PowderBeard Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder what the 12z actual soundings look like. Regional hi res vis loop sat coverage is impressively barren SE of a baroclinic cloud swipe over far NW/St L Seaway - there's not even early fractal CU there despite 88 to 92 F by 10:30 am. DPs may be 2 to 3 off yesterday at this time, but still in the upper 60s, but the LC level should have more fractals. also, I wonder if there is CIN/'cap' in in the region. Noted, 588 dam isohypses still runs roughtly PIT-PWM so, we may need some recession/ .. falls to commence - that could be interesting as a "release" type of initiation. Pretty cool, you see a CU, go get a soda, and by the time you get back it's a cotton ball with overshooting hot tower expanding - Great post. I ended up just going down a "Loaded Gun Theory" rabbit hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 looks like things are firing in NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Areas affected...Portions of far northern PA into much of NY...far western MA...VT...NH...and southern/central ME Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301504Z - 301700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for scattered severe/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginally severe hail will increase late this morning into the afternoon. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...40-50 kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with an upper trough centered over Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes will remain over much of the Northeast today. With the lack of an appreciable surface front, low-level convergence should remain fairly weak across this region. Still, a zone of differential heating between morning clouds/precipitation and partly to mostly clear conditions to the south, as well as some convergence off of Lakes Erie/Ontario, will probably serve as foci for storm development. As surface temperatures generally warm into the upper 80s and low 90s over the next couple of hours, convective temperatures will likely be reached as 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE develops. Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for a mix of small clusters/multicells and supercells as storms form and then move eastward across NY and New England. Steep low-level lapse rates and strengthening flow with height through low/mid levels suggest that scattered damaging wind gusts will likely be the main severe threat. With some supercell potential given the mostly long/straight hodographs expected, isolated marginally severe hail may also occur. But, modest mid-level lapse rates will probably limit a greater hail threat. Current expectations are for robust storm development to occur by 16-17Z (Noon - 1 PM EDT), and multiple Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be issued to address this increasing severe threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43007067 42747134 42777303 42237338 42017395 41787480 42017693 42047831 42387844 42947751 43557587 44047524 44457389 44817215 45157102 45586995 45626747 45226712 44776688 44056854 43766954 43457022 43007067 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1045 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall forecast for today remains on track with the potential for strong to severe storms persisting. Despite SPC pushing the slight and enhanced risk a little bit northward, looking at current satellite trends still feel the best potential for severe will be from southern Essex County NY northeast through VT Washington, Caledonia, and southern Essex Counties southward, and especially across Rutland/Windsor Counties where the greatest surface heating and instability will be found. Current mesoscale analysis shows what the previous forecaster mentioned in regard to deep layer shear with the strongest values >40kts at 0-6km north of the surface boundary draped along and just south of the international border, and 30-40kts southward. While not lining up as much as we`d like to see a more widespread convective threat, it still should be enough to support some organization of cells this afternoon with the primary threat continuing to be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Sun breaking out now so off to the races 84/72°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Looks like may be a dud here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Severe t-storm watch issued for western NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like may be a dud here its SNE though, so the most probable outcome is always a dud. Nevertheless, I can't remember the last time I was in an enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Would be nice to get some night time storms unless that ends up weakening them too quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sun breaking out now so off to the races 84/72°F 86/71 Pretty soupy. Expecting the middle portion of a 7/10 later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 86/71 Pretty soupy. Expecting the middle portion of a 7/10 later. I'm expecting the same, It usually ends up that way here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maine New Hampshire Extreme northeastern New York Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon across northern New England, in an environment supporting both supercells and clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Glens Falls NY to 40 miles east of Bar Harbor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 326... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 95/71 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: Our Mets highlighted that northern MA corridor NY Mets? in the house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 We used to pray for a corridor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 95.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 I will take any liquid falling out of clouds. not picky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I will take any liquid falling out of clouds. not picky here. you can stand under my porch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 MLCAPE values finally above 1500 for all of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Getting thunder now here at the mountain and a very humid -RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Think we'll need all the instability we can amass here in SNE during peak heating since best forcing seems to be NNE until the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 well I think it's safe to say dewpoints aren't mixing out and in fact looks like we may have some pooling occurring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Think we'll need all the instability we can amass here in SNE during peak heating since best forcing seems to be NNE until the evening. Yeah best forcing north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Do you guys think we’re mainly out of luck here in ct? I’m thinking about driving up into southern mass tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: well I think it's safe to say dewpoints aren't mixing out and in fact looks like we may have some pooling occurring dewpoint pooling? interesting, didnt know that was a thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 The best shot probably say south of the CT/MA border is to get a solid line organizing dropping through MA and then interacting with any leftover boundaries from yesterday. The HRRR looks like crap but it's been quite inconsistent and given how it's handling the atmosphere I think we toss the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 0.62" for the month. i'll take the under on getting anything significant later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Getting thunder now here at the mountain and a very humid -RN. That had a nice hook as it came off the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Presently high res sat loop indicates east to ene leaning TCU turrets streeting along an axis west of ALB and the NW region of the Capital District and lower Mohawk Trail... This region - I suspect - is probably the swap out explosion axis, when the early cells in the broken line that is W-N of that region outflows/ .. and or this lead region uncaps and steals the inflow away and sort of takes over. But the original will still probably aggregate into clusters as they hit the terrain of NW-W VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 90/70°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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