Hurricane Elsa

[jbenedet]

My guess is this ends up much further east. SE coast threat. Big trough over the east—much earlier recurve. Trough will miss but influence a more northward track than current guidance.

[GreekWeatherGod95]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My guess is this ends up much further east. SE coast threat. Big trough over the east—much earlier recurve. Trough will miss but influence a more northward track than current guidance.

Coast Rider maybe? Or will it curve OTS

[Akeem the African Dream]

looking forward to the circulation outrunning the convection and decoupling 

 

very little chance this survives to become anything notable 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

My guess is this ends up much further east. SE coast threat. Big trough over the east—much earlier recurve. Trough will miss but influence a more northward track than current guidance.

Gefs  agrees with you

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

looking forward to the circulation outrunning the convection and decoupling 

 

very little chance this survives to become anything notable 

Tropical  storm is notable 

[WxWatcher007]

I wouldn’t be biting on any longer range intensity or track solution right now. Ensemble guidance is still very wide 4-5 days out.

Also current intensity matters a lot less here than it’s inner organization. The more organized it becomes before the Lesser Antilles, the more likely it is to survive the Caribbean IMO, even if that doesn’t translate into wind speed early on.

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

takes more than a lopsided tropical storm for me, however if you set a low bar then maybe 

I just want it to change the wind direction so we can have a couple of nice days

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said:

Coast Rider maybe? Or will it curve OTS

My guess is the first trough misses but influences a more northerly track. At that point it depends if a ridge builds over the top of it, or another deep trough comes in first and sends it OTS. 
 

Landfall discussions are pointless at this juncture. I’m just saying the initial recurve happens earlier and makes it an east coast threat instead of a west coast FLA., GOM, threat.

[Master of Disaster]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Tropical  storm is notable 

Not only that. It beat last years record for the earliest 5th named storm. That's def notable. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

looking forward to the circulation outrunning the convection and decoupling 

 

very little chance this survives to become anything notable 

Agreed. Good luck with that track at this time of year. That’s a tuff area even during peak climo

[MJO812]

Latest cone

[floridapirate]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed. Good luck with that track at this time of year. That’s a tuff area even during peak climo

I'm a neophyte when it comes to this stuff, but isnt the rule of thumb that storms get blown apart when passing over Cuba because of the mountains?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

I'm a neophyte when it comes to this stuff, but isnt the rule of thumb that storms get blown apart when passing over Cuba because of the mountains?

 

Mountains disrupt the low level center of established storms. Less organized weaker storms can sometimes make it through the mountains or, be completely torn apart: 

I wasn’t referring to the mountains of Cuba or Hispaniola though. I was referring to the environment of the eastern Caribbean which tends to be hostile for a number of reasons  

[Tezeta]

1 hour ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

everyone will remember where they were when this occurred 

there are a few things I can look back on and always recall where I was.

1 challenger disaster

2. 9/11

3. Elsa becoming the earliest named e storm in a season 

 

Add in the Boxing Day tsunami and I think this list is accurate 

[SnowenOutThere]

33 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

I'm a neophyte when it comes to this stuff, but isnt the rule of thumb that storms get blown apart when passing over Cuba because of the mountains?

 

Shear is the main one due to the trade winds, then you have all of the mountain islands making the area bordered by land that shreds storms so storms have to thread the needle between land. That is the extent of my knowledge on why its a graveyard, if you are smarter than me please correct me. 

[David-LI]

12z GFS east of last run. Much closer to Florida coast compared to 06z run. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS much closer to Florida west coast compared to 06z run. 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

Mountains disrupt the low level center of established storms. Less organized weaker storms can sometimes make it through the mountains or, be completely torn apart: 
I wasn’t referring to the mountains of Cuba or Hispaniola though. I was referring to the environment of the eastern Caribbean which tends to be hostile for a number of reasons  

Case in point: Laura ORGANIZING over the Cuban mountains last year...

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[wizards93939]

        TROPICAL STORM ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N  50.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 01.07.2021    0  10.1N  50.4W     1011            33
    0000UTC 02.07.2021   12  11.5N  54.2W     1010            35
    1200UTC 02.07.2021   24  12.5N  59.1W     1009            41
    0000UTC 03.07.2021   36  14.2N  64.5W     1008            42
    1200UTC 03.07.2021   48  16.1N  69.6W     1008            42
    0000UTC 04.07.2021   60  17.3N  73.8W     1009            37
    1200UTC 04.07.2021   72  18.6N  76.8W     1008            40
    0000UTC 05.07.2021   84  19.5N  79.6W     1009            34
    1200UTC 05.07.2021   96  21.0N  82.5W     1012            32
    0000UTC 06.07.2021  108              CEASED TRACKING

[floridapirate]

13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Case in point: Laura ORGANIZING over the Cuban mountains last year...

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Is that common or an outlier?

[David-LI]

Euro showed nothing last run. I trust the king.

[wizards93939]

Just now, David-LI said:

Euro showed nothing last run. I trust the king.

Gfs is good with tropical cyclones when it has the Ukmet on its side.

When it doesn't go with the Ecmwf. Seen this with Irma , Harvey and Issias and other storms recently. 

[Orangeburgwx]

Is that common or an outlier?

Really an outlier

Normally a weak storm will survive those peaks intact, but it in this case, they tightened and amped the core to the point it quickly gained hurricane status when hitting the gulf

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[wizards93939]

 

Yesterday's 12z run had this as a much stronger tropical cyclone than the current state and today's 12z initialization.

If its overamplifying it initially, that's why it survives the track.

However if you continue to decrease the cyclone intensity within each run, it will suddenly poof the system in the Caribbean .  This is due the mid level vort and low level vort not really established, then you add the extra trade winds and they further decouple then they try to go over terrain ( which can slow them down and organize) , but the shear near the US is not favorable so that then negates it.

[Orangeburgwx]

Something to point out:

5pm motion: 285
11pm motion: 280
5am motion: 275
11am motion: 280

Keeps wobbling, I wonder if that is from the sheared nature and fast motion?

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[turtlehurricane]

I’m in the cone!!!!

[Windspeed]

28 mph is just screaming in the tropical latitudes. I cannot imagine Ela wrapping convection upshear quickly as the system continues at that forward speed but who knows? The mid-to-upper easterly flow may also ramp up tomorrow and allow more alignment / stacking. Either way this probably remains status quo the next 24-36 hrs.

 

Here is a good thread by Papin on Elsa:

 

Here is new video up by Cowan as well:

 

 

[Tezeta]

I hope it stays weak and embedded in that easterly flow. If it threads the needle between development and dissipation we can keep it out of the greater Antilles and get it further west, hopefully eventually into the GOM where we can get a real system going. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just outrageous forward motion @Windspeed. Practically supersonic. That’s a way to get from the central Atlantic to Tampa in 5 days  

[WxWatcher007]

Down 1mb at 2pm FWIW. Not much