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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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22 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So we go right from spring to fall which looks like it starts this weekend...... great

Lol,

... now, we had/are having a summer - but I get the sarcasm. 

Like we said, it's just "too early" ...

I mean it's more likely those 75 to 100 kt mid level streams up there relax some as that gets closer. 

But the technology manifold/physics tends to do this from time to time? 

It's like there are background forces, but the more realized wave structures/mechanics are masking. They are long term oscillatory aspects, and way out in time the models may loose the present more realized forces do canceling interactive noise, and when they cancel out ... it leaves the long term aspect to "coax the flow orientation" so to speak. 

 It really is like revealing where it wants to go? 

I think it's fascinating.  It reminds me of 'rogue wave' physics in the open seas.  You /we know those are ... But they set up because of two physical processes:   linear    or      non-linear wave mechanics. 

The first of the two, linear is easy.   Wave A   -->       <--  Wave B     =    huge C because they super impose their wave energy.  That is linear constructive interference. 

Non-linear is when you have  2ndary and tertiary residual interference patterns that can cause the rogue wave to seemingly lurch up out of the surrounding tumult some towering amplitude too far about the mean distribution of wave amplitude to be explained by any observable interference patterns.  

It's almost like this same thing happens in the atmosphere.  Sometimes you have Alberta Clipper diving down the flow, and you have a southern stream wet juicy wave turning the corner.  That's easy ... linear wave intererence leads to bomb. Rogue-ish event due to constructive interference. 

Then you have "teleconnector convergence" - a phrase I coined years ago because I am a loser with no life and think about this shit.  oy.. But, Indian Ocean index ( say ..) sends a signal to the Del Marva, circuited through a favorable ENSO/ --> MJO transitioning. Meanwhile, the polar region happens to be setting up a -EPO ..which is not really dependent upon that array of former larger scale factors.  Either one of which could favor a storm, but when you couple them together there is a "synergistic" aspect that enhances the favorability - "favorability" in this context just means the ability to dampen interfering factors in lieu of the dominating force - which happens to be the Cleveland Superbomb ...Or 1992 Dec ...or March 1993... Feb 1978...etc.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Glad we not there, but wish we weren’t here either. Truckee sounds nice. 

Didn't want to get back on the plane this morning, but did at least get a birds eye view of the pyrocumulus we could see on the horizon yesterday.  Fortunately the air quality was pretty good this week.

20210718_115808_resize_2.thumb.jpg.442ca48b434315e190ac0239796bf6d2.jpg

 

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

11th cloudy day this month, moving it to 2nd place for July.  Still 3 fewer cloudy days than July 2009 and with about half the rain.  13+ hours of rain here, maybe 1/2" total and we're about done.

I think we (N ORH county) are at 14 cloudy to partly cloudy days so far.    CDDs are below normal

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7 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Pictures starting to come in on FB. This is from Belchertown FD. Several roads are "gone."

May be an image of road

Reminds me of the spring of 2006 or 2008 in western ME. Those scenes were commonplace. To this very day there are still some bridges in towns like Sebago and Waterford that were never fixed and the roads turned into permanent dead ends.

 

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You can see this warm front just reversed and became a BD collapsing back SW of Boston as an undercutting on vis loop -

that's ball game on Sunday July 18, 2021 for eastern zones. 

How many of these so far this month? You know summer's shot when there's more of these in July than April.

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20 minutes ago, Saguaro said:

Reminds me of the spring of 2006 or 2008 in western ME. Those scenes were commonplace. To this very day there are still some bridges in towns like Sebago and Waterford that were never fixed and the roads turned into permanent dead ends.

 

How many of these so far this month? You know summer's shot when there's more of these in July than April.

I know it

It's been weird. I really don't recall a single BD in April that really could qualitatively be one, and maybe vaguely one in May.  June maybe but it was so overwhelmingly warm if not hot, it really if so its not the same as this - not even close all three of those months put together.

There's been at least five acceleration events like what you see there on the vis imagery ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The weird part about it it? There's no S/W moving SE out of Ontario. Heights are 582 godDAM NE of Caribou.   It's almost the weight of cooler saturated air alone that's doing this.  That boundary is moving unusually slowly too - creeping

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25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Really cool satellite loop right now with boundary draped over area.  Cleared out to south of.  Sort of a low level damming going on it would seem.

 

Yeah you can see the BD oozing S/SW on vis and radar. Any showers forming along it and passing into the sfc cold sector will just help it accelerate southward.

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah you can see the BD oozing S/SW on vis and radar. Any showers forming along it and passing into the sfc cold sector will just help it accelerate southward.

But the surface low over SE NY is moving NE. So it will basically stall it out and move it north a bit before winds go NW after cold front 

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