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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just about the lousiest conditions you could think of for 7/4 weekend. Thankfully tomorrow should be nicer. 

Probably the first year that a Memorial Day weekend and July 4th weekend had at least one day with such a cool max. All the more unusual when you consider that we had record heat before both weekends. Goes to the extreme wavelength changes that we have been experiencing over short periods of time.

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Bouncing around 68* during this afternoon.

Speaking of BN holiday weekends.

1979         July 4,5,6,7       58,53,54,59      but a high of 95 by the 13th.

1986         July 4  was 55/77 but immediately it was 91,98,98,93.         In addition, anyone who was watching the Statue of Liberty 100th Anniversary fireworks show outside, needed a sweatshirt that night.        I was on the roof of the Battery Maritime Building where you get the Governor's Island Ferry and certainly needed one.

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22 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Bouncing around 68* during this afternoon.

Speaking of BN holiday weekends.

1979         July 4,5,6,7       58,53,54,59      but a high of 95 by the 13th.

1986         July 4  was 55/77 but immediately it was 91,98,98,93.         In addition, anyone who was watching the Statue of Liberty 100th Anniversary fireworks show outside, needed a sweatshirt that night.        I was on the roof of the Battery Maritime Building where you get the Governor's Island Ferry and certainly needed one.

Good evening CIK. I was on my roof ( Red Hook/Cobble Hill ) and remember that chill. I believe Frank Sinatra was part of the live entertainment. My daughters, than 11 and 6, were on the roof with me. A great fireworks show. My wife, always the smart one, had the best and warmest seat, in front of the TV. As always ….

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The temperature peaked at 66° in New York City's Central Park.  The last time the temperature rose no higher than the 60s in Central Park during July occurred on July 25, 2013 when the temperature peaked at 68°. This was the coldest July high temperature since July 8, 2005 when the temperature also topped out at 66°. The daily mean temperature of 62.5° is the coldest July figure in Central Park since July 12, 1990 when the mean temperature was also 62.5°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region early next week.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +19.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.143 today.

On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.276 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.367 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(69/90), or +2.0.

63*(85%RH) here at 6am,  overcast, breaks.

Elsa looks like extra rain only for us on July 08-09.      Track really did not change much for days---and just one good run that had 6" for us.

GFS-Extended has loads of 90's from July 06-28.

 

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature peaked at 66° in New York City's Central Park.  The last time the temperature rose no higher than the 60s in Central Park during July occurred on July 25, 2013 when the temperature peaked at 68°. This was the coldest July high temperature since July 8, 2005 when the temperature also topped out at 66°. The daily mean temperature of 62.5° is the coldest July figure in Central Park since July 12, 1990 when the mean temperature was also 62.5°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region early next week.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +19.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.143 today.

On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.276 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.367 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Don, in July 1993, on the 2nd, didn't we have a cool rainy day similar to this one?  I believe the high/low was 66/62.....and a week later we were baking in one of the greatest heatwaves the area has ever seen and a record hot summer with 39 90 degree days and 3 days at 100 or above!

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16 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

This weather is so bizarre for July. 43 degrees colder than just a few days ago. Absolutely stunning. 

Not that dissimilar to July 1993.  We hit 95-96 right after the Summer solstice that year in late June right down to the coast, then we had a cool, breezy, rainy day on July 2nd when the splits were 66/62 and a week after that we were in the middle of one of the greatest heatwaves the area has ever experienced with 10 straight days of 90+ and 3 straight days of 100+ (and EWR had 5 straight days of 100+!)  We ended up with the hottest summer we've ever had with 39 90+ degree days with 20 of them coming in July.  July 2nd became a distant memory.....

 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably the first year that a Memorial Day weekend and July 4th weekend had at least one day with such a cool max. All the more unusual when you consider that we had record heat before both weekends. Goes to the extreme wavelength changes that we have been experiencing over short periods of time.

Might be a pattern that repeats....look at my June-July 1993 comparison

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might be a pattern that repeats....

This was the first time ever that LGA had a high in the 60s only three days after reaching 100°. I will just add the instances of late June and July 100s below. The high of 67° yesterday was well below the average following so soon after a 100° day.

6-30-21….100

7-3-21……67
 

6-26-52….101

6-28-52……82

 

7-21-19…..100

7-22-19…..77

 

7-19-13….100

7-22-13….82

 

7-18-12…..101

7-20-12……73

 

7-6-10…..103

7-7-10…..101

7-10-10….85

 

7-27-05….100

7-28-05….81

 

7-6-99…..101

7-9-99……85

 

7-15-95….103

7-16-95…..86

 

7-20-91…..101

7-21-91…..100

7-22-91……89

 

7-2-66….101

7-3-66….107

7-6-66….87

 

7-22-57….101

7-23-57…82

 

7-22-55….100

7-23-55….100

7-24-55….87

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Just now, bluewave said:

This was the first time ever that LGA had a high in the 60s only three days after reaching 100°. I will just add the instances of late June and July 100s below. The high of 67° yesterday was well below the average following so soon after a 100° day.

6-30-21….100

7-3-21……67
 

6-26-52….101

6-28-52……82

 

7-21-19…..100

7-32-19…..77

 

7-19-13….100

7-22-13….82

 

7-18-12…..101

7-20-12……73

 

7-6-10…..103

7-7-10…..101

7-10-10….85

 

7-27-05….100

7-28-05….81

 

7-6-99…..101

7-9-99……85

 

7-15-95….103

7-16-95…..86

 

7-20-91…..101

7-21-91…..100

7-22-91……89

 

7-2-66….101

7-3-66….107

7-6-66….87

 

7-22-57….101

7-23-57…82

 

7-22-55….100

7-23-55….100

7-24-55….87

Chris can you dig up June-July 1993?  If you could please use NYC/JFK temps for that since thats what I remember.....95/96 around the summer solstice in late June (JFK hit 96 if I remember right)...then a cool/rainy day very similar to yesterday on July 2nd, when the split was 66/62 (NYC/JFK) and then that all time record heatwave and kick start to a historically hot summer a week later.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the first time ever that LGA had a high in the 60s only three days after reaching 100°. I will just add the instances of late June and July 100s below. The high of 67° yesterday was well below the average following so soon after a 100° day.

6-30-21….100

7-3-21……67
 

6-26-52….101

6-28-52……82

 

7-21-19…..100

7-32-19…..77

 

7-19-13….100

7-22-13….82

 

7-18-12…..101

7-20-12……73

 

7-6-10…..103

7-7-10…..101

7-10-10….85

 

7-27-05….100

7-28-05….81

 

7-6-99…..101

7-9-99……85

 

7-15-95….103

7-16-95…..86

 

7-20-91…..101

7-21-91…..100

7-22-91……89

 

7-2-66….101

7-3-66….107

7-6-66….87

 

7-22-57….101

7-23-57…82

 

7-22-55….100

7-23-55….100

7-24-55….87

7-21-19…..100

7-32-19…..77

 

Chris, I assume the second date should be 7-22?

 

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