July 2021

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember 2002 as very hot and very dry, my grass was yellow that year lol

Hard to decipher the smoke from the smog.  Yesterday was supposedly a very bad Ozone day.

[SACRUS]

1.49 in the bucket and some strong winds last night, storm(s) didnt seem to want to end.  Back to the furnace/saune today with more mid / upper 90s and later evening storms.  Tomorrow its all about timing with clouds/storms and arrival of Elsie later overnight Thu and into Friday morning.  Otherwise steamy and hot Thursday (7/8) as well and more 90s possible.  Friday (7/9) looks remnants will drop 1 - 2 inches of rain by the afternoon as the storm pulls out.  Saturday hung up front could see some lingering clouds and shower before turning noticeably warmer by Sunday (7/11) and into Monday (7.12).

The western Atlantic ride is building back Tuesday (7/13) and beyond through the work week with more heat (90s) and humidity.

Beyond there and towards / after mid month wester ridge and the heat machine looks to send high heat east into the Plains and then east, we'll need to see if the W Atl Ridge can connect later in July.

 

other wise warm to hot / humid and likely routine storms

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow thats strange, I wonder what kept EWR cooler back then?  Did the same thing happen in the epic late August- early September super heat wave?

Central Park OBS since 1991 being much cooler than Newark is an illusion created by the trees growing over ASOS. When the sensors were free of obstructions like all  official weather sites, NYC would be equal to or warmer than Newark on some days. The ASOS back in the 30s to 70s was in a more open area like the softball fields are today. That’s the only reason why the warmest week in Central Park can’t get warmer than 1977. Notice how our other stations have had their warmest week in more recent times. 

NYC ASOS beneath a dense canopy marked KNYC 

That area was more open before the tree growth of the last 40 to 50 years like nearby softball fields.

 

Warmest weeks around our area

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	91.2	1993-07-13	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	87.4	1993-07-13	0
	87.4	1977-07-21	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	88.3	2006-08-03	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	83.4	2013-07-20	0

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	86.4	2013-07-21	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	84.3	2013-07-20	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	84.8	2013-07-20	0

[doncat]

92/73/102

[CIK62]

Hotter Than a Fireman's Helmet and meaner than a Battalion Chief's Battle Axe Wife??????????????????????      It's the GFS folks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[forkyfork]

[Santa Claus]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

[Rtd208]

Current temp 94/DP 70/RH 47%

[forkyfork]

hardly any cold anomalies for us on the entire gfes run 

[nycwinter]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hardly any cold anomalies for us on the entire gfes run 

cooler then normal in texas...

[LoboLeader1]

92 here, RH 48%, DP 66.9

 

 

[Rjay]

30 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

cooler then normal in texas...

[STORMANLI]

2.32" through July 6th exceeds all of June's 2.21"

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

2.32" through July 6th exceeds all of June's 2.21"

What was your high today? I am sitting at 91, spiked to 94 earlier

[nycwinter]

p

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose mainly into the upper 80s and lower 90s today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 7):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 12 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 17 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 13 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 6 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 14 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 13 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 11 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 10 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 18 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 14 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 14 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 11 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 11 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

In the South, Elsa brought daily record rainfall to parts of the region. As of 8 pm EDT, Jacksonville picked up 2.66" rain (old record: 2.07", 1963). In a portion of eastern Texas, even heavier rain was reported. Rockport Aransas County Airport received an all-time daily record 9.63" rainfall.

Meanwhile, Banak, Norway (70.1°N) experienced its second 90° day in three days.

Tomorrow and Friday could be unsettled as a frontal boundary sits near the region and Elsa through the region. Elsa could bring a general 1"-3" rainfall across the region.

Out West, another above to much above normal regime is now developing. The height of this latest bout of heat could occur during the weekend into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 125°-130°. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. The record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +11.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.861 today. That is the most strongly positive AO reading in July since July 26, 2002 when the AO was +2.042.

