weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Wednesday features yet another day of high heat and humidity for many, however, this time that energy is liable to be utilized as a weak surface trough/associated surface low pressure track from north-central NY through north-central New England. The combination of temperatures ranging from upper 80's to mid 90's and dewpoints pushing lower 70's will contribute to a moderate unstable airmass with MLCAPE values likely exceeding 1500-2000 J/KG despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Forecast models also indicate a belt of 50+ knots at 500mb traversing portions of the region with 25-30+ knots of low-level shear. Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms should begin to rapidly fire by mid-to-late afternoon with activity quickly converging into multiple line segments. Wind shear is more than sufficient for activity to quickly organize into multiple lines. Combination of strong wind shear, moderate instability, and very steep low-level lapse rates will bring about the potential for damaging wind gusts, including a swath of widespread damaging wind gusts. Large CAPE, especially in the hail growth zone, will also bring about the potential for large hail, especially early on in storm mode. This will also contribute to vivid/frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A tornado or two is also possible...especially along any llvl convergence zones. PWATS > 1.50'' suggest the potential for poor drainage flash flooding. Thursday also has potential but tomorrow will play a factor into that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Wednesday features yet another day of high heat and humidity for many, however, this time that energy is liable to be utilized as a weak surface trough/associated surface low pressure track from north-central NY through north-central New England. The combination of temperatures ranging from upper 80's to mid 90's and dewpoints pushing lower 70's will contribute to a moderate unstable airmass with MLCAPE values likely exceeding 1500-2000 J/KG despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Forecast models also indicate a belt of 50+ knots at 500mb traversing portions of the region with 25-30+ knots of low-level shear. Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms should begin to rapidly fire by mid-to-late afternoon with activity quickly converging into multiple line segments. Wind shear is more than sufficient for activity to quickly organize into multiple lines. Combination of strong wind shear, moderate instability, and very steep low-level lapse rates will bring about the potential for damaging wind gusts, including a swath of widespread damaging wind gusts. Large CAPE, especially in the hail growth zone, will also bring about the potential for large hail, especially early on in storm mode. This will also contribute to vivid/frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A tornado or two is also possible...especially along any llvl convergence zones. PWATS > 1.50'' suggest the potential for poor drainage flash flooding. Thursday also has potential but tomorrow will play a factor into that. meh, I'm inclined to think we get nadaSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: meh, I'm inclined to think we get nada Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk We as in your backyard or we as the region as a whole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 We as in your backyard or we as the region as a whole Just the lavarock section. Forcefield in placeSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Since this gentleman was already quoted once today up thread: Anthony Siciliano @AMSweather · 12m New run of The NAM high res, Sim Radar for tomorrow afternoon. Tough for models or humans to pinpoint storms , confidence is there for an active, potentially dangerous day for some communities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 18z NAM a little more generous with the shear down into Mass, CAPE gone wild. Also looking like more of a west wind which could be an interesting ingredient. I'm thinking NE CT, southern Worcester County, northern RI, into Bristol County for the best/worst of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Good theta e ridge near the pike. S coast seabreeze probably helps that area near pike. Could be a decent day near BOS for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Good theta e ridge near the pike. S coast seabreeze probably helps that area near pike. Could be a decent day near BOS for once. 30 miles north/ south of 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: Since this gentleman was already quoted once today up thread: Anthony Siciliano @AMSweather · 12m New run of The NAM high res, Sim Radar for tomorrow afternoon. Tough for models or humans to pinpoint storms , confidence is there for an active, potentially dangerous day for some communities. Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Good theta e ridge near the pike. S coast seabreeze probably helps that area near pike. Could be a decent day near BOS for once. I actually think there is potential for a tornado around BOS. P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: 18z NAM a little more generous with the shear down into Mass, CAPE gone wild. Also looking like more of a west wind which could be an interesting ingredient. I'm thinking NE CT, southern Worcester County, northern RI, into Bristol County for the best/worst of it. Ya I am NOT liking this radar. Waiting for a Tornado Warning to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I actually think there is potential for a tornado around BOS. P Derecho look tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: Ya I am NOT liking this radar. Waiting for a Tornado Warning to come out. I was actually referencing tomorrow in that post lol Looks like something trying to brew between Wallum Lake and 146 on velocity. Funny, a FB memory from 10 years ago popped up today. We were night fishing on Wallum and got chased off around 2am by a memorable light storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Derecho look tomorrow No derecho but may see a concentrated area of numerous damage reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Pretty stormy around here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 I saw that ORH cell from PVD airport massive mushroom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Had a decent storm clip here around 6. Blew up along seabreeze front to the south and made for a great backlit CB as it crosses Cape Cod bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: No derecho but may see a concentrated area of numerous damage reports More macro burst look than TOR to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 What's the largest city to get creamed by a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: More macro burst look than TOR to be sure Yes but there may be some local enhanced tornado potential in a few areas tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 Just now, DavisStraight said: What's the largest city to get creamed by a tornado? Dallas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I saw that ORH cell from PVD airport massive mushroom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Dallas? Probably a good guess, I was thinking maybe somewhere in Kansas or Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Just the lavarock section. Forcefield in place Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Seems like the Central NH east into at least Southern Maine gets shafted much of the time. I'm fully expecting the storms to fire just south of me and then hit S NH and Mass hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Should be stormy for Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Probably a good guess, I was thinking maybe somewhere in Kansas or Missouri Depends what your definition of creamed and large city is. Dallas, suburbs of Chicago (just a few weeks ago) and Dayton, OH have been hit more recently. But I would put Joplin, Tuscaloosa, and Moore ahead of all those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Holy shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Depends what your definition of creamed and large city is. Dallas, suburbs of Chicago (just a few weeks ago) and Dayton, OH have been hit more recently. But I would put Joplin, Tuscaloosa, and Moore ahead of all those. I was thinking of a congested city with high rises and office buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Holy shit Crushed, wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Crushed, wind? Fakenado? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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