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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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It's funny how relative to whatever the model illustrations there are...there's always this interpretation effort for how it can be dramatic and entertaining.

Reliance on weather -cinema ... it never goes away. 

That pattern out there looks like summer's ending frankly.

Not sure we are going to stop the hemisphere from continuing to pack the heat backward toward the SW-W.  Every time we do see the models send a ridge to 90 W, the next three runs are academically finding least excuse imagined to repack, and we end up right back in NW flow again

This has happened every august the last 7 years running.  

This is what ends up then being a winter prolapse in October and November, as imagine - if you will - pushing this look ahead seasonally with hemispheric height reduction and there you are.  

But it doesn't mean or dictate or predict the DJF mean very well... as that mid part of winter than modulates/guided by increasing compression from HC expansion. This/thus speeding up the ambient geostrophic wind velocity, so much so that in turn... de-climatizes the R-wave distribution and concomitantly f'up all the longer term geo- telecon suggesters. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny how relative to whatever the model illustrations there are...there's always this interpretation effort for how it can be dramatic and entertaining.

Reliance on weather -cinema ... it never goes away. 

That pattern out there looks like summer's ending frankly.

Not sure we are going to stop the hemisphere from continuing to pack the heat backward toward the SW-W.  Every time we do see the models send a ridge to 90 W, the next three runs are academically finding least excuse imagined to repack, and we end up right back in NW flow again

This has happened every august the last 7 years running.  

This is what ends up then being a winter prolapse in October and November, as imagine - if you will - pushing this look ahead seasonally with hemispheric height reduction and there you are.  

But it doesn't mean or dictate or predict the DJF mean very well... as that mid part of winter than modulates/guided by increasing compression from HC expansion. This/thus speeding up the ambient geostrophic wind velocity, so much so that in turn... de-climatizes the R-wave distribution and concomitantly f'up all the longer term geo- telecon suggesters. 

 

Hopefully the roles are reversed this winter and the west gets a trough and we get a massive ridge :D 

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I mean we could bring the heat back. 

It's just that this modeling persistence to block/shun it S, consummately correcting late mid/ext into backing NW continental flow after July's,  that has a recent multi-year precedence/repetition. That circumstantially tends to coax one into believing we're just destined to the same muted later summer.  So we'll see.   It almost seems like a sped up atmosphere rushes seasonal change - the visionary in me sees this as a 50 year predicament until the warm engulfing of the planet has finally penetrated and warm the poles so much that who knows what that future looks like..

I mean... we snow in October/November's like Pez ...and send 70 to 80 F in Feb's and March's?  These are happening regardless of ENSO this, or solar cycle that, SSW whatever.  

And no, this muting of later summers autumn doesn't always show up in the scalar temperatures.  It's really more of a pattern tendency that sometimes results in early chill. ..That's the take away. 

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1 hour ago, MaineJayhawk said:

New Sharon, ME getting rocked.

 

Thank God.

Screenshot_20210723-130703.png

:lol::lol::lol:
0.05" and no lightning near enough to bother our thunder-phobic dog.  :D  Those bright echoes clipped the was part of town.
Better than nothing, however - precip May 1 forward now past the 7" mark, with 60%+ of that in July.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

:lol::lol::lol:
0.05" and no lightning near enough to bother our thunder-phobic dog.  :D  Those bright echoes clipped the was part of town.
Better than nothing, however - precip May 1 forward now past the 7" mark, with 60%+ of that in July.

2nd cell thru about 3:45, looks like .10-.15" additional, and a strike at 1.5 miles distance.  (Nothing else close)  June had 12 days with measurable precip and only 1.05" total, while July is up to 14 days measurable and more than 4 times the June total, and above the average for the full month.  Temps now 2.3° BN and given forecasts, looks like this will be the first BN month since October.

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30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

COC k summer day !! Did they drown in their suits from the water weight from the storm just now?

YR3EXhy.jpg

Ha!  Got a bit of the high anvil clouds, but we full sun right now.  This was like 45 minutes ago, nothing but Chamber to your NE in the Quiet Corner.  

57E49C23-E725-4F91-82E4-C6453295584D.jpeg.f194225e620cb99aa2b1beaae0d81175.jpeg

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Surprisingly got hit with that cell that was racing southeast through RI.  Looked like some sort of area of convergence was near me as you could see things moving in opposite directions on radar before the storm came through.  They usually die out here but not this time around.  Temp dropped as well...

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