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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Up to .66" on the day.  I think it started around 6:30.  That's a decent drink.  Now it can stop so I can play golf this afternoon

We are trying to play down here but they had the back 9 closed yesterday due to water and are trying to figure out what holes are playable today in NCT, lol.  What a summer.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

damn...so much for storms tomorrow. Looks like crap. Maybe even only isolated and probably well west

I think this is another innocuous example of how the HC expansion shit is f'ing with 'normal' circulation modes. The correlations that normally realize/situate are getting skewed.  It's not just screwing up winter by speeding the flow so vastly, that the R-wave distributions are unstable.. This is a sub -Rosby scale example. I'm certain of it, but cannot prove it without an army of grad-students to do all the work while I publish the paper and bathe in narcissistic glory ... LOL. kidding.

Longer version:  one does not typically observe cold air loading into the lower levels choking the entire synoptic-scaled region, while a west/near coastal ridge node balloons to ( yet for the 4th time this late spring into summer, too) near historic proportions.  In fact, in my 35 years of being privy to this field of science and theory?  I have never seen surface temperature struggling to rise, coincident while non-hydrostatic heights soaring to the mid 590s, not while hydrostatic thickness' are also well over 570.   I have seen thickness' be disproportionately lower during higher heights in spring - but that's related to low DP thermodynamic integration in the column.  This is not that -

We should be 100...

64

That's got to be the most extreme disconnect ever.  We're talking about shedding nearly 40 F of potential. 

So direct reason for that oddity:  The cold loading is coming from an E trajectory off the north Atlantic... a flow that originates from high pressure that refuses to settle S of the 40th latitude line.  I mean from the look of it at these standard product intervals,, it seems to hang in free space defying.  The high pressure, itself, is typically not manufactured at height intervals this upward extreme/or at the upper bounds.  But this is where the HC idea comes into play.  It's enhancing the summer polar jet, by virtue of increasing the gradient along the 55th parallel - in the means.  That sends unusually strong confluence potential through that band, as well as just organizing more wave structures that are going against the more typical summer nebular entropy quotient.  ugh.  I know.

Anyway, that organized wave spacing and enhanced confluence saw an explosive rise in heights ABOVE the 576 dm over western Ontario over the last couple of days, and now that has propagated E ..but the surface high is still be generated along that total transit of mechanics. Now centered S of NS, it is drilling mass west under heights that we dont' typically see that happening.  

Whether it is HC expansion of not... that was an unsuaully strong rising height event over Ontario, taking place at/within a range of geopoential heights ( non-hydrostatic) that typically does not do that.   564 to 582 is more typical.. Heights rise through that range, that means there is confluence and surface high pressure forms and send BDs and N-arriving boundaries down the M/A...etc.  This is doing that whole ball of wax above 582, which is unusual. 

Another casualty of all this?   convection.  Naturally, if you pin surface reading to just 70 under heights and thickness that high, there is zero omega and zero instability.  May as well completely consider the lower atmosphere decoupled entirely from any aspect above the 700 mb level - in fact, the standard chart intervals are really more miss-leading as to what the "surface" synopsis is being forced from. 

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH -4.1F month to date 

+6.82” month to date rainfall

Cold and wet.  
 

where is my summah?

We're -4.2 thru yesterday and +1.50" precip.  Since May-June were -6.1" that's only a start.  First half of 2021 was 8.7" BN, 62% of average.  If the 2nd half has a similar departure, 2021 would be our driest year by more than 3".

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54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think this is another innocuous example of how the HC expansion shit is f'ing with 'normal' circulation modes. The correlations that normally realize/situate are getting skewed.  It's not just screwing up winter by speeding the flow so vastly, that the R-wave distributions are unstable.. This is a sub -Rosby scale example. I'm certain of it, but cannot prove it without an army of grad-students to do all the work while I publish the paper and bathe in narcissistic glory ... LOL. kidding.

Longer version:  one does not typically observe cold air loading into the lower levels choking the entire synoptic-scaled region, while a west/near coastal ridge node balloons to ( yet for the 4th time this late spring into summer, too) near historic proportions.  In fact, in my 35 years of being privy to this field of science and theory?  I have never seen surface temperature struggling to rise, coincident while non-hydrostatic heights soaring to the mid 590s, not while hydrostatic thickness' are also well over 570.   I have seen thickness' be disproportionately lower during higher heights in spring - but that's related to low DP thermodynamic integration in the column.  This is not that -

We should be 100...

64

That's got to be the most extreme disconnect ever.  We're talking about shedding nearly 40 F of potential. 

So direct reason for that oddity:  The cold loading is coming from an E trajectory off the north Atlantic... a flow that originates from high pressure that refuses to settle S of the 40th latitude line.  I mean from the look of it at these standard product intervals,, it seems to hang in free space defying.  The high pressure, itself, is typically not manufactured at height intervals this upward extreme/or at the upper bounds.  But this is where the HC idea comes into play.  It's enhancing the summer polar jet, by virtue of increasing the gradient along the 55th parallel - in the means.  That sends unusually strong confluence potential through that band, as well as just organizing more wave structures that are going against the more typical summer nebular entropy quotient.  ugh.  I know.

Anyway, that organized wave spacing and enhanced confluence saw an explosive rise in heights ABOVE the 576 dm over western Ontario over the last couple of days, and now that has propagated E ..but the surface high is still be generated along that total transit of mechanics. Now centered S of NS, it is drilling mass west under heights that we dont' typically see that happening.  

Whether it is HC expansion of not... that was an unsuaully strong rising height event over Ontario, taking place at/within a range of geopoential heights ( non-hydrostatic) that typically does not do that.   564 to 582 is more typical.. Heights rise through that range, that means there is confluence and surface high pressure forms and send BDs and N-arriving boundaries down the M/A...etc.  This is doing that whole ball of wax above 582, which is unusual. 

Another casualty of all this?   convection.  Naturally, if you pin surface reading to just 70 under heights and thickness that high, there is zero omega and zero instability.  May as well completely consider the lower atmosphere decoupled entirely from any aspect above the 700 mb level - in fact, the standard chart intervals are really more miss-leading as to what the "surface" synopsis is being forced from. 

TDLR:dirty highs not that uncommon 

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Nice patch of rain moved through earlier this morning   .45" 

I’ve been posting about being semi screwed and I’ve had 5.38” so far for July in 13 days. I guess it’s all relative when locations to the south are around 10” already. The near daily moderate to heavy events have been good for the new trees. 

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve been posting about being semi screwed and I’ve had 5.38” so far for July in 13 days. I guess it’s all relative when locations to the south are around 10” already. The near daily moderate to heavy events have been good for the new trees. 

I never would’ve guessed you had 5-6” so far this month :lol:.

I think we are around 3” up north, even with today’s rain.  Still on pace for a healthy above normal July at that amount if we get 6”.

 

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I never would’ve guessed you had 5-6” so far this month :lol:.

I think we are around 3” up north, even with today’s rain.  Still on pace for a healthy above normal July at that amount if we get 6”.

 

MPV is at 2.5" for the month, which is .88" above and -.8° for temps.  Feels like a  desert compared to SNE though




			
		
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