BYG Jacob Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Looks like a formative eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Anyone else buying the NW movement on the 2pm advisory?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 12Z Euro finally catches on snd shows Elsa as a closed low making landfall around Sarasota and continuing north northeast toward north central FL. Elsa doesn't look very intense but 6"+ rains along and near the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 IR looks like a mess but on visible it actually looks like a nicely rotating storm. If the low and mid centers are stacked it seems like it could still intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. Almost all models take Elsa way East and Southeast of me but 12z NAM and NAM Nest are much further west. While seeming unlikely, anyone have any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Elsa’s moment has come and gone. Going to take too much time given the poor convective envelope to organize and increase the intensity. It does seem to have become a much larger circulation so I bet it maintains through Cuba. Mid grade tropical storm for Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 39 minutes ago, chasestormz39 said: Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. anyone have any thoughts on this? sounds awful tbh I’d look for a better place to vacation if it was me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 25 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: sounds awful tbh I’d look for a better place to vacation if it was me Sounds like you’re a pretty boring person tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 hour ago, chasestormz39 said: Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. Almost all models take Elsa way East and Southeast of me but 12z NAM and NAM Nest are much further west. While seeming unlikely, anyone have any thoughts on this? Will be there next week. We have done it on the 4th before and it was a bit too much excitement so there at least some people more boring than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, chasestormz39 said: Sounds like you’re a pretty boring person tbh If you want a real vacation come to Cape May. That's all I got because Akeem knows what's best. You will get Elsa at her peak and a nice vacation at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, hoosierwx said: Will be there next week. We have done it on the 4th before and it was a bit too much excitement so there at least some people more boring than you. We usually don’t go this week for that exact reason but only time we could make it work this year. Love the beaches here. Okay, back to Elsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 hour ago, chasestormz39 said: Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. Almost all models take Elsa way East and Southeast of me but 12z NAM and NAM Nest are much further west. While seeming unlikely, anyone have any thoughts on this? It's out of the NHC cone. I'd trust them over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Went to Walmart and all the water is gone. Main effect of Elsa so far in SE FL is the subsidence ahead of the storm is causing the highest temps of the summer so far. Heat index 103 F... on a normal day it starts storming before it ever gets this hot, but Elsa is stopping any storm development. Elsa’s outer bands are just starting to spread through the Florida Straits, might take till tomorrow morning to see any action tho at the slow speed this storm is moving. Most importantly, Elsa is starting to look really impressive, it’s expanding in size and organizing quickly, and I’m starting to get excited, especially cause it’s past all the mountains now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 2 hours ago, chasestormz39 said: Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. Almost all models take Elsa way East and Southeast of me but 12z NAM and NAM Nest are much further west. While seeming unlikely, anyone have any thoughts on this? You'll be fine, except paying extra high rates for everything. The week after, even though still Summer Rates, would be less expensive and less crowded. But if you like to party and spend money, PARTY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Went to Walmart and all the water is gone. Mt wife is demanding I buy 6 gallons of water even though I am still moving gallons of water from Irma from one closet to the next depending on what space we need at different times. I'd pay you a buck a gallon to take my old ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 77.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone. The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions. Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 2 hours ago, chasestormz39 said: Vacationing in Destin/Miramar Beach. A beach front condo on Clearwater Beach would be the place to be this week, but July has been booked solid for months now with my vacation condo client. That said, any chasers planning to be here need to find a room or condo now as the occupancy rates are the highest for July in many years. You know, the ol' Quarantine Rebound Vacation Booking Effect (QRVBE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Cuban radar page will be very useful for tracking Elsa over the next day http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES Elsa deserves some sort of medal for threading the needle 100%. It really missed all the landmasses in the Greater Antilles. Radar shows its off to the west of the Cuban mountains now. Anyone remember a storm threading the needle like this? I sure don't. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 from the Caribbean radar composite from this web site https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Composite_Resp.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Cuban radar page will be very useful for tracking Elsa over the next day http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES Elsa deserves some sort of medal for threading the needle 100%. It really missed all the landmasses in the Greater Antilles. Radar shows its off to the west of the Cuban mountains now. Anyone remember a storm threading the needle like this? I sure don't. Laura last year?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Sloppy looking tilted storm. This one couldn’t stack against the shear and would have been gone if it didn’t avoid land. The funny thing is the shear actually saved it by relocating those centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Double Action said: Sloppy looking tilted storm. This one couldn’t stack against the shear and would have been gone if it didn’t avoid land. The funny thing is the shear actually saved it by relocating those centers. A more diffuse circulation is invulnerable to any kind of land interaction. These things don't just dissipate from atmospheric memory this is a meaningful area of rising air and convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 I will say, over the past few years, with Tampa Bay in and out of cones now and then, I do not remember consistently being in the middle of any cone for a few days solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 With 3 days over the Southeastern Gulf I see no reason why this will not obtain hurricane status. The weight of memory is not enough to convince me that this is a minor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said: Went to Walmart and all the water is gone. Main effect of Elsa so far in SE FL is the subsidence ahead of the storm is causing the highest temps of the summer so far. Heat index 103 F... on a normal day it starts storming before it ever gets this hot, but Elsa is stopping any storm development. No kidding. My backyard is registering 90 with dewpoint of 78 (heat index 104) in Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Whos ready for the nightly convection burst that makes everyone think it is finally getting its act together and then by morning it looks even worse than the morning before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Whos ready for the nightly convection burst that makes everyone think it is finally getting its act together and then by morning it looks even worse than the morning before. I that an eye I see?? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: With 3 days over the Southeastern Gulf I see no reason why this will not obtain hurricane status. The weight of memory is not enough to convince me that this is a minor threat. Yeah you’re totally right, except for the lack of forecasted strengthening and limiting influence of the forecasted shear. What are those experts thinking anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Yeah you’re totally right, except for the lack of forecasted strengthening and limiting influence of the forecasted shear. What are those experts thinking anyway? The whole weakening bit was predicated on a disrupted or non-existent circulation. 20kts of shear is like a stimulating breeze for a well-developed TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now