July 2021

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats what I wanted to ask you Chris, do you think the 102-103 there Jun 29-30 was the peak hit of the summer?  Since it happened at the tail end of June, it was basically July weather starting a day or two early.  Or do you think we have prospects of beating that kind of heat later in the month (say around July 20th or later?)  Speaking specifically for JFK and coastal areas.

The June heat this year was very unusual on several fronts. The all-time heat records in the West occurred in June instead of July. All-time heat records are usually set in July. The Newark 103° at the end of June and 597 dm ridge were also early. So we’ll have to see if this means a rare June highest temperature. The active convection pattern coming up also feels like what we see sometimes in August after late July hottest temperatures of the summer. 

[psv88]

Incredible day today. 80 now, 84 for the high 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 78 here, great day for outdoor activites.

[uncle W]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats what I wanted to ask you Chris, do you think the 102-103 there Jun 29-30 was the peak hit of the summer?  Since it happened at the tail end of June, it was basically July weather starting a day or two early.  Or do you think we have prospects of beating that kind of heat later in the month (say around July 20th or later?)  Speaking specifically for JFK and coastal areas.

some years with June having a temp 97 or greater and July having similar temps...

1923...98 6/26...99 7/20...

1931...97 6/20...97 7/28...99 8/7...

1934..101 6/29...98 7/21...

1952..100 6/26...97 7/22...

1953...97 6/26...102 7/18...100/102 in Aug/Sept

1966..101 6/27...103 7/3...101 7/13

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures surged into the 80s today as warmer air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s.

Meanwhile across northern Scandinavia, exceptional heat toppled records. Three locations joined the "70-90" (70°N-90°F) club today. Banak, Norway reached 94°. Tanabru, Norway hit 92°. Utsjoki, Finland topped out at 91°.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +0.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.505 today.

On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.262 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.474 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Finally, on July 4, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.467 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 4.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The June heat this year was very unusual on several fronts. The all-time heat records in the West occurred in June instead of July. All-time heat records are usually set in July. The Newark 103° at the end of June and 597 dm ridge were also early. So we’ll have to see if this means a rare June highest temperature. The active convection pattern coming up also feels like what we see sometimes in August after late July hottest temperatures of the summer. 

When was the last time we had our hottest weather in June? 1994?   I know in 1996 it was in May and in 1976 it was in April lol.

 

Weird the disparity in 1994 between NYC and PHL, in PHL the heat continued for the entire summer, but it didn't in NYC?  In PHL 1994 was basically a repeat of 1993 wasn't it?  Amazing combo of summers- 1991, 1993, 1994, and 1995, with 1992 the glaring exception rainy and cold summer!  Not even cool, actually COLD!

 

By the way on this date in July 1999 we began our two day streak of 101 degrees, I loved that month, ended up with 20 90 degree days and our hottest month on record (beating July 1955) until July 2010 knocked it off.  I love those 11 year summers!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, uncle W said:

some years with June having a temp 97 or greater and July having similar temps...

1923...98 6/26...99 7/20...

1931...97 6/20...97 7/28...99 8/7...

1934..101 6/29...98 7/21...

1952..100 6/26...97 7/22...

1953...97 6/26...102 7/18...100/102 in Aug/Sept

1966..101 6/27...103 7/3...101 7/13

Thanks, Uncle, are 1953 and 1966 the only two years to have 100+ temps in multiple months?

 

1953 had it in 3, wow.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures surged into the 80s today as warmer air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s.

Meanwhile across northern Scandinavia, exceptional heat toppled records. Three locations joined the "70-90" (70°N-90°F) club today. Banak, Norway reached 94°. Tanabru, Norway hit 92°. Utsjoki, Finland topped out at 91°.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +0.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.505 today.

On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.262 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.474 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Finally, on July 4, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.467 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 4.

 

wow I suspect Scandanavia has never hit 100?

 

[uncle W]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Uncle, are 1953 and 1966 the only two years to have 100+ temps in multiple months?

 

1953 had it in 3, wow.

 

1966 and 1953 had three heat waves topping out at 100 degrees or higher...1953 had two days of 100 or more during its 12 day heat wave from late August to early September...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I suspect Scandanavia has never hit 100?

 

It hasn’t. 99 is the highest on record.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures surged into the 80s today as warmer air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s.

