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Wednesday, June 30, 2021 Severe Potential


weatherwiz
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41 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

0.62" for the month. i'll take the under on getting anything significant later.

watching this latest cell miss me by no more than 2 miles south. It's become a self fulfilling prophecy at this point. it may never rain again here. 

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 DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
   intensity across parts of central PA into central/eastern NY
   along/east of a weak surface trough and zone of differential
   heating. Some of these storms have a history of producing both
   marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts across central NY.
   Recent surface observations and area VWPs show low-level winds are
   generally veered to west-southwesterly, which is limiting low-level
   convergence. Still, current expectations are for the ongoing
   convection to gradually spread eastward across parts of northeastern
   PA into far northern NJ, southern NY, and CT/RI/MA through the
   remainder of the afternoon. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and
   1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should be sufficient for an organized
   severe threat. The primary risk should be scattered severe/damaging
   wind gusts as storms will probably tend to form into small bowing
   clusters with eastward extent. But, occasional marginally severe
   hail may also occur with any convection that can remain
   semi-discrete. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
   needed.
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Sprinkles outside, rumbling good-looking cell (had 60 dbz+ over Dixfield, still many 50-55 pixels) about to pass about 5 miles to my south.  Lesser cell looks to pass to my north.  Echoes coming in our direction might be 0.05".  Maybe

MEZ012-013-020-021-301930-
Southern Oxford-Androscoggin-Southern Franklin-Kennebec-
301 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KENNEBEC...NORTH
CENTRAL ANDROSCOGGIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 300 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wilton, or 10
miles southwest of Farmington, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Farmington, Jay, Livermore Falls, Dixfield, Canton, Wilton,
Livermore, Chesterville, Fayette, New Sharon, Town Of Washington,
Vienna and Mount Vernon.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
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storm approaching Meredith NH. The skies dark to the west and light raining falling here. It has been brutally hot/humid and horse flies on the backroads up here have been brutal during my bike rides this week.

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