FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: The shear vector, I.e. the jet stream, could push Elsa well east of track and slow it down. That plus the effect of weather enthusiasts on the entire Florida peninsula praying for it to go east of track. Well that's what I thought too from your last post. The jet stream has done capture this. GFS might be too far west but the possibility of the weaker further east Canadian may be a outlier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 We are having terrible red tide in Tampa Bay. It's really widespread....I've seen tons of dead fish at downtown St. Pete, Indian Rocks Beach, Tierra Verde and in the upper bay near Tampa. If we get a storm surge here it could flush the bay and in theory this may help with the red tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Looking at WV. Clouds are heading due north of the center. I'd say all forward motion to NW is done and over with. Elsa should start turning NE overnight. With the jet to the north helping with the outflow. Decent outflow to the south. I'd expect Elsa to strengthen tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 NHC 5 pm position solidly north and west of actual center. They’re just extrapolating in lieu of recon data... but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, FLweather said: Looking at WV. Clouds are heading due north of the center. I'd say all forward motion to NW is done and over with. Elsa should start turning NE overnight. With the jet to the north helping with the outflow. Decent outflow to the south. I'd expect Elsa to strengthen tonight. That would be quite the deviation from the incredibly tight model consensus. Is this wishcasting or an actual possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 New cone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area Yeah it will absolutely be an impactful TS for the Tampa Bay area unless there is a major track shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: NHC 5 pm position solidly north and west of actual center. They’re just extrapolating in lieu of recon data... but yeah. You can see some rotation on the Key West radar. Maybe mid level circ? I guess the LLC is at the point of the yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: That would be quite the deviation from the incredibly tight model consensus. Is this wishcasting or an actual possibility? Not wishcasting if you want to call it. But per radar and satellite. Elsa has been going no where fast since 2pm. Pretty solid trough axis setting up across central FL this evening. Not your typical seabreeze and meso scale boundaries. From Tampa to Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 If it's going this slow over the Florida Straits things could get crazy fast, the Gulf Stream is nuclear hot right now. Intensity models / the NHC are underestimating it cause of the 'shear', but shear can help fuel rapid intensification in the right circumstances, like Hurricane Humberto in Texas many years ago. And yeah, all the convection is happening downshear in NE quad, dragging storm towards the NE. Key West better be taking this storm seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: If it's going this slow over the Florida Straits things could get crazy fast, the Gulf Stream is nuclear hot right now. Intensity models / the NHC are underestimating it cause of the 'shear', but shear can help fuel rapid intensification in the right circumstances, like Hurricane Humberto in Texas many years ago. And yeah, all the convection is happening downshear in NE quad, dragging storm towards the NE. Key West better be taking this storm seriously. Curious on that jet stream interaction on this TS ? Not sure why WC wont mention it as a factor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said: If it's going this slow over the Florida Straits things could get crazy fast, the Gulf Stream is nuclear hot right now. Intensity models / the NHC are underestimating it cause of the 'shear', but shear can help fuel rapid intensification in the right circumstances, like Hurricane Humberto in Texas many years ago. And yeah, all the convection is happening downshear in NE quad, dragging storm towards the NE. Key West better be taking this storm seriously. That convection over the Orlando area crazy atm. Bad lightening and heavy rain and gusty. It's lighting up. But I was sitting on the back porch. Almost looked like 830-9 pm. And I smelled ozone. Been along time since I smelled ozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 The impact and last day of the track is going to mirror ETA. Unless of course it comes in stronger than ETA but right now looking pretty similar. There’s going to be a greater impact to south Florida though due to proximity as ETA came in from farther out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Just now, Double Action said: The impact and track is going to mirror ETA. Unless of course it comes in stronger than ETA but right now looking pretty similar. Heading to NY and New England subforums. I live in Texas, go there only in the cold season usually, Hurricane Belle and the Blizzard of 78 made me the weenie I am today. 32813 Orlando, a whole year in the Navy, a hard freeze in December, March frost, lots of sea breeze collisions storms, nothing tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Has anyone addressed what appears to be semi-linear low level features on the Western side. I've seen arc clouds from dry air intrusions and cold outflow, these are actually triggering some sustaining storms. not sure I have ever seen an arc cloud from dry intrusion trigger sustaining convection. Tropical Tidbit image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Elsa strengthening over Cuba. That sounds about right. She must have found a valley to squeeze through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserirl I love watching this guy on twitch. He storm chases on the plains alot but will do Hurricanes. Hes on the prowl for quick spin ups 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: If it's going this slow over the Florida Straits things could get crazy fast, the Gulf Stream is nuclear hot right now. Intensity models / the NHC are underestimating it cause of the 'shear', but shear can help fuel rapid intensification in the right circumstances, like Hurricane Humberto in Texas many years ago. And yeah, all the convection is happening downshear in NE quad, dragging storm towards the NE. Key West better be taking this storm seriously. No matter what happens I'll find an eye during the night time convection burst. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 54 minutes ago, FLweather said: That convection over the Orlando area crazy atm. Bad lightening and heavy rain and gusty. It's lighting up. But I was sitting on the back porch. Almost looked like 830-9 pm. And I smelled ozone. Been along time since I smelled ozone. The line that came up and through Treasure Coast and Over Lake O was not any Seabreeze but maybe outflow from feeder band? Much more humid today than it has been all summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Floridian8211 said: Ok I was afraid of that but thanks why would you be afraid of 15-25 mph winds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Elsa looks like two disjointed tropical storms stacked on top of each other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Remember when watching radar tonight, the MLC and SLC were NOT aligned when the storm made landfall. I think what a lot of folks are seeing as the surface low is actually the mid level rotation, noted in just about every reconnaissance flight leading to landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 I lost power here 25 minutes ago from a lightening strike. Good news is I have a generator and it works. First real test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Remember when watching radar tonight, the MLC and SLC were NOT aligned when the storm made landfall. I think what a lot of folks are seeing as the surface low is actually the mid level rotation, noted in just about every reconnaissance flight leading to landfall Yep, and the question will be will the two align enough overnight to allow for some modest intensification. I think the answer is no given the projected shear, but sometimes it’s helpful to shed a weak LLC over land to allow for some reformation near a more robust MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 41 mph gust at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach. But that's not uncommon during thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Recon heading to Elsa, did they get clearance to fly in Cuban airspace?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052351 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 ...ELSA PASSING JUST EAST OF HAVANA CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 81.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly north through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Recon heading to Elsa, did they get clearance to fly in Cuban airspace? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Sounds like they won’t go in until it is back over water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 I dont know if im allowed to post twitch streams here but this guy has awsome view now https://www.twitch.tv/stormchaserirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Recon heading to Elsa, did they get clearance to fly in Cuban airspace? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk I say they just fly right in, sounds like a fun way to start WW3 a lot better than other ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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