wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 Cannot seem to post my words and that of NWS products... What is happening? Potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, especially late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri? Looks to me like Danny vort gets involved Thu-early Fri per tracking remains on RAL and op cycles. Iso FF possible Thu-Fri per WPC D3 excessive. Remembering all the cycles prior to last Saturday of 4-7" by July 5, we shall see. Not thinking of adding July 3-4-5 since opportunity for the bulk of the RW+ slipping just south of us - but could be close for the southern part of the forum. SPC D2 SVR northern part of Forum (I80) north, D3 Marginal throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 You're talking about Wednesday, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, gravitylover said: You're talking about Wednesday, right? Wed-Thursday primary days, very low prob big storm late today NYS-NJ border? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 What somehow is not allowing a post direct from WPC. Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 01 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 02 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... Troughing will dig southward-southeastward out of Ontario into the Ohio Valley, allowing the long-standing boundary to move southward and eastward as it gets reinforced from the northern height falls. Right rear quadrant of the jet (~70-100kts) will dip into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday promoting larger-scale upper divergence above the surface cold front. Axis of precipitable water values 1.50-2.00" (about +2 sigma) will precede the front, coupled with CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg generally south of 40N. 00Z guidance showed differences in timing and how far east (I-95 to I-87 corridor) and southeast (western VA/NC) heavier rainfall may get (or in one or two waves), though the ECMWF ensemble mean has been rather steady the past few runs while the GEFS mean has wavered on favoring the DelMarVa or not. Best QPF signal aligning with heavier QPF was over the central Appalachians which may be overnight Thu into early Fri. Multi-ensemble probabilities (GEFS/ECENS/CMCE) of at least 1"/24hrs was about 50% in the Slight Risk area, and about 15% for 2"/24hrs. Extended the Marginal area westward back to the Southern Plains and SE CO where PW values will remain high (1.50-2.00") just to the south of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 1.5" covers entire subforum next 5 fays, most of it the next 3. 2"+ across se 2/3rd NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 Anyone having problems posting words with their graphics? Unsure what I'm doing wrong. Has something changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Anyone having problems posting words with their graphics? Unsure what I'm doing wrong. Has something changed? Not that I know of. It might be a glitch. It's not letting you type after you add an image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Tomorrow looks interesting. Should be an active one for all but CT/MA look like the bullseye and is marked well on today’s D2 outlooks. Some shifts probable but that area looks to be in for quite a show tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Not that I know of. It might be a glitch. It's not letting you type after you add an image? Not easy to post w an image for me. Have to do some redo's. Warnings extreme ne PA and ne CT but no svr our forum. Spotty heavy showers extreme nw NJ with up to ~3/4" seen in the data between 2-445P. Saw pea size hail in an mPing report sw of Port Jervis. Wantage heat today of 92.5 at 740'MSL is hoter than anytime last summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Nam looks good for isolated storms tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Good Wednesday morning everyone, No significant changes to the WPC rainfall/severe weather threats as posted yesterday. We shall see what happens. I'll tend to be around today-this evening to comment, not so Thurs-Fri DAYS. There was 1 minor damage in the Bristol CT area yesterday (our official forum coverage area). I'll post the CoCoRAHS rainfall for the past 24 hours, around 10A with brief heavy showers nw NJ yesterday afternoon, and then last night across interior se NYS into sw CT after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Slight northern expansion of the enhanced risk into NNE today, the rest of us are still in slight risk for today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Have added the 833AM SPC outlook as mentioned by Crossbow above. My gut is telling me a big day is ahead for southern NYS/CT breaking down along I80 this evening. Time frame 3P-9P, with NYC last around 7-9P. Big CAPE to our north is my flag, but the HI down here and yesterdays lead severe which I think everyone will admit was further south than predicted are my concerns for bigger this far south. Slightly stronger wind fields than yesterday as well. Also, fwiw, se NYS and ne PA picked up some 1" clusters of storms yesterday as we'll soon see via CoCoRAHS and already in the mesonet data (1.3" max so far). This post worked as normal-thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 i wonder about ll moisture being mixed out later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 I've a question to tropics group... no answer as of yet but as I'm seeing it.... remains of Danny vort lowest 300 MB (700, 850, 925) is somewhere in W TN/w KY this morning, ready to be absorbed ahead of the approaching front. Wondering if it's enhanced wind convergence is driving the band of heavy showers along I70 of southern IND into w central OH. Could be a forgotten player in heavy rains NJ-Delmarva tomorrow? Doesn't seem to have much high dew point pooling but the wind field does look like it might be a contribution well in advance of the front. Early morning qpf out there nearly 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 So, impacting post event analysis... a couple of demo's this morning and why i think there is room for improvement, adding WXUnderground data for some sort of filtered ingest into radar and sensor evaluations. Pea sized hail occurred in Pike County as I recall so some of the radar data there may be a little high. Ground truth... still primary and the multiplatform mix needs further improvement. Examples follow for Pike County PA and the Indianapolis metro area this morning. Pike County PA: I saw several reports of 1/2" qpf yesterday in Pike County PA, but CoCoRahs has no reported OBS. Indianapolis: Radar eval looks a little low this morning per the reported CoCORAHS data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Might be an interesting next 6 hours (gthru 8p?) as in my mind, the apparent remnants of Danny circulation act upon a narrow band of downstream convection vcnty PIT- possibly Scranton. FFW's upstream. Hilly terrain out there. Otherwise, please follow SPC expanding area of Watches and NWS warnings-LSR verifications. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Doesn't mean lots of BIG storms but does indicate some have weather ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Watch northern PTN of NYC subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Looks like a decent cell in N Nassau currently headed east. Nice outflow boundary just came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Warning issued The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey... Central Union County in northeastern New Jersey... Southeastern Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Queens County in southeastern New York... Richmond County in southeastern New York... Kings County in southeastern New York... New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York... Southwestern Nassau County in southeastern New York... * Until 1030 PM EDT. * At 938 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from SoHo to near Sayreville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Pretty good light show here. Flashes every 5-15 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 loudest thunder i heard so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 nice lightning from that line, not a ton of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 temp down to 76 lowest it has been since monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 From a lightning perspective that was pretty impressive. There was a period there where the flashes were happening less than 5 seconds apart for maybe about 5 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 6 hours ago, Torch said: Storms exploding western Nassau it rained and perhaps hailed for like 20 minutes and then it turned off like a light switch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Meh. See this is why I love extreme heat in the summer, it's a lot more exciting than these meh storms we tend to get. The storms can come in September, they are much more robust then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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