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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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Technically we did tho - in June.

Didn't make 100 but .. admittedly subjective, I've often thought of 'big heat' as definable for anything over 95.

But it's relative to latitude/climate.  Ex, that's probably not big heat for DCA to PHL corridor. But N-E of EWR-LGA ...

The other aspect to consider is the HI.  If that situates over 95 for long enough the discussion is academic only and removes the personality of the thing, which shouldn't work.  So there's some gray area. 

But, no, we haven't seen hundred.  That June 25 to 29 one had 97 or 98 in the area, on at least one of those days, with a DP of 73-like... I think that was big heat -

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for the time being that looks like it's organizing into a linear complex/derecho up there about ready to threaten NW upstate NY.   One can visualize that things sweep being down to about EEN-PSM later this evening perhaps.  

But not sure if the synoptics support it...just saying the present appeal.   You do have minoring CB activity bubbling up NE of ALB and also S Maine coastal plain out ahead, so those betray that axis as having some conditional instability to work with

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

for the time being that looks like it's organizing into a linear complex/derecho up there about ready to threaten NW upstate NY.   One can visualize that things sweep being down to about EEN-PSM later this evening perhaps.  

But not sure if the synoptics support it...just saying the present appeal.   You do have minoring CB activity bubbling up NE of ALB and also S Maine coastal plain, so those betray that axis as having some conditional instability to work with

I mentioned earlier that it seemed possible a Derecho would happen up there.

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18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen quite a bit of scuttlebutt out there that it will be strong . If it is… it’s over before it begins . Hopefully you’re right with a weak Niña forecast 

Well, its not my forecast...  I only monitor sst and modeling trends.  I was only commenting on the fact that the CPC discussion didn't  indicate a strong event was likely.   I leave enso forecast up to folks with a heck of a lot more expertise in that field than I have.   Given we are only in mid-summer, I would never rule anything out. 

 

18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen quite a bit of scuttlebutt out there that it will be strong . If it is… it’s over before it begins . Hopefully you’re right with a weak Niña forecast 

 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Excellent post. 

The same size we have too on such events are just so small the margin of error is quite high. Even re-analysis of ENSO events prior to 1950...you can't really make correlations to ENSO events now and even if so...alot of the re-analysis data may be quite suspect. When you have a strong ENSO episode that's obviously going to dominate and we know what that will do...especially a strong EL Nino but if its a weak ENSO signal or maybe even low end moderate...the correlation IMO is going to be pretty small 

Agree...

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