warm day scenarios seem to all be smoke plagued.   Cool ones are clear(er).

It's probably claiming some of our diurnal max potential?

I am not completely sophisticated with smoke-aerosols and their effective thermodynamic micro-physical feed-backs, no - lol.

But it seems intuitive that adding material to the atmosphere that has a separate and distinct absorption capacitance ... eventual long-wave radiation aspect to it may have some impact on heating potential.

I almost imagine it keep nights slightly elevated, ...similar to 'cloud capping' preventing radiational heating.  Or maybe the smoke itself re-radiates long wave rad back to the system. I dunno -...it's not like water vapor physics. That much we know. 

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Low vis here of only a few miles.  MVL says mist, while BTV says haze.  Probably a combination of both.

ASOS doesn't really distinguish between the two...it's just a vis sensor. So the HZ vs BR obs are all based on the dewpoint depression. A vis of 4SM or less will result in BR (or FG if it's low enough) and anything over 4SM is HZ.

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20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is there a max height ASOS stations will report for sky cover/conditions?

Most still use 12000ft ceilometers although some of the larger, climo stations use the 25000ft ones. BOS even used to report layers up to 35000ft.

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ASOS doesn't really distinguish between the two...it's just a vis sensor. So the HZ vs BR obs are all based on the dewpoint depression. A vis of 4SM or less will result in BR (or FG if it's low enough) and anything over 4SM is HZ.

Ahh good to know!  Thanks man.  I thought it might be because BTV is a manned airport and they could distinguish the two but isn't there a code for human intervention in the METAR?

I will say it is like orange outside right now.  The lighting is bizarre.  It's like a reddish glow.  Last week the smoke seemed more blue... like a blueish tint.  Might just be some other element causing it. 

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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh good to know!  Thanks man.  I thought it might be because BTV is a manned airport and they could distinguish the two but isn't there a code for human intervention in the METAR?

I will say it is like orange outside right now.  The lighting is bizarre.  It's like a reddish glow.  Last week the smoke seemed more blue... like a blueish tint.  Might just be some other element causing it. 

Well the manned sites can override and augment the obs. Sometimes they'll throw in HZ/FU on top of the BR.

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