Double Action Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Prospero said: I will say, over the past few years, with Tampa Bay in and out of cones now and then, I do not remember consistently being in the middle of any cone for a few days solid. I know. I’m in Seminole and have watched these for 30 years and haven’t seen us dead aimed in the cone for this many days. Lucky this isn’t a cat3 or bigger. I would be freaking out. Even the Irma cone flip flopped but generally stayed east. Harvey freaked me out though that was the only one where the cone lasted about a day or two on us right to the end. I had the wood and screws ready but didn’t use them cause it kept nudging south on radar despite the cone not shifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Even with the weird trends with this storm, gotta give credit to the NHC for getting the forecast center line almost dead on five days ago, threading the needle through Haiti and Jamaica and going just south of that little Cuba peninsula. Also besides for the few hours when it got to a hurricane, they got the intensity forecast pretty well too. Pretty impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 8 PM advisory has pressure down to 1005 MB. Also W at 15 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Prospero said: I that an eye I see?? LOL I should of seen that retort from a mile away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: 8 PM advisory has pressure down to 1005 MB. Also W at 15 MPH “Down to 1005 mb” sounds like a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Even with the weird trends with this storm, gotta give credit to the NHC for getting the forecast center line almost dead on five days ago, threading the needle through Haiti and Jamaica and going just south of that little Cuba peninsula. Also besides for the few hours when it got to a hurricane, they got the intensity forecast pretty well too. Pretty impressive. Grade A+ forecast on this one, even with gigantic model disagreement for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 53 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I should of seen that retort from a mile away. Last year it was quite a theme!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: “Down to 1005 mb” sounds like a typo Pressure at 5 PM was 1009 MB and its down to 1005 MB at 8 PM so I am not understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Pressure at 5 PM was 1009 MB and its down to 1005 MB at 8 PM so I am not understanding. It is down, just such an abnormally high pressure for a 50 kt storm. Has been higher than you’d expect the entire life of the system even when it was a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It is down, just such an abnormally high pressure for a 50 kt storm. Has been higher than you’d expect the entire life of the system even when it was a hurricane. Ohhhhh I misinterpreted that as I thought you said I made a typo. Yeah right now seems actually like an actual tropical storm for the first time in about a day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX. Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Distracted from Elsa a little tonight sitting in my driveway with neighborhood fireworks (and gunshots) going off constantly. Kind of reminded me watching Irma blow up transformers across the horizon, just without the wind and rain. Happy 4th Of July! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Vigorous outer rainband pushing towards SE FL coast. Right now it's hitting Bimini. Remains to be seen if it will get all the way here, but I think chances are it will since this band has been steadily intensifying, and it has some very deep convection. There have been several times in my life where an approaching cyclone sends out a really aggressive furthermost outer band, and it can catch people by surprise with winds of 40-60 mph, downed trees, power outages, etc... I think this could end up being one of those cases. Aside from that, another smaller band taking shape over Florida Keys and extending into coastal Miami-Dade. So impacts are just beginning now for SE FL. Perfect timing, will clear out all this smoke from the fireworks as soon as we get a band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Vigorous outer rainband pushing towards SE FL coast. Right now it's hitting Bimini. Remains to be seen if it will get all the way here, but I think chances are it will since this band has been steadily intensifying, and it has some very deep convection. There have been several times in my life where an approaching cyclone sends out a really aggressive furthermost outer band, and it can catch people by surprise with winds of 40-60 mph, downed trees, power outages, etc... I think this could end up being one of those cases. Aside from that, another smaller band taking shape over Florida Keys and extending into coastal Miami-Dade. So impacts are just beginning now for SE FL. Perfect timing, will clear out all this smoke from the fireworks as soon as we get a band. I recall Gustav having a feature like this in New Orleans at the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 On loops, that looks like an outflow boundary SW of Elsa moving SW with storms developing and maintaining along and behind it. No idea what it means. I've seen arc clouds come out of systems w/ dry air issues on visible before, but those don't usually trigger convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Not exactly OT, did the FSU Super Ensemble, which even FSU people I knew via internet could not see, which used many of the major models and ensembles and somehow bias corrected them and averaged them and was apparently quite useful, disappear. Just thinking I have not seen the FSU Super Ensemble mentioned in a few years in NHC discos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 11:24ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 10:40:04ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.29N 80.64WB. Center Fix Location: 61 statute miles (99 km) to the SSW (192°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 19kts (From the SSW at 22mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (59.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix at 10:21:43ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 30kts (From the ESE at 34.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 10:31:26ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix at 10:44:36ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 195° at 42kts (From the SSW at 48.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 11:09:33ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,144m (10,315ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:09:33Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 What in the helllllll...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 13 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: The whole weakening bit was predicated on a disrupted or non-existent circulation. 20kts of shear is like a stimulating breeze for a well-developed TC. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Well, that aggressive outer band fell apart, and all we got was a sprinkle around sunrise. Now a very light easterly wind and sunny. That being said, we're getting tons of daytime heating now, and when the next convergence bands roll in it will probably be an explosive squall event. Might take till many hours from now for that to happen tho, since radar is pretty much empty between here and Cuba. I guess the real storminess will start here tonight once Elsa enters the Florida straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: What in the helllllll... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk What do those numbers mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 What do those numbers mean?That is the recon data, they found an unflagged (uncontaminated) 105kt surface gustSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Well, that aggressive outer band fell apart, and all we got was a sprinkle around sunrise. Now a very light easterly wind and sunny. That being said, we're getting tons of daytime heating now, and when the next convergence bands roll in it will probably be an explosive squall event. Might take till many hours from now for that to happen tho, since radar is pretty much empty between here and Cuba. I guess the real storminess will start here tonight once Elsa enters the Florida straits. But aren't you in space? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: But aren't you in space? You are in space too. Everyone is in space. Space is all around us, and no one isn't in space. Starting to get a nice breeze here in space, maybe gusts of 20 mph. The first real signs of Elsa's circulation. Clouds rotating cyclonically through the sky too. Radar shows a fresh outer band shooting through Florida Straits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said: That is the recon data, they found an unflagged (uncontaminated) 105kt surface gust Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk It’s unflagged but bad data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 It’s unflagged but bad data.I know man, but that should have been flaggedSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida. The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings for the Cuban province of Camaguey. The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Elsa has connected with the Jet Stream. This could help fuel intensification and expansion of the storm, and it will particularly enhance rain/wind coverage in the NE quadrant. Very exciting stuff! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Elsa has connected with the Jet Stream. This could help fuel intensification and expansion of the storm, and it will particularly enhance rain/wind coverage in the NE quadrant. Very exciting stuff! SNE is certainly happy about the new GFS coming in. Seems like Isasis all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 A slight nudge east on the 12z GFS run while the Canadian brings it onshore at Tampa. Will be interesting to see if the Euro nudges east a bit or not. Not a huge difference in track but 50 miles west/east with a storm skirting the FL coast makes for big impact differential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now