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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Flooding is my irresponsible douche lust for excitement aspect of Met. I don't care to be in heat or ice or snow or whatever so much.  And I don't want the flood IN my basement, no... but it really is cool to look at. 

For some reason, the specter of play-ground slides barely sticking out of the water, with bottom limbs of bear-by sugar maples a mere 6 inches above the water level - haha..

We don't really get that around here unless it's like next to a river doing a Housatonic falls act... Which can be cool too -

Some of the mill towns along the Merrimack up in Lowell and Lawerence get pretty interesting ... 2005? 

After living through the March 2010 events in RI I'm all set. Rather deal with an ice storm as long as I have my wood stove. I lived above a liquor store at the time and URI cancelled classes for the week so I ended up running pumps and shop-vacs all week in the warehouse. Then you have to wake up every hour or so to make sure things are pumping. We had massive spikes in crime (e.g., shop lifting, home break-ins, vandalism) since all the police are busy blocking off roads. Business owners were standing guard at their stores 24/7.. That week Coventry and West Warwick were like living in a Mad Max-era.

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Yeah ...I dunno if it'll all go down that way ( Euro ) but the GFS fights these ridges and has been all along. It's so predictable and reliably doing so, it almost smacks as though the modelers put some param in there to force it to do that.   jesus -

It really didn't latch onto the two heat waves in June at any point ahead enough to think it had a clue they were coming. More like slowly capitulated to them as the time neared ... finally agreeing at about D4 or 5 lead. Not terrible ..I mean where is it said the present day tech needs to be altogether accurate at D6 ha.   Still it's always the last to show up - bad look. nor the interim borderline heat between the 19th and 23rd either . Last to show up ..

Meanwhile, its own GEF telecon spread has a neutral positive NAO whilst the mean sags the PNA neutral negative toward D7 + so there's room there for heat. 

We may not get a SW/W continental extension/inject into them, but... as the heat in the latter event (June) demoed, we don't need to have +22.5 C, hyper thermally charge 850 air layers to get it memorable.

The other thing is, the 2-meter Ts in the Euro have been cool relative to the 500 mb, non-hydrostatic synopsis and the 850 mb temperatures...  00z had 74 over eastern Mass under 19C and 590 heights, and the wind didn't even look like it was coming onshore - which it shouldn't be under those criteria anyway.  This model carries about with its own headaches -

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Squitos

index (11).png

Gotta start considering wettest July’s right?

it just keeps going on the long term models too.  Wet.

That thing just drenches SNE/CNE.  Tropical rains with these 6-hr progs.  Like 1-3” in 6-hr panels just rolls through across all of SNE.

218BAD0C-A28E-4B0A-B2A4-CE5A255CC565.thumb.png.241880791715134fbbe9846293aec0f2.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta start considering wettest July’s right?

it just keeps going on the long term models too.  Wet.

That thing just drenches SNE/CNE.  Tropical rains with these 6-hr progs.  Like 1-3” in 6-hr panels just rolls through across all of SNE.

218BAD0C-A28E-4B0A-B2A4-CE5A255CC565.thumb.png.241880791715134fbbe9846293aec0f2.png

Gonna take a lot to match 09's 11 plus inches. I think 38 had the record over 12

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