Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

Some pretty wild videos of it coming across Long and Great Pond. It seems like a sneaky good severe weather area. Might be moving up there next year, Great Pond has some of the better bass fishing in New England. 

A few miles north of there had a hailstorm that defoliated several thousand acres, with some debarking as well, in late August 2007.  Hail 4" deep with runoff-piled chunks still 2' deep 24 hours later.  House in Rome village had damage such that insurance paid for new roof, windows and siding.

Wednesday's microburst dropped trees on several parked vehicles, and a woman from one is now on life support.  :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like every guidance I look at is going out of the way to hide how Sunday could turn out better ..jesus.

The NAM's 18z depiction for early Sunday afternoon has 850 mb RH of >75% ...but is 60% at 700, and at or < 50% at 500 and definitely less than 50% at 300 mb levels.  

This profile implies that all the moisture loading is lower troposphere and boundary layer - probably in the form of strata/'pancake' ceilings.  Naturally this to limit it's 2-metre T all the way down to a near historic 66 F for a high.

The only problem is, no other metric nor our climate supports those features.   - why is it doing that?  

     - The wind is NW at that time..i.e., down slope. 

     - The lift is gone

     - Though we dawn that day still in the cyclonic curvature bowl of the ( hint hint!) exiting trough, it is still exiting - and heights are in fact rising... That physically requires a DVM offset. 

Those three factors get more forcible during the afternoon promote improving ceilings. To mention, July 4 sun intensity is not being overcast by the higher 300 and 700 mb levels as denoted by the model's profile above - those level RH values offer at worse partly sunny and by criteria are mostly sunny if not clear, is shining that insolation power down over said  strata CU layer?    ...nope. Refuses.  

Not sure I buy that.

This appears to be similar across the bevy of guidance though. Even the Euro is drier top down, in the backside rising height of the exiting trough, ..same essentials. Yet it too seems to think the 850 mb cannot be modulated.  I dunno - seems like it can't do this but will anyway.  Be that as it may, if it we start getting illuminated windows sun burst splashing by early afternoon, it just seems the guidance is too bullish in holding onto a shit show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...