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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 hour ago, tunafish said:

first shot across the bow of summer

I dunno about that. I guess if it reminds people that's all that matters?   

Not sure that qualifies though - is 82/58 F a shot across the bow when that's just climate? 

There is obviously subjectivity to the concept of 'satb' air massing but at minimum an active NW breeze evenings that smell like frost even though they won't really fall below 43 in the bogs and dales.  The air does not feel 'fragile' for the warmth that it has, either.  There's that ineffable aspect about that 76 F day in latter August, when the sun still feels warm and it is by all rights a mild to warm day.  But the emerald blue clarity of the sky, low DPs and the steady NNW breeze has the temperature falling at the same rates as the sun's approach to the western tree-line, and it just feels naked and vulnerable.  This?  Feels to me more like normal temperate mid latitude aspects - which ironically, we have not seen much of.   It's difficult to gather one's mind around the notion of 'seasonal change homage' in July though.

I see where you are coming from; this air mass is distinctly different than it's been.  Hell, maybe climate change means that merely falling to average is such a feat, because average belies the state of the climate.  Get's confusing when the climate goal-posts are moving... 

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? Where do you pull this stuff out of? It looks like Aug will be more BN than July? July’s not even finished yet and nothing is showing a cold Aug. I mean lol 

Western ridge eastern trough NW flow, recurving typhoons and canes.

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8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Ahh. Thanks.  I won’t waste any more time dreaming of homegrown ‘54 style then. 

If this pattern continues to persist moving near the peak of tropical season we'll certainly need to watch out. What kinda pisses me off is every year you always see someone on social media hype up the crap that "SNE needs to watch out this fall" and all crap like that does is lessen the significance of that when that possibility is really there...and this really could be one of those falls. There will probably have to be some type of significant weather occurrence to really break this pattern and many long-range models actually establish a pattern which is even more favorable moving into the early fall. 

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41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If this pattern continues to persist moving near the peak of tropical season we'll certainly need to watch out. What kinda pisses me off is every year you always see someone on social media hype up the crap that "SNE needs to watch out this fall" and all crap like that does is lessen the significance of that when that possibility is really there...and this really could be one of those falls. There will probably have to be some type of significant weather occurrence to really break this pattern and many long-range models actually establish a pattern which is even more favorable moving into the early fall. 

They do?

20210722_110824.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

They do?

20210722_110824.jpg

That's just looking at D10-15.

Was talking about way farther down the road. I think the stuff I saw was looking more late August and September. 

The one thing that has been standing out to me is a persistent trough feature which at times digs into the upper-Great Lakes region. Should that theme continue into the fall and we get a scenario of a tropical system nearing the EC and the continued strong WATL block...there would be an increased likelihood for not only something to shoot up the coast but potential for enhancement from that trough (similar to Isaias last year).

Composite Plot

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That massive PV is the exact opposite of many summers which have featured higher heights there. Interesting. Definitely has led to the big heat in the mid latitudes.

Also really explains the extreme weather across Europe. I wonder where this PV strength relates historically for this period. Quite unusual not to see the PV weaken moving through the northern hemisphere summer). That may not be a good thing moving into winter...could throw some big wrenches at seasonal forecasts if this isn't taken into account (I would think). I guess there is a chance stratosphere evolution in the fall could help to weaken it but if we have a situation where conditions favor a (further) strengthening PV...yikes. Although a La nina/strong PV combo could make for some fun periods. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also really explains the extreme weather across Europe. I wonder where this PV strength relates historically for this period. Quite unusual not to see the PV weaken moving through the northern hemisphere summer). That may not be a good thing moving into winter...could throw some big wrenches at seasonal forecasts if this isn't taken into account (I would think). I guess there is a chance stratosphere evolution in the fall could help to weaken it but if we have a situation where conditions favor a (further) strengthening PV...yikes. Although a La nina/strong PV combo could make for some fun periods. 

I wonder if it would explain the unusual number of tornadoes in China too?

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

from what I've read it's both an unusually high number of tornadoes and a high number of destructive ones. 

Lol.... of course you read that - in today's feckless ethicality in news media.

maximize both.... 'oh my god run for your lives'

 

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