Hurricane Elsa

[Prospero]

18 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Stay on topic. Some of you need to read more and post less. 

Posted last night...

Duly noted, guilty as charged.

So obviously Elsa is becoming a more serious met discussion where people need to have facts and professional opinions. But for we who have very serious TSOCD and enjoy nothing more than staring at models, sats, stats, reports, while having a beer or two, or few, when can we have a Banter to post and banter our passion (non-offensive), less than professional opinions (guesses, wishes, fantasies), and memories as pure 100% entertainment on current TS subjects we live and breath?

In the mean time, I'll try to keep my fingers off the keyboard as much as I can...

 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Posted last night...

Duly noted, guilty as charged.

So obviously Elsa is becoming a more serious met discussion where people need to have facts and professional opinions. But for we who have very serious TSOCD and enjoy nothing more than staring at models, sats, stats, reports, while having a beer or two, or few, when can we have a Banter to post and banter our passion (non-offensive), less than professional opinions (guesses, wishes, fantasies), and memories as pure 100% entertainment on current TS subjects we live and breath?

In the mean time, I'll try to keep my fingers off the keyboard as much as I can...

 

Just created one. Not all of your posts are off topic IMO, so I hope you continue to provide your local perspective here too. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Hurricane Elsa really reminds me of hurricane Nate whereas they were both in favorable environments but forward speed capped their development as they struggled to keep fully vertically stacked over time. Similar satellite presentations as well. I think Elsa should maintain current intensity up until the islands and I doubt she’ll strengthen much more given the rapid forward speed. Beyond that, land impacts and shear (GFS greatly increased the shear after the system interacts with Hispaniola) will clearly be the driving factors intensity wise. Pretty potent little mdr system for this early in the season and I’m truly impressed it strengthened into a bona fide hurricane in the eastern Caribbean 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

37 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If Elsa goes over Cuba, she's dead and won't threaten Florida much. If she splits the uprights, she's more of a gulf of mexico threat, but I think she's too far north to do that. 

Cuba is a long island with most of the mountains in the East, a near perpendicular quick passing over Cuba won't destroy it.  The Eastern mountains or a shallow angle that keeps it over land for a prolonged period, can kill it.  Last few GFS/HMON and HWRF runs show the difference in intensity depending on where and how fast it crosses Cuba.

[buckeyefan1]

22 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Posted last night...

Duly noted, guilty as charged.

So obviously Elsa is becoming a more serious met discussion where people need to have facts and professional opinions. But for we who have very serious TSOCD and enjoy nothing more than staring at models, sats, stats, reports, while having a beer or two, or few, when can we have a Banter to post and banter our passion (non-offensive), less than professional opinions (guesses, wishes, fantasies), and memories as pure 100% entertainment on current TS subjects we live and breath?

In the mean time, I'll try to keep my fingers off the keyboard as much as I can...

 

There's usually a pretty good balance of excellent discussion mixed with some playful banter in here. It's one of the reasons this board has been around for decades.  The trolls on the other hand.....sigh

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just created one. Not all of your posts are off topic IMO, so I hope you continue to provide your local perspective here too. 

Thank you  Agreed 

[FLweather]

6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Cuba is a long island with most of the mountains in the East, a near perpendicular quick passing over Cuba won't destroy it.  The Eastern mountains or a shallow angle that keeps it over land for a prolonged period, can kill it.  Last few GFS/HMON and HWRF runs show the difference in intensity depending on where and how fast it crosses Cuba.

If it runs parallel and offshore along Cuba the mountains can enhance the lift and help strengthen the storm.

But after watching last night... Not really shocked it became a hurricane today.

Will be interesting to see what nocturnal intensification happens tonight.

As the upper levels cool off from the solar radiation today.

[Prospero]

There are plenty of potential impacts for Tampa Bay even if Elsa is a weaker storm that is not a direct hit. Tampa Bay is shallow and it doesn't take much wind to pile up the water, as we all know. This model does not seem like a huge threat, but an onshore strong wind for several hours at high tide would create a real problem.

No sand bags being filled yet, but I bet if the track does not change much by noon tomorrow people will be lining up to get some bags in Gulfport.

EDIT: I spoke too soon:

City of Gulfport response/action

 

• The City’s Public Works Department continues to prepare drainage systems and facilities ahead of the storm event.

 

• Self-service sandbags will be available from 8:00AM to 5:00PM, Saturday and Sunday, July 3 and 4 at the 49th Street Neighborhood Center, 1617 49th Street South. There is 10-bag limit and proof of residency may be required.

 

• The City of Gulfport Information Call Center will open for preparedness questions beginning Sunday, July 4 at 8 a.m. Call 727-893-1000.

 

• Web updates will be posted online at https://mygulfport.us/hurricane-center.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Really happy to see that we have high altitude recon out there right now sampling the environment ahead and around the hurricane. That'll be important for the guidance even as today it seems that the guidance has narrowed a bit. 

Low level recon flight is en route and should be there shortly. 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon descending into hurricane now. IR presentation had degraded a bit but microwave imagery is mixed on the current organization of the inner core. 

[Prospero]

Didn't know I could place an .mp4 video.

Elsa looks strange to me...center shifted east? Or the convection is just displaced?

 

[turtlehurricane]

Here comes Shabbos, no internet for 25 hours. Looks like when I come back that’s when Elsa will be riding right into the mountains of Hispaniola, so even then we still won’t know what’s really gonna happen with this thing.

ive yet to see a storm take this path and do anything significant to SE FL. Probably will be a big disorganized tropical storm coming through the Florida straits and that’s it.

