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Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. Showers remain possible. The temperature will struggle to reach 70° in New York City and could fall just short of it. The last time the temperature rose no higher than the 60s in Central Park during July occurred on July 25, 2013 when the temperature peaked at 68°. Before that, the last such day was July 8, 2005.

Sunday will be variably cloudy and warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region early next week.

Out West, the air mass responsible for the unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave moved farther north and east in Canada. Numerous record high temperatures were broken in Saskatchewan. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Meadow Lake, SK: 96° (old record: 85°, 1978)
Regina: 95° (old record: 93°, 1886)
Rosetown, SK: 103° (old record: 88°, 2013)
Saskatoon, SK: 105° (old record: 92°, 1986)
Uranium City, SK: 92° (old record: 88°, 2013)

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +25.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.553 today.

On June 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.370 (RMM). The June 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.604 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 76degs.(67/85) or about -1.0.

The threat from Elsa seems minimal as the EURO was right about the weakening near the D.R./H.      It has only a short time to reassemble itself.

62*(94%RH), overcast, streets wet.

 

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Morning thoughts...

This morning, the temperature fell to 59° in Central Park. That was the first time since July 8, 2009 that the temperature fell into the 50s there during July.

It will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool today. Showers and periods of light rain are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 72°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.0°

The last July day with a maximum temperature below 70° at Central Park was July 25, 2013 when the thermometer topped out at 68°.

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Cool / cloudy and damp next 24 - 36 hours.  ULL moving through brining showers, pop storms and much cooler than normal highs.  We'll see if we can get into enough clearing to exceed 69 and get into the 70s, otherwise places like EWR may be 35 - 40 degrees lower highs than Wed (6/30).  

Much improved conditions for the second part of the fourth of July weekend Sun the fourth and Monday the 5th.  Sunday scattered rain / showers look mainly north and it looks partly to perhaps mostly sunny at times.  Monday warmer SW flow returns with temperatures mid / upper 80s (warmer spots).

Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7) widespread 90s mid / upper (warmer spots) 850 temps >18c.  Wed could see more storms towards the pm.

 

All eyes on the tropics Thu (7/8) and Fri 7/9, depending on the track Florida-like weather steamy, hot and plenty of pop storms.

Sat (710) - Season of the Western Atlantic ridge, as guidance is showing a similar progression, we will see how far westarward the expansion can get.  Overall warm to hot and looking like almost daily storms.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If Newark can hold a high in the 60s on July 3rd,  then it will be the first time following a Christmas with a high in the 60s.

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Max Temperature July 3rd
     
1964-12-25 69 86   0.0 0
1982-12-25 68 96   0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 84   0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 83   0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 ?   0.0 0
1940-12-25 61 80   0.0 0
1994-12-25 60 83   0.0 0

could be the first time since 1964 Newark had a max of 99 or higher on 6/30 and then a day with a max in the mid 60's by 7/9...

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If Newark can hold a high in the 60s on July 3rd,  then it will be the first time following a Christmas with a high in the 60s.

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Max Temperature July 3rd
     
1964-12-25 69 86   0.0 0
1982-12-25 68 96   0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 84   0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 83   0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 ?   0.0 0
1940-12-25 61 80   0.0 0
1994-12-25 60 83   0.0 0

There seems to be higher cigs than expected and more breaks over NNJ than I thought so I’m not sure if maybe they bounce up a few degrees this afternoon 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There seems to be higher cigs than expected and more breaks over NNJ than I thought so I’m not sure if maybe they bounce up a few degrees this afternoon 

It will be easier for LGA since it’s closer to the UL and has a cool NE flow off the Sound.

Data for December 25 - LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
July 3rd Max Temperature 
 
   
2015-12-25 64 82   0.0 0
2020-12-25 63 ?   0.0 0
2014-12-25 63 81   0.0 0
1982-12-25 62 91   0.0 0
1940-12-25 60 91   0.0 0
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