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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

First sunny day in weeks and effing smoke screws it up. Only #summer2021.

Another hallmark of a summer that's gone well beyond salvageable. I've seen it before, the ridge sets up in a strategic position upstream (usually somewhere in Canada) and those places bake with true summer conditions for weeks while NE is plagued with constant wet, cool, damp conditions. Then when NE finally catches a break and gets a chance at real summer weather, it gets scuttled by smoke thanks to that persistent upstream ridge that's made things ripe for wildfires.

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28 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just ran a quick errand and wow is the smoke impressive out there. Right to ground level. Passed over the highway and couldn't really see all that far up the road. 

man...made the mistake of hittin' a 25 mi ride.  At first I thought it was the heat - was sweating jungle drops. But I got nauseated mid way through.  12 mi out and my legs were bonking ( burning and gassed ) .. Calf cramping.  Couldn't figure it out.  Then it dawned on me that it might be mild inhalation issues?

I ride 75 mi a week, and run about 30 K worth. I'm into fitness... have been for years.  Good diet.  No life... all that -

So it was unusual to get that nausea ... I finished in okay time. But I canceled my yoga appointment with the hottest instructor on the planet who even laughs at my dumb jokes.  But when I called her, she canceled cuz she got a migraine - which she gets those.  So it worked out... (actually she's married so I mean that will all respects - )

but yeah the air is blue tinted the whole way. 

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just ran a quick errand and wow is the smoke impressive out there. Right to ground level. Passed over the highway and couldn't really see all that far up the road. 

So it's not just me, then. Sherman, Brookfield, and Danbury in CT all have this intense haze down to ground level obscuring hills and trees.

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55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cool temps?

Most large-scale volcanic eruptions result in so much detritus getting ejected into the air that it produces a notable decline in the average temperature due to increasing the amount of sunlight reflected. It's hypothesized that several major historical famines coincided with frosts and cold snaps from such events.

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Yeah that Euro-esque idea has been off and on in the last 4 days -worth of modeling cycles.

Not sure I buy it ..well, buy for our lat/lon.  Who would at this range - right?

But, more so because the flow is trying to set up both a +PNA/+PNAP -extension, over the top of that.  I don't know if the HC is expanded enough to really push the Pac-relay into N/A that far N ..in fact, it probably hasn't.  Push comes to shove, that many isohyses and compressed wind velocity ranging N of Lake Superior will probably confluent, and some sort of BD or frontal ablation into the eastern OV/NE regions is too physically temping for fate to avoid it ha.  

Chicago may make history there.   One note of caution, the Euro tends if anything to bias cool with 850 mb layouts beyond D5. I see it add 2 to 4 C at that level pretty routinely going from D10 to nearer terms in totality. So, whomever does end up SW of that shunt wall .. Put it this way, that D4 has 30 C over Nebraska at 850 and it is precariously prepared to eject - instead, the model mutes the air mass to "only" 22C ... Yeah, someone out there makes a 105

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah he drunk. We COC.

Did you even look at anything? You’ll be dodging more downpours it seems

While still
quite a bit drier than the first half of the week, PWATs do rebound
over 1 inch and dewpoints back into the 60s as moisture advection
kicks in in the mid/low levels. This moisture and a -16 to -18 C 500
mb cold pool aloft will contribute to modest instability (CAPE
values 500-1100 J/kg) in an environment with favorable shear for
sustained updrafts (30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear). Inverted-V
soundings suggest potential for gusty winds moreso than heavy rains.
Even so, strong forcing is lacking, so it may depend on the presence
of convergence associated with a potential surface trough extending
from a lot to the northeast. Altogether a mix of sun an diurnal
clouds with rain and some storms around.

 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you even look at anything? You’ll be dodging more downpours it seems

While still
quite a bit drier than the first half of the week, PWATs do rebound
over 1 inch and dewpoints back into the 60s as moisture advection
kicks in in the mid/low levels. This moisture and a -16 to -18 C 500
mb cold pool aloft will contribute to modest instability (CAPE
values 500-1100 J/kg) in an environment with favorable shear for
sustained updrafts (30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear). Inverted-V
soundings suggest potential for gusty winds moreso than heavy rains.
Even so, strong forcing is lacking, so it may depend on the presence
of convergence associated with a potential surface trough extending
from a lot to the northeast. Altogether a mix of sun an diurnal
clouds with rain and some storms around.

 

I did. Meh. I don’t see dews that high and maybe some iso storms.

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