Hurricane Elsa

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I say they just fly right in, sounds like a fun way to start WW3 a lot better than other ways.

It has nothing to do with national airspace. The Hurricane Hunters prefer to fly over water because there is less turbulence than compared to land. This allows for better recon data.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Recon heading to Elsa, did they get clearance to fly in Cuban airspace?

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Serious answer, the Cuban government gave the US Air Force and Hurricane Hunters permission to enter Cuban airspace for hurricane purposes a while ago.

[Prismshine Productions]

Serious answer, the Cuban government gave the US Air Force and Hurricane Hunters permission to enter Cuban airspace for hurricane purposes a while ago.

Well that sure was nice of them...

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[SnowenOutThere]

Found the totally legit eye.

[MJO812]

[TradeWinds]

I plotted all estimated center locations by the NHC since 5 AM today.  The movement certainly looks like it shifted from NW to NNW.  I suspect they'll get better coordinates when the plane flies in but it will look odd to see any jump to the W.  The trend favors the east cone track but time will tell.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Qualifies as tightly clustered guidance 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like it may have nudged NW a bit since 18z?

[Hotair]

So seems like Elsa will stay well offshore of Tampa / St. Pete.  Still will likely see 3-5 ft storm surge and flooding rains and perhaps up to 50 mph wind gusts.   
 

Does that sound about right for Tampa presently? 

[TradeWinds]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like it may have nudged NW a bit since 18z?

Looks east FL thru SC but still exits by VA Beach.

Edit: the difference seems to be favoring a more NNW track rather than NW exiting Cuba. 

[rogue]

18 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

I plotted all estimated center locations by the NHC since 5 AM today.  The movement certainly looks like it shifted from NW to NNW.  I suspect they'll get better coordinates when the plane flies in but it will look odd to see any jump to the W.  The trend favors the east cone track but time will tell.

Interestingly, looks like Elsa went through the gap between the two more mountainous areas to the west and east. Radar images, although easy to misinterpret as precip doesn't necessarily line up neatly with central pressure, does seem to suggest a more northward forward motion of Elsa than the NHC's 325 degrees NW report at 8:00 PM. 

[TradeWinds]

11 minutes ago, rogue said:

Interestingly, looks like Elsa went through the gap between the two more mountainous areas to the west and east. Radar images, although easy to misinterpret as precip doesn't necessarily line up neatly with central pressure, does seem to suggest a more northward forward motion of Elsa than the NHC's 325 degrees NW report at 8:00 PM. 

It just seems that SW shear is acting like a wall. That flow on water vapor seems to be like a wall. Might be reason for the NNW jog. 

[cptcatz]

Interesting satellite presentation right now. Looks like the convection near the center north of Cuba is really waning while the big blob south of Cuba is firing off. Will that affect the structure or future impacts?

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface 
observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, 
having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. 
Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate 
values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent 
surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying 
just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured 
reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, 
the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past 
three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous 
track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving 
north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a 
deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to 
central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge 
over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then 
north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late 
Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a 
mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern 
United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly 
eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad 
east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, 
with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly 
reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida 
peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a 
small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has 
been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a 
condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in 
about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains 
similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 
kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC 
forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will 
be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the 
intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning 
is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the 
cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity 
forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight 
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa 
approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast 
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding 
possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.  Mid to late 
week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and 
southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban 
flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and  the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 23.5N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 24.9N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.9N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 31.6N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  08/1200Z 34.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/0000Z 36.9N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 43.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 50.5N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

[rogue]

14 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

It just seems that SW shear is acting like a wall. That flow on water vapor seems to be like a wall. Might be reason for the NNW jog. 

I think folks from Sarasota to Tampa may be in for a closer track than currently projected.  The mesoscale models certainly seem to think so. May not make much difference as all the nasty weather is focused at or to the east of the center. However, the other item to note is how much intensification. I know the shear is there but all models show a window of deepening before weakening. The 12z Euro even suggested briefly to hurricane level. That window may hit Sarasota to Tampa which could mean a nastier storm in that corridor than currently forecast. Just saying.

[Floydbuster]

I think Elsa landfalls further east. I'm gonna guess well south of the big bend.

[TradeWinds]

20 minutes ago, rogue said:

I think folks from Sarasota to Tampa may be in for a closer track than currently projected.  The mesoscale models certainly seem to think so. May not make much difference as all the nasty weather is focused at or to the east of the center. However, the other item to note is how much intensification. I know the shear is there but all models show a window of deepening before weakening. The 12z Euro even suggested briefly to hurricane level. That window may hit Sarasota to Tampa which could mean a nastier storm in that corridor than currently forecast. Just saying.

Agree but the Euro had it over water up past Cedar Key. Any track east would minimize time to strengthen. NHC did nudge their track slightly east. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  Sometimes there is a surprise. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[olafminesaw]

Is this the LLC?

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in slightly stronger than  18Z

[Double Action]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is this the LLC?

It’s the upside down U on the left of your X

[FLweather]

Elsa not looking too impressive atm. Dry air on the western side has limited convection.

Seems as if the LLC and MLC organizing some per radar and WV this morning.

Considering the close proximity to land and daytime heating may give her a boost later today.

[Prospero]

Looks like the LLC is here this morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

A lot if lightning near the center this morning. Elsa is clearly being hampered by the wind shear, and the center is partially exposed to the west of the convection. However, as it continues to pull away from cuba, and the shear vector aligns more with the forward motion, while traversing some hot water, I could see a small uptick in intensity. Likely would occur as the system moves north then north-northeast  

[SnowenOutThere]

This is going to be an actual post instead of my other posts that probably belong in banter. I was looking at the radar this morning and thought the latest convection was interesting if not a bit worrying. That also combined with the radar now being in usable meant we can get a better view of the convection which makes it easier to see the finer details. After looking at the radar I think it is possible that this storm could intensify rapidly at some point today. If we look at the photo on the right taken around 6am we can see that there is little convection in the blue circled area and even less in the light black area which is where the blue area rotates to. This is the area to my knowledge closest to the actual center due to how the bands curve around it. Not that impressive looking for an inner band. This is before the convection burst that occurs from 6 30 to 7am which you can see on the satellite. The image below shows the convection that was in the blue circled on the left photo into its new position which is also in a blue circle. The convection is now much more intense and starting to rap around the center due to the convection band being in a rounded shape. This shows to me that the storm might be trying to make an eyewall or just an convection core near the center. This combined with that convection core undergoing strengthening leads me to believe that there is a chance this storm rapidly intensifies later today or currently with that band. That combined with the band next to it being more filled in to the south makes me think this storm might be undergoing an organization process. By the time I finish writing this it is probably irrelevant but thanks for reading.  

[FamouslyHot]

A lot of convection firing up quickly this morning near the center. 

[Prospero]

My wife and I just rolled in our SunSetter canopy. We haven't done that since Hurricane Eta last November.

I'll take down bird feeders later today, but moving vulnerable potted plants to more secure areas now. Wind chines have to go down.

 

 

[Hotair]

Given how disorganized Elsa looks on satellite presently, i feel it’s now more likely she won’t have much opportunity to strengthen before passing by Tampa / st. Pete.  

Hopefully not much different to what Summerland Key is experiencing presently. 

[Hotair]

Hurricane hunters are reporting that they are delayed taking off on Elsa recon due to bad weather in Biloxi.  No ETA given