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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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NAM has that, yeah -

in fact, goes from this tepid humid rainy murk to a sultry bathe house tomorrow... Not so much at sun up as amorphous warm frontal smear road-kills through but the 18z T1 pops all the way from 17C at dawn to 24 C ..which is usually a 2-meter T of 28 or 29C when the wind is off-shore and the sky is losing cloud burden. 

Then at 18z  Thur that temp is 26C !   That's like 88 to 90, and situational awareness ... DPs will be probably the highest they have yet to be during this summer thus far at that time. - watch

Whole different world

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was never forecast. It was hottest June on record. And it’s been the most humid June and July on record to date . Talk to me when you’re sitting in a puddle of your own back sweat the next three days 

It's like -4F to date thanks to insanely cool highs. Lows preventing the bottom from dropping out. June was good..I will say that. But this is just depressing. And then after a few warm days it goes to shit again. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's like -4F to date thanks to insanely cool highs. Lows preventing the bottom from dropping out. June was good..I will say that. But this is just depressing. And then after a few warm days it goes to shit again. 

Regression. 
 

Time to pay for last summer’s sun and dry weather. 

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like -4F to date thanks to insanely cool highs. Lows preventing the bottom from dropping out. June was good..I will say that. But this is just depressing. And then after a few warm days it goes to shit again. 

:twister:Violent spin.

Being down here, this is like the darkest uninspiring day I’ve had in a while lol.  If it’s done this for 2+ weeks I get why folks are sick of it.

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I've had rain on 11 of the first 13 days, and the two days that it didn't rain were cloudy. aside from an hour or 2 with sunshine here or there, it's been crap. No way to spin that. i think the last true sunny day we had was Tuesday 6/29. Avg temp in June was 71.4. So far July is 66.4

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The root of Scott's demon:

image.png.0cb41c8e943373ba9349057f74281c7e.png

It's gotten a little brighter in the ceilings over the last hour up here in the N-central interior. 

After some bullet showers, hanging over the top of this Atlantic rhea moved off and took their anvil umbrellas with them, it's opened the sky (pretty much about/above 2,000 feet) to solar max whalin' away at this shit. 

Probably, we thin all at once at 6:34 pm - seen this over and over again.  Smacks your ballz with "edging" sun late.

One of Globe's sports writers once coined the expression, 'winning is the best deodorant'  ?   I think that can metaphorically work in this situation.  We string 3 or so days of 88 to 91 over DPs in the mid 70s together, back to back, this will all be a distancing memory. 

I still think that it is interesting ( extraordinary really...) that we did this pattern annotated above, at the very top of the geophysical envelope of heights in the total tropospheric integral.   Baffles where it came up with the mechanics against the ceiling like that.   I think I know why ..as I labored earlier, having to do with HC and shit.. either way, here we are. 

There have been now 4 of these 594 historic ridge events, this one presently/fascinatingly results in negative temperature anomalies.  It's really quite a bit of a teach-able synoptic moment.

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How did you make such a cute drawing with those nearly perfect arrows and fronts?

He's just better at ms paint than you.

Although if I was grading I'd have to give a -1 for having one blue triangle on the wrong side of the stationary front.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He's just better at ms paint than you.

Although if I was grading I'd have to give a -1 for having one blue triangle on the wrong side of the stationary front.

uh huh, and maybe I did that on purpose cuz the whole situation is whack and it's a metaphor for bass ackwards - huh.   Yeah.   who's with me 

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yo Wiz ...I think with the recent guidance attempting to spill the theta-e surplussed ... global warming ( :arrowhead: ) sector over the western elevations tomorrow, that may help some convective numbers.

Anyone caught in negative CAPE production probably gets water boarded in blue-green marine rain cores for starters.  Probably wet outflow winds

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Yeah, okay - but I suspect they are low-balling the DPs in this discussion.  Hell, even the NAM has 71 DP in the machine numbers, which from my own experience is a hard thing to do for that particular guidance engine. 

"

   ...Northeast...
   A shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Northeast on
   Wednesday. A moist airmass will be in place from the Mid-Atlantic
   into western New England where surface dewpoints should reach the
   mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, the
   airmass will become moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop
   in the higher terrain of the central and northern Appalachians, with
   this activity spreading eastward into the lower elevations during
   the afternoon. The moderate instability combined with steep
   low-level lapse rates will make strong wind gusts possible with the
   better organized multicell line segments. The threat should be
   concentrated during the mid to late afternoon when instability will
   be maximized."

 

We'll see... but, considering DPs in that warm sector about to spill into the area tomorrow are 70 to 74F already, and it will be wafting in over tropical soils baked in solar max sauna... I'm -a gonna go ahead and assume our DPs will be at least that high.  Which makes me wonder what they think the CAPE values ... SB and MU, will really be if they use words that "sound" like through trials and tribulations the air mass endures and triumphs to make 68 ...LOL

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