Prismshine Productions Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 No ETA given I would make a joke here, but it would be a year lateSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 You can see on visible, the convection being sheared to the east. If anything, this enhances the flood threat, especially inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 40 minutes ago, FamouslyHot said: A lot of convection firing up quickly this morning near the center. It’s all east of the center, which is exposed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 My wife and I just rolled in our SunSetter canopy. We haven't done that since Hurricane Eta last November. I'll take down bird feeders later today, but moving vulnerable potted plants to more secure areas now. Wind chines have to go down. Don’t forget to lock the doors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Definitely making an attempt at a formative eyewall this hour. Wrapping some convection to the NW side of the circulation. Some pretty significant wind reports from the keys indicate it would not take a terrible amount of intensification for this to briefly become a minimal cane. Definitely would have the half-a-cane look though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Recon en routeAlso, she trying her damnest to go Gulf CaneSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Definitely making an attempt at a formative eyewall this hour. Wrapping some convection to the NW side of the circulation. Some pretty significant wind reports from the keys indicate it would not take a terrible amount of intensification for this to briefly become a minimal cane. Definitely would have the half-a-cane look though Yeah man, borderline Cat 2 winds ~4800ft above the surfaceSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 NHC nudged east. Anyone in Tampa wanting to see what a strong TS is like is going to get their wish. This one is coming closer to us than ETA and could be a direct hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Yeah man, borderline Cat 2 winds ~4800ft above the surface Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Yea the radar velocities would seem to indicate that this is likely a hurricane, and if this storm continues to pull *some* convection westward enough to maintain that strong band near the center, the hurricane hunters will likely verify this is a minimal hurricane at this juncture. I’m pretty sure this is about the ceiling for Elsa though and that “eyewall” is very fragile. This will likely go through periods where the shear wins and it erodes just to have another convective burst make another attempt. In other words, she’s likely a minimal hurricane right now and I’d be expecting fluctuations in intensity through landfall though I could also see weakening once it passes Tampa and a lot of the circulation moves on land. Impacts will be the same regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yea the radar velocities would seem to indicate that this is likely a hurricane, and if this storm continues to pull *some* convection westward enough to maintain that strong band near the center, the hurricane hunters will likely verify this is a minimal hurricane at this juncture. I’m pretty sure this is about the ceiling for Elsa though and that “eyewall” is very fragile. This will likely go through periods where the shear wins and it erodes just to have another convective burst make another attempt. In other words, she’s likely a minimal hurricane right now and I’d be expecting fluctuations in intensity through landfall though I could also see weakening once it passes Tampa and a lot of the circulation moves on land. Impacts will be the same regardless I figure they will be conservative and call it a 70 mph TS, even if there is reasonable evidence to upgrade, for this very reason. They don't want to have to downgrade a few hours later and confuse the public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 41 mph gust here in Gulfport just now with a little rain blob coming through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I figure they will be conservative and call it a 70 mph TS, even if there is reasonable evidence to upgrade, for this very reason. They don't want to have to downgrade a few hours later and confuse the public. And not one part of me would disagree unless they find definitive hurricane force winds at the time of the flight: call it what it is. I’m glad they held off, likely for the reason above, about increasing wind speeds based purely on radar data earlier. I think this storms window to be a hurricane is short. Increasing shear, decreasing oceanic heat content, and increasing influence from the eastern circulation being ashore means it has between now and when it passes offshore or near tampa to be a hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Highly Asymmetrical appearance; highly asymmetrical impacts. You could be 25 miles west of the center and be experiencing much better weather than those who are 150 miles to the east. For all the disorganization Elsa is maximizing impact by maintaining the center off shore allowing tropical storm impacts to affect the entire west coast of Fla. The eastern side is also aligned with the background flow, adding to the surface wind-speeds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, Double Action said: NHC nudged east. Anyone in Tampa wanting to see what a strong TS is like is going to get their wish. This one is coming closer to us than ETA and could be a direct hit. Stronger more stacked cylclone= greater influence from mid level/upper level steering flow out of SW, more easterly track. Weak/exposed system= LLC riding more easterly components in low level steering flow, coc much further west Impacts for Tampa will be same regardless and likely maximized if the COC goes west of there by 20 miles bc that puts the strongest banding over the bay/city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, Double Action said: NHC nudged east. Anyone in Tampa wanting to see what a strong TS is like is going to get their wish. This one is coming closer to us than ETA and could be a direct hit. I love a good storm, but a little concerned. Hermine, Irma, and Eta took out any weak trees in and next to our yard so what we have left (two very large strong Live Oaks) should hold up pretty well. Yet still a lot of their old branches will fall and some of them can be heavy indeed. The power grid is much better since Irma as Duke rebuilt much of it, but still expecting power to go out. I just hope its not weeks for it to come back on like with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 70 mph winds in the Keys now. Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Hurricane Hunters just found 60 MPH winds outside the eye wall edit: Hurricane Hunters just measured 70 MPH flight-level winds near the western side of Elsa. Not at the strongest side yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, Prospero said: I love a good storm, but a little concerned. Hermine, Irma, and Eta took out any weak trees in and next to our yard so what we have left (two very large strong Live Oaks) should hold up pretty well. Yet still a lot of their old branches will fall and some of them can be heavy indeed. The power grid is much better since Irma as Duke rebuilt much of it, but still expecting power to go out. I just hope its not weeks for it to come back on like with Irma. Do yourself a favor and purchase a portable generator, you can't go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: Hurricane Hunters just found 60 MPH winds outside the eye wall Yep, pretty impressive wind values for outside the convection. With radar velocities remaining steady I think there’s a likelihood this is a very odd looking hurricane atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Really unfortunate to see signs of intensification beating back the dry air and shear. This track was going to be bad news for the TB region as a tropical storm, and we don’t need a stronger system. Out of town for Elsa so just an observer for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Really unfortunate to see signs of intensification beating back the dry air and shear. This track was going to be bad news for the TB region as a tropical storm, and we don’t need a stronger system. Out of town for Elsa so just an observer for this one. Even though Elsa looks ragged on satellite and radar, it's a gulf storm. We've seen time and time again where storms go into the gulf bathwater and either spin up or can fight off relatively hostile conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 I had my hopes up earlier Elsa would stay clear to the west and remain under 50mph. Now I’m not so sure and Tampa looks to be on the wrong end of her stick. I’m off to batten down the hatches and secure the yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 New advisory up to 70mphSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 000 WTNT65 KNHC 061745 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER... Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Really thinking they’re going to find hurricane force winds in the NE quad. Looking as healthy on radar as it’s looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Pressure dropped 1007 to 1000 mb, still high given 70 mph winds but significant drop given Elsa's BP history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shannalynn Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Double Action said: NHC nudged east. Anyone in Tampa wanting to see what a strong TS is like is going to get their wish. This one is coming closer to us than ETA and could be a direct hit. I’m in Tampa Bay and I definitely wasn’t wishing for it to move east more or be stronger than a TS. Hoping for the best! I just don’t want to lose power! Stay safe all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 We could be seeing the enhancement going on as it interacts with that frontal boundary that was mentioned. Why do these things always hit at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 About to make the first pass through the rough stuff. I’m thinking we get a quick update statement separate from the 2pm if they find hurricane force winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Some decent flight level winds in the center of the blob of convection. Core is starting to look very exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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