Prospero Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 I was playing with this tool and am surprised at how far away from Gulfport some storms were that created real memories. TS Debbie was over 100 miles from Gulfport and we had a significant surge and flooding along with TS winds and 16 inches of rain. We had a band from Hurricane Hermine that took down an oak tree in our yard and was over 150 miles away. Tropical Storm Eta was almost 50 miles away and gave us the highest surge since I have been back in Florida (2003). https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.83/27.78/-82.73&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiIzMzcwNyIsInNlYXJjaFR5cGUiOiJ6aXBjb2RlIiwiY2F0ZWdvcmllcyI6WyJINSIsIkg0IiwiSDMiLCJIMiIsIkgxIiwiVFMiLCJURCIsIkVUIl0sInllYXJzIjpbIjIwMjEiLCIyMDIwIiwiMjAxOSIsIjIwMTgiLCIyMDE3IiwiMjAxNiIsIjIwMTUiLCIyMDE0IiwiMjAxMyIsIjIwMTIiLCIyMDExIiwiMjAxMCIsIjIwMDkiLCIyMDA4IiwiMjAwNyIsIjIwMDYiLCIyMDA1IiwiMjAwNCIsIjIwMDMiXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMTUwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6MTYwLCJidWZmZXJVbml0IjpbIk1pbGVzIl0sInNvcnRTZWxlY3Rpb24iOnsidmFsdWUiOiJ5ZWFyc19uZXdlc3QiLCJsYWJlbCI6IlllYXIgKE5ld2VzdCkifSwiYXBwbHlUb0FPSSI6dHJ1ZSwiaXNTdG9ybUxhYmVsc1Zpc2libGUiOnRydWV9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Looks to be much better organized despite the westerly shear. Difference is it’s not plowing directly into it at breakneck speed. It also has picked a less hostile area to cross. The water stays exceptionally warm and deep right up to land and the mountains of Escambray are east of Cienfuegos. The only thing in the gulf to hold it back is going to be shear. Going to be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Prospero said: I was playing with this tool and am surprised at how far away from Gulfport some storms were that created real memories. TS Debbie was over 100 miles from Gulfport and we had a significant surge and flooding along with TS winds and 16 inches of rain. We had a band from Hurricane Hermine that took down an oak tree in our yard and was over 150 miles away. Tropical Storm Eta was almost 50 miles away and gave us the highest surge since I have been back in Florida (2003). https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.83/27.78/-82.73&search=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 Prospero I am a graduate of Poplarville, and PRCC. I used to come down to Waveland on Sunday afternoon after church with a family that went to the church I attended at Picayune. Jumped off their pier and went swimming and such. I loved Gulfport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 This system is a big player yet people keep putting it down. The Caribbean is quite the graveyard for young TCs we are on track to displace that region in terms of ACE and Landfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shannalynn Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area I’m in Bradenton and been watching to see how this will play out for us here in the Tampa Bay Area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 The GFS actually shows the worst possible approach to tampa. Would rather have it go right over my head. Even the NHC forecast puts us on the worst side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: Elsa has connected with the Jet Stream. This could help fuel intensification and expansion of the storm, and it will particularly enhance rain/wind coverage in the NE quadrant. Very exciting stuff! Probably be tracking further east now since it connected. Highly doubt it goes much further west of Tampa Bay. South of Tampa into the SW portions of FL. Up the spine of FL NW of Orlando and NW of Daytona. Exiting some where near or south of Palm Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 I don't think I buy it, but the Euro tries to go to town in the eastern Gulf as Elsa makes final approach to Florida. Very close to a hurricane by the time it makes landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Euro coming in hot with a borderline cat 1 near Cedar Key 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdutateGA Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 I’m in Bradenton and been watching to see how this will play out for us here in the Tampa Bay Area!Also in Bradenton! We should have an interesting next couple of days, that’s for sure. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shannalynn Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, EdutateGA said: Also in Bradenton! We should have an interesting next couple of days, that’s for sure. . Definitely! We just need to sit tight I suppose and figure what she does in the next 12 hours! I work out on the Island so I’m trying to figure out if I’m going in in the morning for a few hours and then work from home tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday lol….ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CampergirlFL Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Eastern Hillsborough county here, between Tampa and Orlando (I-4 corridor), keeping a close eye. Trying to decide on the hurricane screens. What direction would the winds be coming from? My house faces North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floridian8211 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Hi I'm an hour south of Tampa. What is going to be the dirty side of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 On 6/30/2021 at 5:11 PM, Newman said: First cone: 5 PM on June 30, I'd say they were on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Floridian8211 said: Hi I'm an hour south of Tampa. What is going to be the dirty side of this storm? The east side of the storm, which is what you will be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said: Eastern Hillsborough county here, between Tampa and Orlando (I-4 corridor), keeping a close eye. Trying to decide on the hurricane screens. What direction would the winds be coming from? My house faces North . More than likely. The I 4 corridor will be in the NE quadrant. Just depends how exactly the center tracks. Hard to say for sure as far as your back yard is concerned. But any where from E/NE to E/SE to S/SW. If the center parallels I4 roughly... Anywhere NW of I4 will have a more northern component compare to south of I4 will have more of a easterly and southern fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floridian8211 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: The east side of the storm, which is what you will be in. Ok I was afraid of that but thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Why is there no mention on that Jet Flow influence on this tropical storm? Curious is they take that into account for their 5pm update and or if the jet stream will influence it to go more east and into Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Prospero said: 5 PM on June 30, I'd say they were on target. I might sound sick... but I sure am looking forward to Elsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, CampergirlFL said: Eastern Hillsborough county here, between Tampa and Orlando (I-4 corridor), keeping a close eye. Trying to decide on the hurricane screens. What direction would the winds be coming from? My house faces North . South then SE at the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Have been vacationing in Naples at my parents house since Friday. Some nasty storms traversing the area currently. Ton of lightning with these things. Only the beginning for the area. Have a flight out of Ft Lauderdale at noon tomorrow. Not feeling too good about the prospects of that flight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Made landfall in Cuba. Should be exiting in 4 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Looks like the first big bands should be getting here in Boca Raton within the next few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: Have been vacationing in Naples at my parents house since Friday. Some nasty storms traversing the area currently. Ton of lightning with these things. Only the beginning for the area. Have a flight out of Ft Lauderdale at noon tomorrow. Not feeling too good about the prospects of that flight. I know what you mean. I'm supposed to go to Lakeland tomorrow. A incoming TS or hurricane and have to deal with the I-4 corridor has a knot in my stomach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 In the first rainband here. Some nice breezes, some spurts of heavy rain, nothing crazy yet. I see some Mesowest sites gusting to 40 mph though in Broward, in the heavier cells in the band. This is nice, but the downer is that there's no bands behind this at all. So will be a long time till we see anymore action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 The last advisory as of 2pm has forward motion at 14mph to the NW. Unless my eyes are playing tricks... Elsa has hardly moved per radar since then. I think the forward motion to NW might be backing to a slow northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, FLweather said: The last advisory as of 2pm has forward motion at 14mph to the NW. Unless my eyes are playing tricks... Elsa has hardly moved per radar since then. I think the forward motion to NW might be backing to a slow northward movement. The shear vector, I.e. the jet stream, could push Elsa well east of track and slow it down. That plus the effect of weather enthusiasts on the entire Florida peninsula praying for it to go east of track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbullsfan22 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 I work in Trinity, FL about 20 minutes north of Tampa and 15-20 minutes east of the coast. Absolutely beautiful weather today. We will see if anything comes of Elsa tomorrow. I imagine we start seeing some conditions middle of the day and picking up into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: The shear vector, I.e. the jet stream, could push Elsa well East of track and slow it down. that plus the effect of weather enthusiasts on the entire Florida peninsula praying for it to go East of track. Haha that actually made me laugh out loud. If enough of us pray I think we could make it happen. My backyard weather station just recorded a temp drop from 91 to 79 in the last 30 minutes, sustained wind is at 13.4 mph with gusts to 20 mph. It's looking very ominous out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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