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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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14 hours ago, FXWX said:

Over the years, I've never been overly worried about a weak La Nina; they can workout ok for New England.  Trying to simplify a winter outlook based almost solely on the enso is foolhardy, especially given the recent trend of winter enso events not adhering to many of the rule of thumb winter composites.   Old rules may not be as valid, as we once thought???

 

Gee - I wonder why that is ...

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14 hours ago, FXWX said:

Over the years, I've never been overly worried about a weak La Nina; they can workout ok for New England.  Trying to simplify a winter outlook based almost solely on the enso is foolhardy, especially given the recent trend of winter enso events not adhering to many of the rule of thumb winter composites.   Old rules may not be as valid, as we once thought???

 

Excellent post. 

The same size we have too on such events are just so small the margin of error is quite high. Even re-analysis of ENSO events prior to 1950...you can't really make correlations to ENSO events now and even if so...alot of the re-analysis data may be quite suspect. When you have a strong ENSO episode that's obviously going to dominate and we know what that will do...especially a strong EL Nino but if its a weak ENSO signal or maybe even low end moderate...the correlation IMO is going to be pretty small 

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Wrt to climate change:  I wonder if the more comprehensive environmental impact modeling takes into consideration smoke aerosols?

I mean is it built into the complex math of it -

Does smoke's reflective nature equal that of a non-human Earth clouds.  If so, is there thresholds of mass composition in the ambient space of the atmosphere.  Does that matter at sigma levels where the density of air is lower, so the same mass of smoke disperses more and so it becomes a morass of 2nd and 3rd order partial derivatives... etc...

Smoke is pale on satellite...but it is not white.  That may seem rather simplistic or unsophisticated ..but, white is white because it reflects more proficiently than dark. That isn't simple, it's just fact (not that anyone thought otherwise - heh).  So logic implies that smoke doesn't reflect as well as cloud but ... there could be some other micro-physics that are less than obviously effecting that. 

But it does reflect some, it has to.   It just is a matter of absorption versus -

Very complex, because diffused smoke particulate matter is composed of a vastly differing spectrum of compounds.  Any one of which reflects vs absorbs at different electromagnetic wavelengths.  It's like an oil refinery Bible failure and Hades on earth soot bomb probably doesn't have the same albedo to absorption ratio as say regular western typical wild fire exhaust.  I imagine there could be a theoretical spectrum, where say at one end you have comet/asteroid impacts, then ...oil ... volcanism ... woodland/wild fires ... SAL (saharan air layer) ... spread out from big to lower cost in the global heating budget.  And it matters for climate science ( obviously..) because reflecting S/W radiation doesn't end up trapped L/W radiation, in a richer greenhouse fart world.

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Looking at that yellowy .. subtle orange hued firmament with the sun just feebly strong enough to still dapple shadows under trees and shade ... I always imagine that is what it must be like on a planet that has a red dwarf for a sun.

Of course .. any such world is unlikely to have trees like we visualize of them here on Earth ... but just the quality and casting of light. 

 

 

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heh... looking at D1 and D2 hashing displays over at SPC ...

Classic timing contention for us. 

Too late today, and then tomorrow there's a line a TCU around 1:44pm N/S from MHT to Wilmantic CT that ends up a back lit wall of CB's rollin' out under the tropopause over the Boston Harbor later in the day.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... looking at D1 and D2 hashing displays over at SPC ...

Classic timing contention for us. 

Too late today, and then tomorrow there's a line a TCU around 1:44pm N/S from MHT to Wilmantic CT that ends up a back lit wall of CB's rollin' out under the tropopause over the Boston Harbor later in the day.

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... looking at D1 and D2 hashing displays over at SPC ...

Classic timing contention for us. 

Too late today, and then tomorrow there's a line a TCU around 1:44pm N/S from MHT to Wilmantic CT that ends up a back lit wall of CB's rollin' out under the tropopause over the Boston Harbor later in the day.

 

 

At this point you don’t need a severe storm but if you get one to drop a quick 2-4” in that area of CT your gonna see some problems

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Smoke getting lower. Health advisory issued

KBOS 201354Z VRB03KT 10SM BKN300 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 FU BKN300 T02670189

KMHT 201353Z 33008KT 6SM FU CLR 25/18 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP125 T02500178

KBDL 201351Z 36005KT 7SM FEW020 OVC300 25/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 FU OVC300 T02500200

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52 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

At this point you don’t need a severe storm but if you get one to drop a quick 2-4” in that area of CT your gonna see some problems

Lol...

well - to the good reader I was obviously throwing some quasi- sarcasm out with that statement.  I dunno -

it would help ( maybe ..) if the smoke would alleviate.  It's stealing hours from SB CAPE generation. It does actually seem like the sun is shining a bit more sharply to the surface as I type, and checking high def vis loop, there appears to be some thinning going on.   We'll see for today but either way, it's still probably western zone and it's later-ish spill-over

 

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Smoke getting lower. Health advisory issued

KBOS 201354Z VRB03KT 10SM BKN300 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 FU BKN300 T02670189

KMHT 201353Z 33008KT 6SM FU CLR 25/18 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP125 T02500178

KBDL 201351Z 36005KT 7SM FEW020 OVC300 25/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 FU OVC300 T02500200

I love the FU's!!!!

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59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Smoke getting lower. Health advisory issued

KBOS 201354Z VRB03KT 10SM BKN300 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 FU BKN300 T02670189

KMHT 201353Z 33008KT 6SM FU CLR 25/18 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP125 T02500178

KBDL 201351Z 36005KT 7SM FEW020 OVC300 25/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 FU OVC300 T02500200

Every ob this July deserves an FU.

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58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Smoke getting lower. Health advisory issued

KBOS 201354Z VRB03KT 10SM BKN300 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 FU BKN300 T02670189

KMHT 201353Z 33008KT 6SM FU CLR 25/18 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP125 T02500178

KBDL 201351Z 36005KT 7SM FEW020 OVC300 25/20 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 FU OVC300 T02500200

Looks like a partial solar eclipse out there right now. One would think just a bunch of low clouds until you take a picture with the sun in the shot....

20210720_133634.jpg

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