[cptcatz]

Yeah the convection is looking weird for the past couple hours. Recon should be in the center in a matter of minutes which should shed some light. 

[WxWatcher007]

8pm update

85mph
995mb 

Recon found 996.3 mb extrapolated recently

[WxWatcher007]

Center sonde

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 0:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 14.4N 65.1W
Location: 284 statute miles (458 km) to the SSE (167°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Marsden Square: 043 ( About )
 

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level	Geo. Height	Air Temp.	Dew Point	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1000mb	-13m (-43 ft)	This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
999mb (29.50 inHg)	Surface (Sea Level)	26.8°C (80.2°F)	26.0°C (79°F)	205° (from the SSW)	23 knots (26 mph)
925mb	675m (2,215 ft)	23.6°C (74.5°F)	22.2°C (72°F)	225° (from the SW)	21 knots (24 mph)
850mb	1,413m (4,636 ft)	20.0°C (68.0°F)	19.1°C (66°F)	260° (from the W)	12 knots (14 mph)
700mb	Information Unavailable

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:45Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 14.46N 65.16W
- Time: 23:45:16Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 14.40N 65.09W
- Time: 23:49:48Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 708mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 205° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 26 knots (30 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

[Prospero]

It does look like it is ramping back up again on IR.

[Prismshine Productions]

Is Elsa about to do some incredibly stupid crap where a new LLC stacks under the convection? Seen that dance quite a few times the last few years...

[NorthHillsWx]

Mid level shear/rapid forward progress is winning. All of the strides Elsa made earlier in the day at forming an inner core has been erased 

[Looking to the skies]

If Elsa hangs in there SHE will defy the computer model odds.  Almost every model at some point have said Let Her Go. 

I have had a model send her directly over me at least 3-4 times already at different runs

[WxWatcher007]

13 hours ago, FamouslyHot said:

Those are some cold cloud tops near the center. Also, lots of transverse banding from what I assume to be the shear the storm is affected by. Does anyone have some info on what causes this/what this means?

Wanted to make sure I got to this. I’m really simplifying it but basically the deep convection/cold cloud tops near the center are a sign that a tropical system is capable of intensifying. 

Think of the dynamics already at play in the center of a tropical system. When the air rises in convection, it translates to lower pressure and when you get these areas of tremendous lift near the center, it can allow for organization of an inner core which makes more efficient use of the mechanisms that create hurricanes. Importantly, it takes time for the “chain reaction” to become self sustaining. That’s again a huge oversimplification, but it’s the general idea.

[WxWatcher007]

Fantastic discussion tonight. 
 

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate 
that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and 
surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind 
speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled 
was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were 
collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring 
just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been 
lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central 
pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde.

The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt.  There remains little 
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The 
latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies 
nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h, 
the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about 
1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF 
forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast 
track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the 
ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution 
no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should 
continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h, 
accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the 
time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be 
less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn 
northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness 
in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba 
and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula 
on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the 
southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is 
essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely 
follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA 
simple consensus model.

Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level 
air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core 
convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA 
G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated 
a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have 
been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as 
the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and 
upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned, 
which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during 
the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of 
Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not 
showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water 
beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow 
regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be 
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, 
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of 
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up 
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then 
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to 
the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity 
forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows 
only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles 
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the 
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well 
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on 
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late 
tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola 
and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash 
flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy 
rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in 
significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba. 

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.8N  66.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 16.1N  69.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 17.6N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.0N  76.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.5N  78.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 22.1N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0000Z 23.7N  81.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/0000Z 27.7N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 32.4N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

 

[Double Action]

Elsa is firing off convection right  over center right now. Question will be if this can wrap fully around the core given the forward speed. If so we might see a stronger storm develop like HWRF has indicated. Next 12 hours will telling. 

[WxWatcher007]

Awfully disheveled appearance today as the outrageous forward motion takes a toll on Elsa. The most critical part of the forecast period is arriving and will answer what the down range potential is. Will Elsa pinball along the mountains of the Greater Antilles? The first test is SW Haiti later today…

[Prospero]

This is an odd look, like a crater or volcano:

[WxWatcher007]

Night and day appearance compared to yesterday. Definitely an ugly look this morning with the LLC exposed. 

[jbenedet]

Weaker storm, not vertically stacked means a much further west track, as the low level easterly flow predominates. My initial thoughts on an earlier recurve were wrong despite the intense trough over the eastern CONUS for this reason. The GEFS is illustrating this quite well now.

I think risk is now tilted in favor that Elsa ends up west of the current NHC cone. And that would translate to much less land interaction with Cuba and a lot more time over open water in the GOM. And we all know what that means in terms of vigilance.

A weaker storm over the next few days could  mean a much stronger storm in the end.

[Akeem the African Dream]

On 7/1/2021 at 8:20 AM, Akeem the African Dream said:

looking forward to the circulation outrunning the convection and decoupling 

 

very little chance this survives to become anything notable 

looks awful 

should be downgraded at 8am, however I’m sure they will wait until 11

[cptcatz]

A spot of deep convection just popped up over the LLC. Might this be its last chance?

[FLweather]

GFS shows a weak land fall WC of FL. Canadian east and offshore of FL.

Interesting enough it's the NAM and just about out of it's time frame. 

But NAM is essentially a open wave heading towards the Yucatan.

HWRF shows landfall SW FL heading NE around Orlando and Daytona

[cptcatz]

Nice shot of the convection over the LLC

[BYG Jacob]

Not dead yet