Hurricane Elsa

[cptcatz]

HWRF still thinks she's gonna strengthen big time. What does it see that the other models don't (or vice versa)?

[TPAwx]

27 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Florida is taking this serious. In all these years I've never seen to much proactive response to a "potential" storm, even with Irma and all the hype (ultimately justified) it didn't seem to produce so much from our local and State government.

#2 for Immediate Release, Saturday, July 3, 2021 – 6:00PM

 

GULFPORT RESIDENTS ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA

City continuing to monitor the storm, preparing for possible Tuesday impact

 

Latest Storm/Incident Developments

• The National Hurricane Center has placed the City of Gulfport in the five-day cone of uncertainty for Elsa, which was downgraded to a Tropical Storm late Saturday morning.

 

• Regardless of Elsa’s eventual track, high winds, rain, and flooding or storm surge may affect the residents in low-lying or flood prone areas during the Tuesday, July 6 high tide at 10am. Many areas south of 28th Avenue South in and along the City’s Waterfront and Marina areas could experience the most significant coastal flooding.

 

• Residents in low-lying or flood prone areas should make a plan in the event of potential flooding.

 

• Boaters: Be prepared. Listen to weather forecasts and plan ahead. Don't wait until a hurricane warning to secure your boat. Haul out your boat or add additional lines during a hurricane or tropical storm watch, which is issued before a warning, 48-hours before the anticipated onset of storm winds.

                                   

City Response/Action

 

• Self-service sandbags are available from 8:00AM to 5:00PM, Sunday July 4 at the 49th Street Neighborhood Center, 1617 49th Street South. There is 10-bag limit and proof of residency may be required.

 

• The City of Gulfport Information Call Center will open for preparedness questions on Sunday, July 4 at 8 a.m. Call 727-893-1000 and speak to a City Staff member with preparedness questions.  

 

• Web updates will be posted online at https://mygulfport.us/hurricane-center.

 

 

Advice & Information for Residents

 

• Make a plan now in case you need to shelter in place of leave your home - locate evacuation zone: www.pinellascounty.org/knowyourzone.

 

• Finalize preparedness plans: http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm.

 

• Monitor local news media, National Weather Service, www.pinellascounty.org, Facebook @PinellasCountyNews and Twitter @PinellasCoNews, search hashtag #PCElsa.

 

• Register for emergency alerts at http://www.pinellascounty.org/alertpinellas/.

 

Review your disaster plan:

 

• Please preregister for special needs shelters by calling the County Information Center at (727) 464-4333. 

 

• Pre-registration is recommended for those transporting themselves. For those needing transportation assistance, registration is required. 

 

• Residents only need to register for special needs shelters once per season, so doing it now will help you for the rest of the year. 

 

• Purchase necessary items to complete survival kit now. 

 

• Prepare your kit. Be sure to include necessary hygiene supplies and gather important papers. For those going to a shelter, we recommend that you bring face coverings and sanitizer. 

 

Review checklist online at www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm. 

 

Sign up for pet shelters now by visiting www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/petpreparedness. 

The local bulletin for you is  appropriate given the track.  Same here, we had training downpours all day and lots of street flooding, very typical.  It doesn’t take much with a TC to be impactful here, but it won’t get broader attention because it’s not a major.

The state bulletin is more about a certain attention seeking someone who’s seeking attention.

[MattPetrulli]

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

HWRF still thinks she's gonna strengthen big time. What does it see that the other models don't (or vice versa)?

Ends with a cat 1 into Ft Myers Tuesday but I am not sure how good that's worth given its rather very quick intensification overnight tonight.

[TradeWinds]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Ends with a cat 1 into Ft Myers Tuesday but I am not sure how good that's worth given its rather very quick intensification overnight tonight.

NHC talked about weakening in the next 48 hrs but potential for some strengthening after Cuba due to interaction with an ULL in the Gulf. 

[Prospero]

Just now, TradeWinds said:

NHC talked about weakening in the next 48 hrs but potential for some strengthening after Cuba due to interaction with an ULL in the Gulf. 

To me it looks better now than all day. But it might be an illusion...

[Prismshine Productions]

Recon about to enter Elsa

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Ends with a cat 1 into Ft Myers Tuesday but I am not sure how good that's worth given its rather very quick intensification overnight tonight.

Yeah. I give it respect because it’s the best intensity guidance, but just 24 hours ago it was way too aggressive and in the 24 hours before it was great. Perhaps there’s a window but Elsa would need to really avoid a long journey over the mountains. 

21 minutes ago, Prospero said:

To me it looks better now than all day. But it might be an illusion...

It’s the best convection for sure. Radar out of Cuba looks pretty interesting too and it’s slowing down just as it hits a very high OHC region. 

If Elsa’s gonna overperform, it has to do it tonight IMO.

