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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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It is an unusual synoptic situation Monday through mid week.   Again we near historic non-hydrostatic heights, yet cannot/won't (in any guidance) be associated with positive temperature anomalies at the surface.  Interesting 

Longer version:  This sort of imbalanced look, where tall ridging doesn't reflect in surface temperature, that is much more akin to mid April to early June.  Lower ambient heights across Canada to the D. Straight, and then higher heights approaching from the S circumstantially causes intense confluence structures. They roll passed N Maine, sending surface high pressure anomalies down through the lower Maritime region and the butt- bangin' of New England is complete: E lower tropospheric jet sets up into the upper M/A and NE, etc, under a glance that would look like mid 80s.

This is doing that exact same behavior, but with both hydro and non-hydro static heights that would support 100 ! 

Personally, I have never seen this phenomenon at the very ceiling of the geophysical non-hydrostatic heights.  That's the unusual aspect.  We're talking 594 to 597 dm heights in a large circumvallate;  and they don't really get higher on Earth without two suns ( hyperbole).   Anyway, unusual elevated ( near the top of the atmospheric geophysical ceiling in fact) non-hydrostatic depths = mid 60s ?  fascinating - here's the coup de gras:  the hydrostatic heights, the thickness, are over 570!   So this entire oddity involving full metrical aspects - 

So why? 

It seems there are modest polar jet wind anomalies in the geopotential flow across the southern tier of Canada --> exaggerating the confluence orientation.  I dunno...perhaps owing to HC expansion shit introducing compression to the heights up there, as anyone with beef for brains would agree ...the ambient subtropic ridging owns the hemisphere right now.  You can see this all the way across the Pacific, Atlantic, through the sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Ocean... This expanded anomaly may be pressing into and enhancing gradients along 50 to 60 N. Stronger westerlies = stronger attending wave mechanics. 

It'll wane out... Confluence moves off and/or changes flow orientation etc, and the surface high normalizes.   But it's interesting that we will pass through the 4th very large and unusually tall ridge structure this warm season - which is some kind of frequency record ... christ - but this one appears to not only be neutered for heat, there may actually be modest negative anomalies in SNE during the time period in question.

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Surgical precision from here to Tamarack.

But it is absolutely crazy how every rainer is big QPF.  Sometimes it's like well hopefully we can get a swath of like a half inch of water or so.  This year it's like no, the max zone will be inches of rain every single time.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_precip_inch-6138000.thumb.png.5a1c357874cb97d2117961586f980703.png

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How could you even go out in this.. death valley
 
Today
Sunny and hot, with a high near 130. South wind 6 to 13 mph.
Tonight
Widespread haze after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 103. West wind 12 to 17 mph becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Monday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 129. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 101. South southeast wind 6 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Surgical precision from here to Tamarack.

But it is absolutely crazy how every rainer is big QPF.  Sometimes it's like well hopefully we can get a swath of like a half inch of water or so.  This year it's like no, the max zone will be inches of rain every single time.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_precip_inch-6138000.thumb.png.5a1c357874cb97d2117961586f980703.png

A little bump north from 00z. Maybe this area can finally be near the jack for once.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

A little bump north from 00z. Maybe this area can finally be near the jack for once.

this sort of reminds me of a storm track tendency in winter, whence the storm track favors NNE early, then tries ( but usually fails due to HC expansion..) to move S in Feb for 10 minutes...before a late snow(s) in Maine/March up N.  

It's like as the STR reaches apex climo circa July 18 - Aug 10, that training rains f-up PF and Tam's mid summer... lol.    Who's with me!

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this sort of reminds me of a storm track tendency in winter, whence the storm track favors NNE early, then tries ( but usually fails due to HC expansion..) to move S in Feb for 10 minutes...before a late snow(s) in Maine/March up N.  

It's like as the STR reaches apex climo circa July 18 - Aug 10, that training rains f-up PF and Tam's mid summer... lol.    Who's with me!

You’re right, never thought of it that way in the summer but it is the opposite of winter… jet lifting north with time in summer instead of going south with time in winter.

Hadley keeps flexing we’ll get rain late month and August before it heads back south? 

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’re right, never thought of it that way in the summer but it is the opposite of winter… jet lifting north with time in summer instead of going south with time in winter.

Hadley keeps flexing we’ll get rain late month and August before it heads back south? 

Sumpin' like ghat, yeah -

I mean, conjecture and hypothesis, but we draw from education and wisdom, so not merely rube guesswork reckin

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Surgical precision from here to Tamarack.

But it is absolutely crazy how every rainer is big QPF.  Sometimes it's like well hopefully we can get a swath of like a half inch of water or so.  This year it's like no, the max zone will be inches of rain every single time.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_precip_inch-6138000.thumb.png.5a1c357874cb97d2117961586f980703.png

Good prep for the upcoming NNE winter. Just shift that heaviest south a bit. Gotta clip NNJ!

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