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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it’s over the Carolinas it would probably not retain that strength. Adjust for that and cold water once it emerges . Maybe it gets rejuvenated as it transitions ?

Yea maybe extratropical, selling the Euro.  Here are the hurricane models HWRF and HMON cross sections at our latitude.  Strong winds just off the surface. 

hwrf_tcx_05L_27.png

hmon_tcx_05L_28.png

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32 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is my 89-90 today 

For those that want the warm afternoon it'll likely get here.

There's ample clearing punching E immediately aft this last lone decaying MCS remnant as it swaths down Rt 2, presently.

Skies on hi res vis loop look to have cleared out over western MA/S VT and this is punching E at with rapidity - probably 20 minutes from Middlesex Co ranging to an hr .. hr/2 farther E.   I can see the blue on the west NW horizon now.

Temps will responds quickly in this air mass. It is not yesterday ...  we are 18C at 850 mb and when the sun kisses the earth - should that in fact happen - we're apt to witness some 5 to 6 deg temp/hr explosive spanning 2 hours, then we'll play the afternoon by ear with convection.  

That early nocturnal activity and subsequent clouds were not well handled, no - NAM ( not sure about other meso guidance but curious... didn't check them ) missed the nocturnal complex that set up a morning of debris and remnant light right packets.  In fact, it had <50% cloud level RH in recent grids - wrong.  Truth be told, when pulses of light through the window and their ensuing resonances pulled me out of slumber, the thought passed through my mind, there goes the higher side of the heat.

May still make 86/72 though

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9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Holy crap at this lightning 

What is that?  Since the bolt that blew apart the fir tree behind the house last March and another at <1/2 mile a few minutes later, we've not had a strike within 3 miles.  Since April 1 we've had 8.2" RA and over 90% has been synoptic.  Convection has been in hiding.

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