CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 12:58 PM, WxUSAF said: 0z euro went back to the progressive solution. Hopefully I get a good soaking rain tomorrow evening and anything else is gravy. Expand Icon, NAM, and CMC still have a second round Sunday into Monday. The slower guidance have the WA ridge hanging on a bit longer. Might be more realistic given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 def need some rain. very crunchy up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 hopeful for the scenario of one round of convection late Saturday afternoon and another during the evening hours. If that pans out, anything extra on Sunday will just be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Serious question: are we looking at like all day heavy rain or just scattered thunderstorms next week? Leaving for Wildwood Sunday afternoon-wednesday morning and every time we try to go it usually get almost rained out...hoping to avoid that. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 The GFS is quite dry with a NW flow for most of the run beyond this weekend. Hopefully we can all score before we get into the real crispy time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 2:02 PM, alexderiemer said: Serious question: are we looking at like all day heavy rain or just scattered thunderstorms next week? Leaving for Wildwood Sunday afternoon-wednesday morning and every time we try to go it usually get almost rained out...hoping to avoid that. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Expand Sunday into Monday is questionable- depending on the exact location of the front there could be some rain esp along the coast. Beyond that, there will be a trough in place with embedded shortwaves aloft moving through, so there will be some chances for scattered showers/storms from time to time, probably afternoon/evening stuff for the most part. No indication of any washouts on current guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Yep, fat CAPE profiles tomorrow with some solid 2500-3000 values showing up on fcst soundings this morning. There's *just enough* shear for high CAPE to mostly compensate, so wouldn't be surprised to see a similar setup to Wednesday, if a bit less organized. Edit: Theta-e profiles indicate about 25K/C in between the boundary layer and mid-levels and combined with PWATs around 2", that argues for some wet microburst activity tomorrow as well. There's very little to no capping, so I would expect a bit earlier of a start time for initiation than usual. Any storms that fire early will have a good chance of being able to pulse to severe limits before weakening. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 The 12k nam would make me happy. But the 3k can gth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Hope we score a t-storm tomorrow. Off topic but I looked at that insane Feb. 1899 winter to see some numbers -- out of a 7 day period that year had 5 each record low maxes and mins, not to mention the all the snow. Crazy DY NMX NMN NPCP NS RMX /YEAR LOMX/YEAR RMN /YEAR HIMN/YEAR MXPCP YEAR MXSN YEAR 09 46 30 0.09 0.2 70 /2001 10 /1899 -7 /1899 46 /1990 1.92 1885 5.4 1906 10 46 30 0.10 0.2 68 /1960+ 4*/1899 -8 /1899 53 /1925 1.06 2018 9.3 1926 11 46 30 0.09 0.2 76 /1932 12 /1899 -15*/1899 48 /2020 1.91 1983 16.4*1983 12 46 30 0.09 0.2 74 /1999 11 /1899 4 /1899 51 /1932 1.37 1985 7.0 1899 13 47 31 0.09 0.3 72 /1951 10 /1899 2 /1917 53 /1880 1.77 1971 12.0 1899 14 47 31 0.10 0.2 73 /1990 17 /1916 4 /1905 54 /1984 0.98 1940 4.9 1885 15 47 31 0.09 0.2 77 /1949 18 /1943 -6 /1899 52 /1909 1.38 1958 12.9 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 5:40 PM, BlizzardNole said: Hope we score a t-storm tomorrow. Off topic but I looked at that insane Feb. 1899 winter to see some numbers -- out of a 7 day period that year had 5 each record low maxes and mins, not to mention the all the snow. Crazy DY NMX NMN NPCP NS RMX /YEAR LOMX/YEAR RMN /YEAR HIMN/YEAR MXPCP YEAR MXSN YEAR 09 46 30 0.09 0.2 70 /2001 10 /1899 -7 /1899 46 /1990 1.92 1885 5.4 1906 10 46 30 0.10 0.2 68 /1960+ 4*/1899 -8 /1899 53 /1925 1.06 2018 9.3 1926 11 46 30 0.09 0.2 76 /1932 12 /1899 -15*/1899 48 /2020 1.91 1983 16.4*1983 12 46 30 0.09 0.2 74 /1999 11 /1899 4 /1899 51 /1932 1.37 1985 7.0 1899 13 47 31 0.09 0.3 72 /1951 10 /1899 2 /1917 53 /1880 1.77 1971 12.0 1899 14 47 31 0.10 0.2 73 /1990 17 /1916 4 /1905 54 /1984 0.98 1940 4.9 1885 15 47 31 0.09 0.2 77 /1949 18 /1943 -6 /1899 52 /1909 1.38 1958 12.9 1958 Expand Must have been a severely -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 1:34 PM, mappy said: def need some rain. very crunchy up my way. Expand Such a huge difference from here. At 6.70" on the month already at NHK. Almost