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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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QPF: There is a decent signal from the NAEFS/EC-EPS for 24 hr/1"+
amounts with some variation on expected location.  Will boost QPF
for this package and also move PoPs to the high likely/low
categorical range given increasing confidence.  Deterministic
solutions support reaching 40-60% of 24 hr 100 year rainfall
values...which suggests that while a widespread flash flood threat
is unlikely...a localized threat is possible where training cells
occur.  Overall...these thoughts align well with new day 2 WPC
Excessive Rain Outlook. For more focus on the potential hydro
impacts...see the hydro section below.

 

Man the life boats

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15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
QPF: There is a decent signal from the NAEFS/EC-EPS for 24 hr/1"+
amounts with some variation on expected location.  Will boost QPF
for this package and also move PoPs to the high likely/low
categorical range given increasing confidence.  Deterministic
solutions support reaching 40-60% of 24 hr 100 year rainfall
values...which suggests that while a widespread flash flood threat
is unlikely...a localized threat is possible where training cells
occur.  Overall...these thoughts align well with new day 2 WPC
Excessive Rain Outlook. For more focus on the potential hydro
impacts...see the hydro section below.

 

Man the life boats

Wagons - or duckboats - south.  (Except for the storm that barely missed to the north about 11:45.)

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38 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

how far south? hoping we get something appreciable (0.5"?)

Model maps have up to 1" here and more on your rock.  Seeing would be believing, though Sat into Sun might act like stratiform RA rather than convective.  We've done okay with the former but the tree-blaster on 3/26 used up all of the latter here with a single bolt.  ;)
(The storm that slipped by to my south at 1 pm grew up to severe - 60 mph, 1" hail - south of BGR an hour later.)

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36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Looks like it hit 87F here with a little rain at some point. We were in Boston where car thermo was 94    Gross dews

79/73 here.  Yuck

Didn’t realize it was that hot down there today!

We briefly touched 80F up here but most of the day the ASOS’s were 74-77F.

Currently 73/59.

Edit: I see ORH had a 74F dew this afternoon… that’s impressive for an ASOS at 1,000ft. 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you only stay in CT for 2 days? Why not a week? Every year it’s in and out with nothing going on at Stowe

Hard to line up work between my wife and I.  She traveled quite a bit last month and summer is busier for her.  Summer is actually Stowe’s busiest time as a town believe it or not.  August is highest occupancy of any month.

I’m heading back down without the wife next weekend for when my sisters and nieces will be there.  Probably will stay 4 days Fri-Mon.  Then we’ll be back a couple times in August for family gatherings.  But you’re right, we rarely stay for just a week… we do multiple short trips.  East drive though all interstate, about 3.5 hours.

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21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Other than drinking IPAs and mowing lawns, what is there to do in CT?

It’s basically visit family, golf and float around on the lake drinking those IPAs until you need a nap from all the relaxing :lol:.  If I’m doing a week long stretch of that though I’m getting on a plane and doing it at some resort somewhere.

Though to be fair, NE CT weather is about the same as a tropical island.  High dews, daily downpours, hot, and large insects.

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