Newman Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Cousin is heading to Sarasota for vacation Sunday-Sunday this coming week. Told her probably not the best idea but track/forecast changes are always possible. The entire state of Florida, and all SE states, should be preparing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Those are some cold cloud tops near the center. Also, lots of transverse banding from what I assume to be the shear the storm is affected by. Does anyone have some info on what causes this/what this means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Current radar from Barbados: https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro/RadarPro5_displayer.php?subDir=Dir_400KM&PlanetOfTheApes=212 Last frame appears that a formidable eye is trying to form and convection is attempting to wrap fully around the COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Recon is having some issues I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 If it continues to move at the speed it is moving, it will be a quick hitter for any location . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Interesting...basically 10mb higher than the estimate, and higher than the observed pressure in Barbados. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:10ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 2nd day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mbCoordinates: 13.0N 60.3WLocation: 48 statute miles (77 km) to the W (261°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.Marsden Square: 043 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph) 1000mb 37m (121 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 723m (2,372 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 20.2°C (68°F) 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph) 850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.4°C (63°F) 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 700mb 3,106m (10,190 ft) 11.8°C (53.2°F) 7.6°C (46°F) 45° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 12:56Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Lowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 12.99N 60.32W- Time: 13:01:14ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1003mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW)- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Here's the first vortex message (VDM). I really want to see what happens when they sample the northern part of the core, which on radar looks to be a partial eyewall. So critical to have recon to resolve stuff like this. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:15ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:56:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 12.98N 60.31WB. Center Fix Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the W (259°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,112m (10,210ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 3kts (From the WSW at 3mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (58.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix at 12:44:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 62kts (From the ESE at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 12:23:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix at 13:00:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 33° at 18kts (From the NNE at 20.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 12:58:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 12:23:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 NHC cone has shifted east since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 They might have jumped the gun on that center? Latest obs show another area with lower pressure, unless it really is moving that fast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Yeah, 998mb extrapolated on that latest ob lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Ah, recon missed. Can't blame em, Elsa is booking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 New center dropsonde says it's still only ~1003 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: New center dropsonde says it's still only ~1003 mb. Yeah, very interesting. Part of it might be the trades/motion screwing with things, but it's quite odd to see given the IR/radar/microwave/ground obs. I'll wait for recon to finish before making any judgments though. This is why we send the planes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, very interesting. Part of it might be the trades/motion screwing with things, but it's quite odd to see given the IR/radar/microwave/ground obs. I'll wait for recon to finish before making any judgments though. This is why we send the planes in. Might be hard to get accurate data in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Yeah, 998mb extrapolated on that latest ob lolStill freaking high for a caneAlso, highest pressure in a hurricane is 1005mb (TWO, 1946) with 80mph windsSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Classic shrimp look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Just now, BYG Jacob said: Might be hard to get accurate data in this case Could be. Not questioning the skill or experience of the recon team, but maybe rapid motion might be making it more difficult to pin down things? Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Still freaking high for a cane Also, highest pressure in a hurricane is 1005mb (TWO, 1946) with 80mph winds Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Yeah, definitely high. Really hope they get a north-->south pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The first recon mission is finished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Could be. Not questioning the skill or experience of the recon team, but maybe rapid motion might be making it more difficult to pin down things? Yeah, definitely high. Really hope they get a north-->south pass. Exactly my thoughts. Keeping up with Elsa's small core is going to be immensely difficult until the storm slows down. It is clear that given the extreme ridging that pressure in Elsa will be abnormally high, and Elsa is absolutely producing hurricane-force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Still deep in the cone here in SouthEast Florida. This is definitely a hard approach angle for anything big to happen here though. Usually the Greater Antilles will suck a storm like this right into the mountains. Could easily see a decent tropical storm impact though, with lots of juicy rain bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 She trying hard to close off that coreSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Direct hit on St. Vincent. Same island that had a massive Volcanic eruption this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The storm has impressive upper level outflow in basically all quadrants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized, and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed. The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr. After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter portion of the track forecast remains low confidence. The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the initial intensity. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Bigger right curve, but if Elsa strengthens, that will slide west...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said: Still deep in the cone here in SouthEast Florida. This is definitely a hard approach angle for anything big to happen here though. Usually the Greater Antilles will suck a storm like this right into the mountains. Could easily see a decent tropical storm impact though, with lots of juicy rain bands. Sending advance Thoughts & Prayers as you prepare to contend with massive local impacts from occasional breeziness and scattered showers. Looking forward to the play by play. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The past 2 seasons have been an epic fail for the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The 12z GFS is, ironically, much weaker through the Caribbean than previous runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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