donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: Can you explain a little more about your analysis? The analysis is a multiple regression analysis. Independent variables are nearby sites. The dependent variable is Central Park. The timeframe is 1971-00, the last period for most of the timeframe was not impacted by excessive tree growth. Due to changing sun angles, I created three separate equations, one for June, one for July, and one for August. The coefficient of determination is well over .9 e.g., June was 0.955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Current temp 93/DP 73/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Tree and shrub growth in Central Park really began to block the sun from reaching the sensor around 1991. From 1931 to 1991, NYC was generally -2 to +2 warmer than Newark. This was before the deep shade during the peak daily heating hours at the NYC ASOS. Since 1991, NYC has been about -2 to -4 cooler than Newark for the years that went to 100° or greater at Newark. So it’s quite possible that the trees being too close in 2011 prevented NYC from making a run at the 1936 all-time record. Years with a Tie and NYC in the lead bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature NYC Max Temperature 1 2011 108 104….-4 2 2001 105 103….-2 - 1993 105 102….-3 - 1966 105 103….-2 - 1953 105 102….-3 - 1949 105 102….-3 3 2012 104 100…-4 - 1995 104 102….-2 - 1936 104 106…+2 4 2021 103 98….-5 - 2010 103 outage missed high 103……? - 1999 103 101….-2 - 1954 103 100….-3 - 1948 103 103…..T 5 2005 102 99….-3 - 1994 102 98….-4 - 1991 102 102….T - 1977 102 104.+2 - 1952 102 100…-2 - 1944 102 102...T - 1943 102 99…-3 6 2013 101 98….-3 - 2006 101 97….-4 - 1997 101 97….-4 - 1988 101 99…-2 - 1980 101 102…+1 - 1957 101 101…..T - 1955 101 100….-1 - 1933 101 102….+1 7 2002 100 98….-2 - 1986 100 98….-2 - 1982 100 98….-2 - 1973 100 98….-2 - 1963 100 98…-2 - 1959 100 97…-3 - 1937 100 100…T - 1934 100 101….+1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 95/71/102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 93/75/107 at my station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 88 up here in the poconos... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Tree and shrub growth in Central Park really began to block the sun from reaching the sensor around 1991. From 1931 to 1991, NYC was generally -2 to +2 warmer than Newark. This was before the deep shade during the peak daily hours at the NYC ASOS. Since 1991, NYC has been about -2 to -4 cooler than Newark for the years that went to 100° or greater at Newark. So it’s quite possible that the trees being too close in 2011 prevented NYC from making a run at the 1936 all-time record. Years with a Tie and NYC in the lead bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature NYC Max Temperature 1 2011 108 104….-4 2 2001 105 103….-2 - 1993 105 102….-3 - 1966 105 103….-2 - 1953 105 102….-3 - 1949 105 102….-3 3 2012 104 100…-4 - 1995 104 102….-2 - 1936 104 106…+2 4 2021 103 98….-5 - 2010 103 outage missed high 103……? - 1999 103 101….-2 - 1954 103 100….-3 - 1948 103 103…..T 5 2005 102 99….-3 - 1994 102 98….-4 - 1991 102 102….T - 1977 102 104.+2 - 1952 102 100…-2 - 1944 102 102...T - 1943 102 99…-3 6 2013 101 98….-3 - 2006 101 97….-4 - 1997 101 97….-4 - 1988 101 99…-2 - 1980 101 102…+1 - 1957 101 101…..T - 1955 101 100….-1 - 1933 101 102….+1 7 2002 100 98….-2 - 1986 100 98….-2 - 1982 100 98….-2 - 1973 100 98….-2 - 1963 100 98…-2 - 1959 100 97…-3 - 1937 100 100…T - 1934 100 101….+1 are there any days NYC was 100 and Newark wasn't?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Another year, another tropical storm having us in the "red cone on uncertainty". Impacts shouldnt be that major, but a major feat seeing every year recently we were in the cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, uncle W said: are there any days NYC was 100 and Newark wasn't?... The only day that I can find was 7-18-77. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only day that I can find was 7-18-77. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 I wonder which one of our early forum members paid off the zookeepers. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 If greenery is keeping Central Park a few degrees cooler in the day, it may also be keeping it a few degrees warmer at night. Also, does anyone know where Newark has its temperature sensor located and are there pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 July 1953 also. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1953-07-17 100 76 1953-07-18 101 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1953-07-17 99 77 1953-07-18 99 76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Topped out at 96° here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 29 minutes ago, lee59 said: If greenery is keeping Central Park a few degrees cooler in the day, it may also be keeping it a few degrees warmer at night. Also, does anyone know where Newark has its temperature sensor located and are there pictures. Most of Newark Airport is paved over in blacktop, one big parking lot. So even if the sensor is in a "shady" area (doubtful) the entire area is a heat sink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Most of Newark Airport is paved over in blacktop, one big parking lot. So even if the sensor is in a "shady" area (doubtful) the entire area is a heat sink. The ASOS is on a grassy area near the eastern edge of the airport close to a creek. Our local airports are similar to the adjacent neighborhoods. Newark and Elizabeth have been built up for ages like most of our urban areas. