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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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The rain last night in Bethel/Danbury was absolutely insane. Haven’t seen rates like that in a while. I had no hair protection either so when I went inside the package store I asked for a paper bag to cover my head when I went back out and used it to go into/out of Walmart too then back inside the house!

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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Seem likely to lose out on the record low maxes. Only need a small break in the deck to bump it up a few degrees. Fingers crossed, if it's going to suck it might as well be a record.

ORH already at 56F. No monthly record low. Still a great shot at the daily record though. 

Kind of sucks that we couldn’t get the monthly record if it’s going to be this horrible. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You can tell this thing's weak in the troposphere ..     

Hi res vis sat loop reveals no closed structure aloft. It is in fact weakly closed between the 850 and 700 mb levels ( ~ ). Yet all this?   It's a fragile set up - so the whole surrounding hemisphere has to be pretty much vacating any forcing in allowing it - by physics.  It's fascinating ..

By the way, I mentioned this in the trailing pages of the June thread and it has re-emerged in the 00z Euro.  Tue - Thu next week have a chance at a 88-91/64 type low grade heat wave.   Similar to the sneaky heat that took place over the interior lower elevations of Metro West suburbia between the two bigger heat waves last month.  It slipped under the radar of awareness, roughly June 19 -23rd or so .. .and for some townships/backyards, there were three or four back-to-back afternoons of like 90.4F while Logan was flirting with S wind contamination and HFD was cloud rammed.  Similar look unfolds I think - 

..So long as the long cherished weekend is 100% taxed, right  lol.  

I think tomorrow has a shot of improving sky conditions tho, west and N of coastal zones. 

 

 

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Yeah, even the MEX has FIT/ASH/BED all 77/91/88 for those three days.  The Euro has the warmer synoptic appeal.

Typical for the GFS ..particularly beyond D3 ..where/whence it has sufficiently accumulated enough cooler heights on the polar side of the mean jet as a dependable, mid range crushing performance piece of dogshit -

I predicted this last winter ..heh, "predicting model bias" as it were. The GFS would not be a very good tool for early heat detection out in time, because of it's hemispheric rasping.  

Anyway, point of this is that it overcomes that native bias and at least gets Wed/Thu more +6 in the high on climo numbers - so that could be a tick or two soft due to climate weighting,  too.    My bet is that the Euro 'mos' would be warmer on Tuesday given to +18.5 C over the region, lowish ceiling RH and offshore general flow. 

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11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

record low maxes are about the best thing cold lovers can hope for in summer these days. we don't get the airmasses for record low mins anymore 

24 record low mins at the rad pit of CON in the 2000s and after quite a lull they've been picking off some in the last 5-6 years. Most recent were the 3 in a row last Sep 19-21 (28F,27F,27F) after I thought our chances of record mins in early fall had vanished.

Then there was Apr 5-6 in 2016 where CON set their all-time monthly record low (4F) and then a daily on the next day with 11F. The -21F on 2/24/2015 was a daily record and the coldest for so late in the season. They had a daily record of -17F 3 days earlier as well.

The POR goes back to 1868 too.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

24 record low mins at the rad pit of CON in the 2000s and after quite a lull they've been picking off some in the last 5-6 years. Most recent were the 3 in a row last Sep 19-21 (28F,27F,27F) after I thought our chances of record mins in early fall had vanished.

Then there was Apr 5-6 in 2016 where CON set their all-time monthly record low (4F) and then a daily on the next day with 11F. The -21F on 2/24/2015 was a daily record and the coldest for so late in the season. They had a daily record of -17F 3 days earlier as well.

The POR goes back to 1868 too.

none of those are summer

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

none of those are summer

Yeah I totally overlooked that aspect of your post. lol

Dews gone wild in summers these days. We're not touching some of those 1960s/70s records here for a long time (30s). I remember growing up with frequent 40s in the summer and now if it hits 48F just once it feels like a miracle.

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56.7° with sheet rains now…high so far 57.5°. There’s some thin spots in the overcast between the heavier showers and it’s probably enough insolation to play with the temp despite being stuck in a wet sponge.

Looks like the really heavy stuff is moving in for Ginx and DIT.

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Patients is a commodity around here... particularly for a nerved vitriolic corral of Holiday-weather abused, but it seems tomorrow might be better than these guidance, similar to what is going on out just W of the Cap District of eastern NY

We'll see.. not sure of this, but I don't see this whole thing as deepening - in fact, after this last gasping slug of death rain it throws at eastern CT now... this region may begin to translate in for tomorrow. 

 

image.png.4cd4843a41943922d4438041d467c6ee.png

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On 7/1/2021 at 9:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

In warm season we sometimes see models overzealous with clouds and rain . Wouldn’t be surprising to see less of both this weekend after Friday’s frontal stuff. You could envision breaks in the sky on Saturday in between storms 

Getting any breaks?

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