On July 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.530 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (0.2° above normal).

 

[uncle W]

most 90 degree days in July at NYC...

20 in 1993
18 in 1999
17 in 1944
16 in 1966
16 in 2010
14 in 1952
14 in 1955
14 in 1983
14 in 2011

[weathermedic]

Absolutely stifling outside. 83/77

[doncat]

95/69 temp split today.

[CIK62]

AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING.        TOO BAD WE STARTED THE MONTH WITH A 27 DEGREE DEFICIT AFTER JUST 5 DAYS.          THIS LOOKS LIKE RECORD MATERIAL.       The s.d. in July is about 1.3 degrees, and 4s.d. units would give the month first place.  

      

[RedSky]

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING.        TOO BAD WE STARTED THE MONTH WITH A 27 DEGREE DEFICIT AFTER JUST 5 DAYS.          THIS LOOKS LIKE RECORD MATERIAL.       The s.d. in July is about 1.3 degrees, and 4s.d. units would give the month first place.  

      

Can I add 5-10F for the GFS long range cold bias?

 

[SACRUS]

7/7

EWR: 97
LGA: 96
PHL: 96
New Brnswck: 94
TEB: 94
ACY: 94
BLM: 93
TTN: 93
NYC: 91
ISP: 90
JFK: 89

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 96 here.

Current temp 84/DP 73/RH 70%

[wdrag]

No time to be sure of a headline Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 218h but am pretty sure the will be a notable period for a couple of days SVR/FF and developing heat wave by next Tuesday. Will reevaluate when time but certainly not today for me.

Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking?   This Sunday-following Sunday.  Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR.  Also,  the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday the 18th.

 

Not sure what guidance folks are looking at for no heat next week, but I see quite a warm anomaly in the GEFS and also EC OP.  Maybe I'm too hasty?  Will evaluate Friday but as it stands now,  I'm in for a topic -  just don't have the properly framed wording, including timing.  710A

 

AT 714A added EPS and GEFS 500MB anomaly.  Top down long-day heat evolution and I think the MOS is going to trail reality on daily warming.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90), or +3.0.

Unbelievable HW to start July 14?     Scaping 100 for over a week?       Expect power failures deluxe.

This is only a GFS Special Event right now.      It has no sponsors.

77*(83%RH) here at 6am., hazy blue, scattered clouds. 

[binbisso]

27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90), or +3.0.

Unbelievable HW to start July 14?     Scaping 100 for over a week?       Expect power failures deluxe.

This is only a GFS Special Event right now.      It has no sponsors.

77*(83%RH) here at 6am., hazy blue, scattered clouds. 

 My point and click forecast for the next 7 days is -3.  my highest daytime temperature the next 7 days is 86*. Normal is 85*.   Saturday and Sunday morning lows into the sixties and highs around 80. If forecast is reasonably accurate only 2 90* days thru the first 15 days of July. I'll take that any year!

[wdrag]

Leaving this to consider on what I think is coming next week... (not gospel but I think this is a pretty substantial signal)

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Clouds will increase. It will still be very warm today. Showers and thunderstorms are likely. There could be heavy downpours that could produce street and highway flooding in places. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 86°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 88°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 88.7°

Elsa will pass through the region tonight into tomorrow bringing a period of gusty winds and heavy rain. General rainfall amounts tonight through tomorrow will be 1”-3” with locally higher amounts.

[uofmiami]

Just now, bluewave said:

A 594 dm ridge in mid July means upper 90s to around 100°. But the Euro has plenty of cloud cover in the forecast. Not sure if it’s too pessimistic or there is just so much moisture from all the rain and high dew points in the East?

Seems to have the warmest 850 temps N of us too, as has been the pattern it seems.

 

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Leaving this to consider on what I think is coming next week... (not gospel but I think this is a pretty substantial signal)

I'd be shocked to see 100F readings after all this rain. We'll probably end up with low to mid 90s with high dews leading to more storms.