Meanwhile across northern Scandinavia, exceptional heat toppled records. Three locations joined the "70-90" (70°N-90°F) club today. Banak, Norway reached 94°. Tanabru, Norway hit 92°. Utsjoki, Finland topped out at 91°.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +0.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.505 today.

On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.262 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.474 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Finally, on July 4, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.467 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 4.

 

Don, I see you mentioned the second half of July and into August, do you think our late June temperatures will be exceeded at some point this summer, at least at  NYC and JFK?

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, I see you mentioned the second half of July and into August, do you think our late June temperatures will be exceeded at some point this summer, at least at  NYC and JFK?

 

JFK: Probably 

NYC: A small probability.

Based on a regression analysis tied to surrounding stations, Central Park would have hit 100F had it not been for the trees. It also would have 2 more 90F days so far than has been recorded.

[SACRUS]

7/5

EWR: 89
PHL: 88
New Brnswck: 88
TTN: 87
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 84
NYC: 83
JFK: 81
ISP: 78

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: Probably 

NYC: A small probability.

Based on a regression analysis tied to surrounding stations, Central Park would have hit 100F had it not been for the trees. It also would have 2 more 90F days so far than has been recorded.

I wanted to ask that about the high temps on June 30th.  Since LGA hit 100 and EWR hit 103.  If this were 1993 when we have an ample sample size of such days, it definitely would have hit 100.  Maybe the day before too when LGA hit 99 and EWR hit 102?

 

I think JFK's overall high temp for the year is 94 and that was way back in May?  They're usually good to get to 95-96 at least once every year.

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 90 here.

Current temp 75/DP 65/RH 72%

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/89),or +3.0

73*(85%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, some thin clouds.       85* by 1pm.

CMC has the most rain from Elsa, but it is just an inch.

Rain today should come late ie.  after beach hours.

Hottest part of summer seems to be ready to live up to its reputation at  +4.0----July 13-21,  82(73/91)

[bluewave]

Plenty of smoke from the wildfires.

 

[dmillz25]

Just now, bluewave said:

Plenty of smoke from the wildfires.

 

Yeah it’s definitely hazy right now

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

It will become partly sunny and hot today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 98°

Philadelphia: 93°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.7°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Tomorrow will be another hot day. 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wanted to ask that about the high temps on June 30th.  Since LGA hit 100 and EWR hit 103.  If this were 1993 when we have an ample sample size of such days, it definitely would have hit 100.  Maybe the day before too when LGA hit 99 and EWR hit 102?

 

I think JFK's overall high temp for the year is 94 and that was way back in May?  They're usually good to get to 95-96 at least once every year.

 

June 29 would have been 98 in Central Park based on the equation.

[SACRUS]

48 - 60 hours  (Tue 7/6 and Wed 7/7) of some high heat and humidity with some evening storms today / wed.  Thu also warm to hot but tropical remnants tracking near the area by Thu (7/8) overnight into Friday.  Some storms enhanced by the tropical fetch on Thu then impacts from the elsie on Friday.  Beyond there a bit more tropical this weekend Sat (7/10) and Sun (7/11) Florida like warmth and humidity and plenty of showers and storms. 

Western Atlantic ridge builds back and out West the Heat machine rebuilds over the south west, looks like santa anna next week into  southern california.  Back here Mon (7/12) through mid week looks very warm to hot but continued storminess routinely.   More chance of 90s by Monday an into the mid week.  

 

Beyond there and into mid month pieces of the western heat factory spilling east as we ride the rim of the W Atlantic ridge.  Overall warm to hot and routine storminess.  Later in the month could see larger ridge or perhaps linking between the Western Ridge and the W. Atl ride.

[SACRUS]

hazy tinge from summer fires. Reminiscent of 2002 when smoke limited some record highs that June / July. 

[SACRUS]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

[RippleEffect]

Had to come back to New York for my surgery check up for one day man this weather is disgusting it’s bad today.  Take care, I’m going back on vacation today screw New York this is why I hate New York during the summer you can barely breathe! 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah it’s definitely hazy right now

 

 

[A Moonlit Sky]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK: Probably 

NYC: A small probability.

Based on a regression analysis tied to surrounding stations, Central Park would have hit 100F had it not been for the trees. It also would have 2 more 90F days so far than has been recorded.

Can you explain a little more about your analysis?

[doncat]

92/74

[LoboLeader1]

91/69 here

[psv88]

90/77