Dbullsfan22 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: nice nascar lineup on DK this past Sunday. Too bad you had to split first place Thanks just drove home from Trinity over to Wesley Chapel. Pretty decent rain but the winds are still pretty calm. Been very uneventful so far for me but the night is still young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Honestly, the radar presentation looks like a typical afternoon sea breeze storm complex, lol. Knew this was a fragile core. Imo was definitely a hurricane multiple times earlier in the day, but absolutely not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Wow, shear wins. I've never seen a hurricane get smushed like that. Like a bug against a windshield. I'd be so depressed if I was chasing this thing or if I lived in Tampa, would be the same feeling as doing an entire 8 ball of cocaine and running out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Wow, shear wins. I've never seen a hurricane get smushed like that. Like a bug against a windshield. I'd be so depressed if I was chasing this thing or if I lived in Tampa, would be the same feeling as doing an entire 8 ball of cocaine and running out. LOL yeah I remember Don fizzled in like two advisories in South Texas years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: LOL yeah I remember Don fizzled in like two advisories in South Texas years ago. Josh chased Don too… 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The radar presentation has really crapped out over the last hour. Definitely looks better for us. The strongest winds are a couple hours away, but driving sideways rains are not an issue right now. We are good on rain lately, don't need a few inches. Looks like drier air and clear skies for morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Unreal how quickly the inner core dissolved on radar. I'm in St. Petersburg and we're in what should be a very strong inner band and it's a total non event outside right now. Little rain and a little wind, but nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Josh chased Don too… Sometimes you hit a grand slam and sometimes it's a pop fly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I wouldn’t count this storm out yet. It’s literally done this every day just about since it was named. Gets going, starts to get an inner core, then gets disrupted by shear/land/dry air. It could cycle back quick with a new convective burst. Just one of those systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 75mph/995mb at 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 This thing is lame AF. Cane? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This thing is lame AF. Cane? There is no way this is a hurricane still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This thing is lame AF. Cane? Slop 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 WS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight. Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast. Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I can't believe this stayed a hurricane. Probably the ugliest "hurricane" on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 It collapsed when it finally became vertically stacked I love tropical. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I can't believe this stayed a hurricane. Probably the ugliest "hurricane" on record. Barry exists 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It collapsed when it finally became vertically stacked I love tropical. Looked best at highest pressure, when a hurricane looked horrible. Been a weird one. As far as here, the Fat Lady has not sung yet, but I'm looking forward to sleep in a couple hours or so with power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Well in all seriousness, while I think we all agree it's not a hurricane, as @NorthHillsWx said this system has a pattern of pulsing up and down. I mean just in the last hour we see more prominent banding features on the east side of the circulation, and the first pass by recon tonight showed 70+ kt FL winds. I can see how Elsa has a burst that brings in some bigger wind to some coastal spot. NHC is all about continuity so this isn't terribly surprising. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Doesn't look like a hurricane, but it definitely looked good earlier. Still better looking than Hurricane Barry 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I still have my Pinellas Co phone# but didnt get any alerts on it. But I live in landlocked Birmingham now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight. High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore. 3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight. High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore. 3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher. Seems like Elsa is a little behind schedule and the onshore wind will be at high tide. 3-5 is about right based on the history around here. It doesn't take much, and there is wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 New Video on Hurricane Elsahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Czm7j8iE0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Windy but dry here in the sucker hole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Clearwater Beach reported a gust to 56mph about 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 The inner band is about to come over me here in pinellas. I’ll see what it brings. So far we have had some gusty wind nothing to write home about and the last hour heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Latest NHC track and spaghetti models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just woke up and checked out the backyard. A few small branches and twigs came down, but pretty mild all in all. Anna Maria Island had a gust to 72 mph at 3:00 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Elsa is doing her best to to make one final run at strengthening. Some 70kt velocities showing back up last few frames, albeit at distance from Tampa. Also, a lot of lightning near coc last few frames. Definitely more organized now than at any point since it was south of Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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