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Hurricane Elsa


WxWatcher007
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11 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Welcome to Pinellas County, FL! Enjoy your stay! The best to place to be (or NOT to be) for Elsa.

If the power is on tomorrow, we have great food and fun down here!

Come visit Gulfport, not too far and BayNews9 is already here because our cool little town floods in every storm. Not a good thing, but we are kind if used to it.  ;)

Admittedly a bit jealous.  Being from southern New Jersey, we don't get this kind of weather often.  I'll be in Gulfport for work next week at this time - a week too late, haha.  Hoping you all experience minimal disruption and damage but get to see some nice gusts!

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I've been outside enjoying the stiff breeze. It feels so good, so many storms we feel that. It's an awesome experience, watching the clouds fly by with a warm tropical wind from a storm.

Yet, it is starting rain and might not stop for a bit. I do see a break in the radar a little while out and will go back out.

My yard should be secure as far as flying projectiles that can break windows (mine and my neighbors). All the weak trees are already gone by other storms. South, East, and North is open street and only risks are flying debris from other people's yards. My backyard on the West side is where our tropical oasis is with Palms, 2 old Live Oaks, a small pond, and all of our plants and "stuff." That is our risk factor. I have everything over 3ft put away, and we are protected quite a bit from the wind. But even just now when still standing in the backyard thinking that exact thought, a branch fell when the wind was not even strong. UGH

In for a ride, excited, scared, but on my birthday I could not have planned a more invigorating party. Hope no major cost to anyone and not even one life harmed.

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Elsa definitely took a big jog to the NW just now on radar. Tampa definitely has some sort of deflector shield

I hope so. Maybe it is me that will help deflect it if it does, the most excited storm fanatic in Florida.

My profile name is "Prospero", the magician who created the Hurricane in the Tempest. But I assure you 100% I did not put any magic into making this a storm. I just watched it play out since day one.

I am putting a little magic into having Elsa skip us some pain and misery while being entertainment.

Has anybody else figured out that Elsa is somewhat based on Prospero? Elsa is the nickname of Elizabeth. John Dee who Prospero was based on was Elizabeth's astrologer and Dee is known to produce a storm that helped England win a battle with Spain. There is more too.

I know, CRAZY talk! LOL

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Are you surprised by that considering the shear it’s undergoing?
I am, she is a deeper storm than this morning and the shear vector for the midlevels is out the west-southwest, which should have pushed her more east but it hasn't...

The mid-afternoon recon had her center at 25.4N 82.95W
Last recon fix was 26.8N, 83.4W

So she is still heading NNW, not N/NNE

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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18 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

Admittedly a bit jealous.  Being from southern New Jersey, we don't get this kind of weather often.  I'll be in Gulfport for work next week at this time - a week too late, haha.  Hoping you all experience minimal disruption and damage but get to see some nice gusts!

South Jersey represent! I’m out in Atlantic county man and I feel the same way you do. Would love to truly witness a hurricane at one point and not an extra tropical Hybrid decaying mess. Don’t get me wrong I do understand the impact storms like this can have on lives and wish everyone the best but as a weather nut you can’t help but want in on the action 

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9 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

I am, she is a deeper storm than this morning and the shear vector for the midlevels is out the west-southwest, which should have pushed her more east but it hasn't...

The mid-afternoon recon had her center at 25.4N 82.95W
Last recon fix was 26.8N, 83.4W

So she is still heading NNW, not N/NNE

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Could be a wobble. I also remember a few 12z members showed a jump towards land approaching Sarasota then a jog back W before N. I thought it was odd but might be realized. 

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1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

Could be a wobble. I also remember a few 12z members showed a jump towards land approaching Sarasota then a jog back W before N. I thought it was odd but might be realized. 

Probably a wobble. These things don't really go in a straight line. I've learned that lesson firsthand lol. 

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That said, it doesn't matter a ton with regard to conditions along much of the west coast of FL. This half eyewall is going to scrape a good part of the metro Tampa area unless there's a bigger move to the west in the next few hours. The southwesterly flow on the backside of the hurricane is still going to cause surge issues as well. 

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17 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Power is off!!

Hope I will be back...

Darn. I’m sure I’ll be next. BTW happy birthday. Iam new here but already feel like Iam home. Bridges are closed and police blocking travel to the beach strip as I tried to go. Still close to water and seeing some gusts. I too hope nobody gets hurt or any damage but these systems are exciting. 

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 1:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 12 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 7th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 27.0N 83.3W
Location: 84 statute miles (136 km) to the SW (217°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.8°C (75°F) 115° (from the ESE) 43 knots (49 mph)
1000mb 25m (82 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 120° (from the ESE) 42 knots (48 mph)
925mb 710m (2,329 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.4°C (69°F) 135° (from the SE) 38 knots (44 mph)
850mb 1,451m (4,760 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) About 15°C (59°F) 120° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30 mph)
700mb 3,109m (10,200 ft) Other data not available.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:53Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 27.03N 83.29W
- Time: 0:53:41Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 27.06N 83.32W
- Time: 0:58:39Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1002mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 45 knots (52 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
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57 minutes ago, Double Action said:

Darn. I’m sure I’ll be next. BTW happy birthday. Iam new here but already feel like Iam home. Bridges are closed and police blocking travel to the beach strip as I tried to go. Still close to water and seeing some gusts. I too hope nobody gets hurt or any damage but these systems are exciting. 

Power back on, for now. Appears I was the first to report it for this outage with two blocks out. When I went to the Duke energy outage map, we were first of three areas. Lucky! The trucks were ready and fixed whatever happened, "wind related".

It was too early for us. "No way! It hasn't even started yet!!"

it's not too bad right now, I was outside almost the whole time...

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The radar presentation has really crapped out over the last hour.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy how quickly it came apart in terms of radar appearance. Totally fitting for Elsa though. It has struggled to maintain any organizational progress its entire life cycle. 

Edit: pressure went up 5mb from the first recon center fix. 

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18 minutes ago, Double Action said:

Tampa has an Indian burial ground that protects us. I have heard that and I now fully believe it. 

Guess that burial ground was on break in 1921 when Tampa had 150 mph winds in a cat 4 direct hit. 

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Rain has not been too bad here yet. That is nice so far, being outside feeling and listening to the wind is amazing. Not even strong yet but the distinctive sound, the palms swaying wildly, even the giant Live Oaks twisting and dancing due to some "invisible" force is incredible. Wind is one of the most impressive forces on Earth.

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