Floydbuster Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: It's just an impressive tower right now tho. I read local radars are not showing any wrapping. Yeah I don’t see any upshear convection but it might be reforming a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Excellent analysis. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Double Action said: Excellent analysis. Thanks Thanks. Elsa is looking more stacked tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 I just accidentally woke up and wanted to see the storm and wow what a transformation from earlier. From my untrained sleep deprived eyes it almost looks like it’s try to develop an eye on the last frames don’t know if I’m just paranoid or not. Still looks really good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Elsa has really slowed down just east of Jamaica. Now only moving at 12 knots, as per the 5am NHC advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 looks in even worse shape than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1011mb, how much more before she opens into a trough...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Shewww, that’s a disorganized system per recon. High pressure, and all significant wind located far away in eastern semicircle. Was not really expecting that, in fact I was wondering if their wind sensors were malfunctioning. Not sure exactly what is inhibiting Elsa this morning but it may open into a trough after landfall in Cubs if it can’t get it’s act together before then. That’s a storm on life support, despite what looked like a better sat presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Upper level outflow improving. If it can tap into that jet stream over Florida it could intensify rapidly, but no guarantee that will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Upper level outflow improving. If it can tap into that jet stream over Florida it could intensify rapidly, but no guarantee that will happen. Is the center South or north of Jamaica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jaguars said: 11 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Upper level outflow improving. If it can tap into that jet stream over Florida it could intensify rapidly, but no guarantee that will happen. Is the center South or north of Jamaica? Just off the northeastern coast of Jamaica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Action Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Weird that it has struggled. Plus that track was due west from where it was. Maybe it has kept relocating centers overnight. Has the shrimp look forming again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Center/LLC relocations are allowing Elsa to thread the needle, but at the same time, such reorganization can take time to respond with pressure falls and intensification. Despite the present more symmetrical convective envelope, banding and a healthy MCS, Elsa needs to chill with the break down and reformation of low-level vorticity maximums before it's going to experience a prolonged period of reintensification. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 A little old, but it seems everyone is / was a bit confused. From the NHC Elsa Discussion 16: 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ”The last pass from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided interesting and somewhat confusing data on Elsa.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 You can basically see where the center is on Guantanamo radar. Seems like Elsa will perfectly thread the needle between Jamaica and Cuba! Also radar structure is fairly nice. https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 There's no way the sea level pressure is 1011mb. I call BS on that and even if it was the case it will be short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Center/LLC relocations are allowing Elsa to thread the needle, but at the same time, such reorganization can take time to respond with pressure falls and intensification. Despite the present more symmetrical convective envelope, banding and a healthy MCS, Elsa needs to chill with the break down and reformation of low-level vorticity maximums before it's going to experience a prolonged period of reintensification. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 It does appear to have a nice burst of convection over the center, and maybe slightly less of the popcorn look. Let’s see if can maintain and we see corresponding pressure falls and contraction of the wind field. I’m still surprised to see a pressure above 1005 mb, meaning this thing has a lot of work to do and not much time to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 The impediments regarding fast forward speed and significant land interaction —hispaniola, and Cuba have been greatly reduced. And now Elsa is over the warmest SST’s in the Caribbean. This is still a very interesting forecast. Relative to most recent guidance, surprises to the upside in terms of intensity are far more likely than the opposite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 9 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Took this last night right after mid night and for the last couple frames it really looked like it was trying to develop an eye or something and with that IR presentation I thought it might become a rather intense system, turns out I took that image at the height of its nighttime convection. Still confusing on just how rapidly it went from looking like a strong hurricane might happen to a weak end tropical storm, same thing happened yesterday its like it Yo-yos each day and night. I really thought we might end up with a major hurricane by morning from that depiction. Still a bit confused on why this keeps falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 15 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 4th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 18.8N 77.0WLocation: 56 statute miles (89 km) to the NNW (347°) from Kingston, Jamaica.Marsden Square: 044 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1012mb (29.89 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 65° (from the ENE) 11 knots (13 mph) 1000mb 107m (351 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 23.6°C (74°F) 60° (from the ENE) 12 knots (14 mph) 925mb 789m (2,589 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 18.6°C (65°F) 65° (from the ENE) 6 knots (7 mph) 850mb 1,519m (4,984 ft) 17.0°C (62.6°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph) 700mb 3,161m (10,371 ft) 9.0°C (48.2°F) 9.0°C (48°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 14:20Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 18.80N 76.99W- Time: 14:20:47ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 18.80N 76.99W- Time: 14:25:32ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 704mb to 1011mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Guantanano Bay: 45 mph wind, 55 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The impediments regarding fast forward speed and significant land interaction —hispaniola, and Cuba have been greatly reduced. And now Elsa is over the warmest SST’s in the Caribbean. This is still a very interesting forecast. Relative to most recent guidance surprises to the upside in terms of intensity are far more likely than the opposite... I think New England needs to watch this for the rainfall potential adding to already soggy ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 Still has a long way to go but slowly getting it together…for now at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I think New England needs to watch this for the rainfall potential adding to already soggy ground I’d say eastern SNE is very much in the game. I’m not seeing a deep enough trough to make it interesting for points further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 The development of an inflow channel on the south side of the system is a good sign of continued organization. Still a long way to go but this is the look of another intensifying phase 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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