CAPE Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dews are 8-10F less IMBY than yesterday. Storms popping out west, we’ll see how they evolve. 16z Hrrr makes me sad. There was actually a front that moved east earlier- the one that was hanging just to the north and has been the focus for all the heavy rain the past couple days. Winds are more west/sw behind it. Some decent mixing. Storms today look scattered at best, but some of the CAMs do have a few popping before dying off this evening as they move east. Hug the FV3 I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, H2O said: That wasn't me. I treasured every BN temp day like it was the first Coke slurpee you get out of the machine Yes some of us here were cherishing those perfect weather days, knowing what was ahead for the next 5 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yes some of us here were cherishing those perfect weather days, knowing what was ahead for the next 5 months. Meh...it's hot. It's always hot in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Meh...it's hot. It's always hot in July. Maybe the heat will break early this year and we get a nice November. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe the heat will break early this year and we get a nice November. I always enjoy 75F on Thanksgiving, though. I mean...I'm usually in South Carolina then, so it's not that much of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Refreshing afternoon downpour in Montclair. Looks like some more action just to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Trajectory for storm formation is not the best here in western Loudoun. DP 66 and at 88 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Refreshing afternoon downpour in Montclair. Looks like some more action just to the West. Here as well. It was kinda crazy how it came. It was totally calm and silent but I could hear the rain coming through the woods as it headed my way. I could hear pouring rain for about a minute before I had a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Not looking bad for Burke to get the tip of that finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Yes some of us here were cherishing those perfect weather days, knowing what was ahead for the next 5 months. ABSOLUTELY!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 This line of storms is bringing some gusts. Hopefully it cools down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 The eastern ridge/Bermuda high begins to break down after today, so there should be increasing chances for showers/storms this weekend into early next week as the OV trough and associated front move east. It should be pretty slow moving, so for the drought worriers, decent chance of some beneficial rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Looking ahead to next week, the eastern ridge is replaced with a trough, with upper ridging building out west. This pattern should be somewhat cooler(normal temps) with better chances for t-storms as disturbances move through in the upper flow in conjunction with afternoon heating. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 14 hours ago, dailylurker said: Here as well. It was kinda crazy how it came. It was totally calm and silent but I could hear the rain coming through the woods as it headed my way. I could hear pouring rain for about a minute before I had a drop. Two bouts of thunder here and about 7 drops of rain with decaying storms. The CAMs were right on, as any convection that developed died off after loss of heating. Going to have to wait until later Saturday east of I-95 for rain chances, when better forcing arrives as the trough moves east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Lo temp 69 this morning, so starting a few degrees cooler than the past several days. Could hit 90 (yesterday's hi) anyway if more sun/less clouds. Had 0.05" from yesterday's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 3rd morning in a row starting in the fog, 65.3/64.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 19 hours ago, mattie g said: Meh...it's hot. It's always hot in July. I know, how novel...heat in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know, how novel...heat in July. This is not hot weather. No big heat advisories, etc. locally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is not hot weather. No big heat advisories, etc. locally. Yeah people get soft and then nature eats them and spits them out at 115 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 Big flip flop from the euro on the stalled front this weekend. 0z pushed it through quickly while now 12z stalls it and sets up a pretty rainy few days. Interestingly, that was the solution GFS has been showing for the last few days, but 12z went more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 I'm all in on the cell the 3km NAM drops on MBY this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Big flip flop from the euro on the stalled front this weekend. 0z pushed it through quickly while now 12z stalls it and sets up a pretty rainy few days. Interestingly, that was the solution GFS has been showing for the last few days, but 12z went more progressive Icon is slow too and quite wet. Go with the Germans and the Brits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Big flip flop from the euro on the stalled front this weekend. 0z pushed it through quickly while now 12z stalls it and sets up a pretty rainy few days. Interestingly, that was the solution GFS has been showing for the last few days, but 12z went more progressive Ug, no unless it means storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ug, no unless it means storms. Probably storms Saturday evening at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 LR GEFS and EPS continue to advertise a general trough over the eastern US, with h5 ridge in the western/central US. Atlantic ridge is relatively weak and well east. That would keep the big heat/humidity combo at bay, maybe through the end of the month. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 WB 6Z 3k NAM. Hopefully you fall under one of the blobs tomorrow evening. I could use some relief from my $500 water bill last quarter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Looks like just some scattered storms Saturday and nothing Sunday now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like just some scattered storms Saturday and nothing Sunday now. Maybe if you buy the GFS. It more aggressively brings the trough east, and it has the front to our south by later Sunday. The rain would be from late Sat into Sunday morning verbatim, and the next perturbation would result in rain to our south. Most other guidance hold the trough back to the west longer with a slower progression of the front, so there would be at least 2 rounds of possible rain for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 WPC seems to favor the slower progression, as days 2,3,4 all show precip, gradually shifting east through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe if you buy the GFS. It more aggressively brings the trough east, and it has the front to our south by later Sunday. The rain would be from late Sat into Sunday morning verbatim, and the next perturbation would result in rain to our south. Most other guidance hold the trough back to the west longer with a slower progression of the front, so there would be at least 2 rounds of possible rain for our region. 0z euro went back to the progressive solution. Hopefully I get a good soaking rain tomorrow evening and anything else is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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