[WxWatcher007]

IR and radar look interesting just south of Haiti. I wonder what recon will find there. 

[Prospero]

Port-au-Prince had some decent wind today and it not really very close to the center (SailFlow graphic chart below the sat).

[Double Action]

If this recent burst continues it will more likely strengthen coming into a diurnal period over deep warm water. It seems to have missed Hispaniola and looks to be slowing down some with a CDO forming.  

[Prospero]

I think I might see the LLC towards the left inside the convection as this clip progresses

[ineedsnow]

Looking better by the minute.. 

[FLweather]

48 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I think I might see the LLC towards the left inside the convection as this clip progresses

Watching that clip you probably right.

 

Elsa getting a attitude tonight.

[Prismshine Productions]

Recon finds a 1005mb center at the bottom left of that convection bubble

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[turtlehurricane]

Back from Shabbos.
 

Ran right into the mountains it seems. Nice convective blowup, but the convection is likely anchored to the mountains and might not move with the storm. 
 

Then it’s gonna run right into the highest mountains in Cuba, while slowing down drastically.

Pretty much no opportunity to strengthen until Monday afternoon when it enters the Florida Straits.... lets see how much of it is left by then... it is already much smaller and way more disorganized than yesterday. 

[FLweather]

5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Back from Shabbos.
 

Ran right into the mountains it seems. Nice convective blowup, but the convection is likely anchored to the mountains and might not move with the storm. 
 

Then it’s gonna run right into the highest mountains in Cuba, while slowing down drastically.

Pretty much no opportunity to strengthen until Monday afternoon when it enters the Florida Straits.... lets see how much of it is left by then... it is already much smaller and way more disorganized than yesterday. 

Boss man.

The LLC hasn't hit any land.

 

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Back from Shabbos.
 

Ran right into the mountains it seems. Nice convective blowup, but the convection is likely anchored to the mountains and might not move with the storm. 
 

Then it’s gonna run right into the highest mountains in Cuba, while slowing down drastically.

Pretty much no opportunity to strengthen until Monday afternoon when it enters the Florida Straits.... lets see how much of it is left by then... it is already much smaller and way more disorganized than yesterday. 

Welcome back.

Elsa looked horrible all day, in the morning could see the LLC clearly ahead of the convection. Now it is doing "something" in the convection. Elsa is moving slower so waiting to see what is next.

 

[Buddy1987]

The CDO has been mighty impressive last couple hours watching it. Now some very cold cloud tops eastern side of the LLC. Interesting to see what transpires overnight.

[Jaguars]

On current trajectory maybe it just misses the higher mountainous region in southern Cuba.  Seems like it would really be drawing a straight to shoot the gap and clear the worst of Hispanolia and Cuba.  I’d still think it’s more unlikely but maybe not totally unrealistic with the current motion.

[Double Action]

Looks to have established an impressive outflow channel to the south now and the dry air to the west is mixing out with that new wall of convection forming. I think it closed itself off. 

[Newman]

11pm update: 65mph winds and 1004mb pressure

[yoda]

Weaker still at 11

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING 
SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[yoda]

11pm map does not have Elsa returning to hurricane status at all 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few 
hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and 
northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has 
not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft 
flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central 
pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, 
the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now 
climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the 
area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt.  Elsa is forecast to 
gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer 
subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an 
additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has 
continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the 
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each 
other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA 
and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more 
westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed 
admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad 
west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top 
of the previous advisory track.

After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern 
Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level 
field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in 
intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening 
could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central 
coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at 
more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected 
after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by 
some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf 
Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear 
increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant 
strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very  
asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most 
of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the 
east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the 
previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected 
consensus models.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree 
of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to 
factor in some of this uncertainty.  For reference, average NHC 
track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, 
respectively.  The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph 
for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica 
tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman 
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant 
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida 
Keys and  Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding 
and minor river flooding will be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now
in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread
northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday,
however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due
to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S.
coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 17.9N  75.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.2N  77.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.9N  79.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.5N  81.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0000Z 24.1N  82.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/1200Z 26.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 28.0N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 32.7N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/0000Z 37.7N  74.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

[Double Action]

When’s the next recon?  This thing is exploding right now. 

[yoda]

Just now, Double Action said:

When’s the next recon?  This thing is exploding right now. 

Um... apparently now if you read the discussion 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah it’s still in there and about to examine the convective burst.

[Double Action]

My bad I didn’t see the discussion. 

[TradeWinds]

35 minutes ago, yoda said:

11pm map does not have Elsa returning to hurricane status at all 

I think it's been that way since last night. 

[TradeWinds]

33 minutes ago, Double Action said:

When’s the next recon?  This thing is exploding right now. 

It's just an impressive tower right now tho. I read local radars are not showing any wrapping.