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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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These kind of days are annoying.  We've had so many of them this warm season, too, I've lost track.

It's when the satellite always looks like the cloud swath is about to whisk right away, but you look back at it and it hasn't moved despite moving at 40 kts. wtf - can't even see the back building edge if there is one. It's just that nightmare where your running but the hall stretches.  

I mean, the clearing has been moving ESE out of upstate NY all morning without actually gaining any ESE -

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28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s pretty amazing watching the showers just dissipate as they approach Cape Cod.

Second time this week I’ve seen that. No wonder they still are watering the gardens and lawns down here.

The roads are still mainly dry here. Gotta be less than .01 to this point

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this is kind of an unusual total baroclinic passage.

There's a cold frontal ...albeit weak up there in NY just behind a quasi warm sector wedge - which is really over-zealously analyzed by WPC.. whatever - it looks more like an occlusion pinching...  

Be that as it may, the whole thing either moves through and off the coast, or dissipates into the same aspect ...leaving the region hotter and more DP rich behind the CF. 

This is like in winter, when all the cold air is ahead of the cyclone, and when the storm is over and the sun comes out sores to 45 and snow all melts. Ha!

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Low probability for low impact heat wave, tomorrow Tue and Wed

89.6 F variety. 

Low probability because cloud and/or smoke contamination mean everything when it's a 'rounding' deal like that.

Our heatwave definitions need an update. Barely 90F for 3 days during peak summer climo is yawn worthy. 

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What a wretched July so far...

07/01 74.4  63.1  0.38
07/02 63.8  54.5  1.40
07/03 57.5  53.4  1.08
07/04 68.7  53.4  0.50
07/05 74.5  53.3  0.00
07/06 83.5  63.7  0.04
07/07 81.3  64.2  0.00
07/08 65.2  57.3  0.68
07/09 70.3  57.3  1.16
07/10 76.4  58.3  0.00
07/11 77.6  57.8  0.06
07/12 71.5  62.4  0.37
07/13 67.9  62.4  0.38
07/14 79.0  62.4  0.04
07/15 83.9  67.5  0.00
07/16 85.7  67.2  0.00
07/17 74.0  65.8  0.25
07/18 67.7  62.3  1.36
07/19 72.8  61.9  0.25
07/20 81.0  59.8  0.64
07/21 75.8  60.2  0.04
07/22 75.9  55.9     T
07/23 77.1  54.8  0.29
07/24 78.2  54.8  0.00
07/25 64.7  59.0  0.20

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Our heatwave definitions need an update. Barely 90F for 3 days during peak summer climo is yawn worthy. 

It's not very statistically significant, no -

And sensibly ... it depends on the observer.   89.6/72 just takes a bit longer to get tolerances stressed. But, who knows how/why 90 was chosen as a "heat wave" demarcating rule and not 91 ... 93 ..etc.  Probably?  Just because humans like order in nature and try to assert boundaries and rules on everything.   Base 10 numerology system, 90 it is LOL. 

Not sure if there really is any physicality behind the 90, sarcasm aside.    Personally, 82/65 starts the patience-clock. It just has a longer count down than 90/70, which is longer than 100 over 74 ...etc..  It's silly when we think of 90 "meaning" anything when we consider the reality of the "tolerance spectrum"  - unless there is some particular physical need to label that number, it seems an arbitrary setting.

I just also like the deviant inconvenience of fact being plunked into the general internet-mojo memes of the day sometimes too.  Lol. Bubble bursting.  Usually, those get ignored. 

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There are certainly going to be several shortwaves and fronts thrown our way over the next 10-14 days with that signal of troughing into the Great Lakes region so it will certainly be "active" with shower/thunderstorm chances. We will probably see a mixture of dry periods/unsettled periods with each period probably lasting 2-3 days at a time. Leading into the unsettled periods we'll see some warm/hot and humid weather and behind the fronts it will be seasonable-to-below average with very low dewpoints. 

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