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 88/73 for the high here today, not exactly sweltering but still hot out... Peak so far this year was 91 both back in May and last Tuesday.... Also first severe t storm watch this far east this year, all the others so far were cut off at the queens nassau border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Temperatures surged into the 90s today except right along the immediate coastline where a cooling sea breeze held temperatures in the 80s. Strong thunderstorms knocked the temperature down into the lower 70s during the evening, but the relief will be temporary. Tomorrow will again be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s. Clouds will increase later during the afternoon or evening. Thursday and Friday could be unsettled as a frontal boundary sits near the region and Elsa passes to the south and east of the region. Out West, another above to much above normal regime will likely set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of this latest bout of heat could occur during the weekend into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 125°-130°. In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +3.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.069 today. On July 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.485 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 hours ago, lee59 said: If greenery is keeping Central Park a few degrees cooler in the day, it may also be keeping it a few degrees warmer at night. Also, does anyone know where Newark has its temperature sensor located and are there pictures. you can see it on google maps at the southern part of the airport between the runway and turnpike...across from ikea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Picked up 1.01" of rain so far today with more to come. Current temp 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 7/6 EWR: 97 LGA: 96 New Brnswck: 95 TEB: 95 PHL: 94 BLM: 93 TTN: 93 NYC: 92 ACY: 91 JFK: 87 ISP: 85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 18 hours ago, SACRUS said: hazy tinge from summer fires. Reminiscent of 2002 when smoke limited some record highs that June / July. I remember 2002 as very hot and very dry, my grass was yellow that year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: The only day that I can find was 7-18-77. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 wow that 1977 heatwave is very underrated (another 11 year summer!)....3 out of 4 days 100+? and how did we cool down to 92 and shoot back up to 104?! that very rarely ever happens by the way, Chris, on how many of those days did JFK reach or exceed 100? and was LGA hotter or cooler than NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: July 1953 also. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1953-07-17 100 76 1953-07-18 101 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1953-07-17 99 77 1953-07-18 99 76 wow thats strange, I wonder what kept EWR cooler back then? Did the same thing happen in the epic late August- early September super heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Picked up 2.55" of rain for the day yesterday. High for the day was 97 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 As we pile up positive departures of rainfall this July in our NYC subforum (anticipating spotty 4+ Wed-Fri this week in our area), I am interested in the period of Sunday the 11th-Friday the 16th for one to three severe weather or FF events. Details to be determined. The general setup is a strengthening Western Atlantic Ridge (WAR) resulting in a stalled surface frontal boundary roughly Appalachians to the northeast USA, PWAT building again fairly consistently to 1.8" AND decent wind aloft on the edge of the WAR. I could see this displacing west of us, but for now...the GFS/EC/GGEM op guidance has me thinking it's a bit easier to mesoscale flash flood in this pattern. Thank goodness there are no TC's (so far) to get caught up around the periphery of the Bermuda Ridge next week . Will not start this as a topic til at least Thu (8th) or Friday morning (9th), permitting further evaluation to confirm the above general impressions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 This reminds me of the Indian monsoon pattern. Record heat in June followed by heavy rains in July. It’s a Newark record for early July rain following 100°+ heat in late June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 7 Max Temperature Jun 24 -30 1 1984-07-07 4.83 90 2 2021-07-07 3.07 103 3 1989-07-07 2.86 96 - 1942-07-07 2.86 88 4 2017-07-07 2.62 91 5 2014-07-07 2.60 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90) or +3.0. We should be back near Normal for the month by the 16th. 73*(90%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. Small chance of repeating yesterday's slow moving cell totals. At any rate these will come late in the day again. Elsa remnants will be nearby early Friday morning. The EURO has 100% Probability of > 39mph gusts, say from CI into Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be partly sunny and hot today. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 92° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 95° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.6° Tomorrow and Friday will likely see periods of rain and thunderstorms. Elsa could bring a period of heavy downpours to parts of the region on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1.45" One of the best lightning days in years yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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