certainly going to add to that total tomorrow. Outside shot of reaching 10" this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 6:43 PM, csnavywx said: Such a huge difference from here. At 6.70" on the month already at NHK. Almost certainly going to add to that total tomorrow. Outside shot of reaching 10" this month. Expand meanwhile, I have less than 2" for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 93/74 This may be the grossest day of the summer here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 6:52 PM, mappy said: meanwhile, I have less than 2" for the month so far. Expand It has been dry here too with under 1.5” for the month. An inch of that came on the 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Just looked at my rain gauge and almost 6.5" for the month. Not sure how that happened. I thought it was closer to 3. I will have to check some local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 6:52 PM, mappy said: meanwhile, I have less than 2" for the month so far. Expand 1.6 for the month so far, and more than half that was on 7/1. Walking on my lawn feels like concrete under the crunchy grass and I'm getting big cracks in the garden beds, even with all the watering. 6.7 for NHK? I have just 7.45 for May, June and July combined! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 8:22 PM, CAPE said: Just looked at my rain gauge and almost 6.5" for the month. Not sure how that happened. I thought it was closer to 3. I will have to check some local stations. Expand Total for July here is 2.7" so far. Somehow the date setting on my station got messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 On 7/16/2021 at 9:08 PM, BlizzardNole said: 1.6 for the month so far, and more than half that was on 7/1. Walking on my lawn feels like concrete under the crunchy grass and I'm getting big cracks in the garden beds, even with all the watering. 6.7 for NHK? I have just 7.45 for May, June and July combined! Expand That's nearly double me. I'm barely at 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 On 7/17/2021 at 1:22 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: That's nearly double me. I'm barely at 4 inches. Expand Wow! Let's hope our little micro-deserts score today, because tomorrow is looking dry and we won't have another chance for a while. Gonna be nice tomorrow though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 On 7/17/2021 at 11:22 AM, BlizzardNole said: Wow! Let's hope our little micro-deserts score today, because tomorrow is looking dry and we won't have another chance for a while. Gonna be nice tomorrow though! Expand Indeed. Off to a horrendous start though. Complex of storms rolled thru all around me last night. Never got a drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Flash flood watch and heat advisory today for the metro corridor. Hopefully we get good rains today because tomorrow looks dry. Tomorrow looks like a gorgeous day actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Ridge axis remains to our west for the next 10-14 days it looks like. That should prevent any major heat during that period, although I doubt we avoid a few days in the low-mid 90s in late July. Still, probably some nice “cold” fronts. Late next week should have some nice days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 WB12Z 3K NAM 8pm. Scattered activity DC westward mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 If I don’t get at least a half inch of rain this evening, I’m turning on my sprinklers until I empty the nearby reservoir. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 First split and miss of the day. Think I'll get a head start and go ahead and water the garden. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Man it's brutal! You know it's hot when tropical milkweeds are wilting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Went for a walk w/ the pup at Quiet Waters to the dog beach - got there at 8: 30 am - already 86. Got home back here in Baltimore a bit ago and was at 92. Really, not great. Immediately soaked from the wet air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Just checked my Vantage Vue - 92F and 82dp and 71rh? Really? That's a heat index of about 113F. That's in the tropical realm. Brings back memories of Bangkok and New Delhi during monsoon season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 On 7/17/2021 at 3:43 PM, RDM said: Just checked my Vantage Vue - 92F and 82dp and 71rh? Really? That's a heat index of about 113F. That's in the tropical realm. Brings back memories of Bangkok and New Delhi during monsoon season. Expand But without the monsoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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