Prospero Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Tezeta said: Yeah I guess Irma counts…but tbh I consider it a fake 4 in the keys and a fake 3 at Naples. It isn’t quite red meat enough but it’s hard to get that on the western coast. Fake? Were you here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Yeah I guess Irma counts…but tbh I consider it a fake 4 in the keys and a fake 3 at Naples. It isn’t quite red meat enough but it’s hard to get that on the western coast. Irma wasn't fake. That's for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight. LLC and mid and upper levels stacking. Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, FLweather said: Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight. LLC and mid and upper levels stacking. Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day. Yeah I'm looking forward to reading the 11pm update soon. Guessing they will up the current strength to 50-55 mph with the 45 knot windbarbs on the recent ascat and probably up the forecast to hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Stay on topic. Some of you need to read more and post less. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, FLweather said: Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight. LLC and mid and upper levels stacking. Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day. It looks quite good tonight on IR. It needs to keep the deep convection going for like 12-24 hours though to really allow for an inner core to develop. We see plenty of systems look good overnight just to have the convective trend collapse after losing the diurnal assist. Heck of a start tonight though with those hot towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Irma made landfall near Naples as a cat 3... If anyone is in for a rude awakening it's the east coast of Florida. Hasn't had a hurricane landfall since Katrina. Cape Verde hurricanes are their wheelhouse. This is an early season ITCZ slopgyre those tend to ride low GOM-bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Excellent discussion tonight. Still a ton of uncertainty with this. Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold -75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of 44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data, the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle. Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period remains low confidence. The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt. However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I'm surprised the NHC was still as conservative. I'm typically conservative with intensity as well because of so many storms fizzling in the past, but Elsa is impressing me tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 00z GFS pretty far west and is into the big bend Wednesday night as a strong hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The good 'ol Pensalina (Pensacola-Carolina) track... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Prospero said: We've been spared direct hits, but I was here for Charlie, Francis, and Jeane, which all took down trees and power, and countless damaging storms since then. Irma was the worst. But in our circle of friends and family, homes and businesses have been destroyed, who knows how much financial loss we have all endured -- almost every year on some level. Last year was an oddity they all missed us. We've been awoken rudely so many times, but yes no direct hits in the Tampa Bay area for a long time. I was a kid with Agnes, the highest storm surge I have ever seen. Wiped out a lot of businesses on the beaches. 50 miles inland for a Cat 2 13 years ago, almost a week no power, roof damage in the neighborhood. HRD estimate 80 mph top sustained. Category 2. Wiped out most of the houses in an area of beach houses called Crystal Beach, destroyed my wife's grandparents beach place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Strength based GEFS bifurcation in NHC disco continues on 0Z, a western outlier headed to Northern Mexico. No member sub 1008 mb into the Atlantic, most into Florida Panhandle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 To amplify the point ^ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 link to a pretty useful Caribbean composite radar loop https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Composite_Resp.php# 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 hours ago, hlcater said: I’d lean bearish on near term intensity. Having such a fast forward motion and attendant strong fetch on the northern side is going to favor a very lopsided system even if shear and dry air are negligible. I suspect that the system will appear reminiscent of some of those later season gulf storms from recent years that suffer from the same issue, just rotated 90 degrees. Think the best shot for respectable intensification is after FH48 when this is in the eastern Caribbean and slowing down. Lol. We are aging well this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs. Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater. GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall. HMON targeting SW FL. Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS. Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Couple quick points: 1. Looking at the radar loop and IR, it seems pretty clear that Elsa’s convective burst overnight did a lot to help develop an inner core. Critically, it’s not complete, which means any organizational progress we’re seeing now is fragile, so we need to see what happens today. That said, what we see so far IMO increases the odds of survival in the eastern Caribbean. 2. The guidance, despite having a large spread, hasn’t really shifted a lot. Of course, there are wobbles here and there but the general evolution hasn’t fundamentally changed. Folks in Florida and the SE coast shouldn’t be waiting for the guidance to have consensus to start preparing. 3. Recon has taken off and is en route. A lot of flights are planned and both low level recon and the high altitude environmental sampling will be huge for intensity and track forecasting. I wouldn’t get caught up in the guidance really until it has had time to initialize on actual observational data. The presentation overall this morning is significantly better than it was 12 hours ago. The only thing slowing this down right now, is the practically supersonic speed lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 hours ago, FLweather said: Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs. Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater. GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall. HMON targeting SW FL. Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS. Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state. In Tampa this week we’ve been dealing with BAU street flooding from PM storms, and then the stench of dead fish and airborne irritants from red tide pushed in by onshore flow. Didn’t have a early July TS on the bingo card, still a wide spread for tracks so mildly interested but not concerned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Couple new microwave images to add. Definitely more organized but still more work to do. Recon will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Elsa has become the first hurricane of the 2021 season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/ZelinskyHello 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Core hasn’t fully closed off, but clearly Elsa is not suffering terribly from the extreme forward motion. The environment later today and tonight might be even more favorable as all the guidance had some intensification/organization after the Antilles. It should be noted that SHIPS did highlight a higher than normal probability of rapid intensification and the GFS/HWRF’s bullish forecasts from 24-48 hours ago look to be much closer to reality than the other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’ll be right in future forecast points but it’s worth noting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Regardless of what happens here on out, another major bust for Euro's cyclogenesis forecasting. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Recon is descending into the hurricane now. Radar kind of shows it but the key thing here is how well-formed the inner core is, and secondarily IMO, how strong it actually is IMO. The more organized...the higher intensity ceiling...the higher intensity ceiling, the greater potential for a further west track... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Both are way out but interesting track divergence between 6z HMON and HWRF HMON up the middle of the peninsula while HWRF rides the coast along Pinellas Countty as a strong TS or Cat 1. Not worst case trajectory but a high impact and damaging event for TB region with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 First sounding away from the center is fairly impressive. Recon en route to center which looks increasingly well-defined on radar. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:38ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300Storm Name: ElsaStorm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 2nd day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mbCoordinates: 14.0N 58.7WLocation: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the NE (45°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1014mb (29.95 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 105° (from the ESE) 25 knots (29 mph) 1000mb 125m (410 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 22.9°C (73°F) 110° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph) 925mb 809m (2,654 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 120° (from the ESE) 46 knots (53 mph) 850mb 1,538m (5,046 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 125° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,171m (10,404 ft) 7.8°C (46.0°F) 6.9°C (44°F) 125° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 12:21Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Lowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 14.03N 58.79W- Time: 12:26:41ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 56 knots (64 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 693mb to 1013mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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