July 2021

[LibertyBell]

On 7/26/2021 at 5:24 PM, bluewave said:

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

 

Crazy how many of those were from 2019!  That was when JFK had their back to back 99 temps on the weekend and the highest heat index (117) of all time correct?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. And it was warmer than Central Park.

Don did they hit 90 today? I read that it got to 91 yesterday?

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, doncat said:

That chart has been posted numerous times this summer and it's always way off.

I think it's useful to show that even that model has no heat for our area through the middle of August outside of one day, on the 10th.

 

[BxEngine]

Outflow from the storm just to my north came through with some big gusts just now.

[Dark Star]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of the cooler Julys for a top 10 warmest June and July period.

 

Sure didn't feel much cooler, but then again, I'm probably still in shock from June...

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

Wow strong gusts ahead of this storm with mainly clear skies

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

 

All the July heat since 2010 has really raised the bar. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Season
Mean	79.9	79.9
2021	79.1	79.1
2020	80.8	80.8
2019	80.6	80.6
2018	78.2	78.2
2017	77.3	77.3
2016	79.9	79.9
2015	79.0	79.0
2014	77.0	77.0
2013	80.9	80.9
2012	80.8	80.8
2011	82.7	82.7
2010	82.3	82.3

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0
13	1995	79.5	0
-	1949	79.5	0
14	2006	79.4	0
-	1987	79.4	0
15	1981	79.2	0
-	1952	79.2	0
16	2021	79.1	5
17	2015	79.0	0
18	1980	78.8	0
19	2008	78.7	0
20	1973	78.6	0
21	2005	78.3	0
-	1982	78.3	0
22	2018	78.2	0

[nycwinter]

gusty winds in the city

[bluewave]

LGA gusting to 45 mph.

27 Jul 7:34 pm

83

58

43

NNW

25G45

10.00

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don did they hit 90 today? I read that it got to 91 yesterday?

 

Yesterday was 90. It appears that JFK fell short today.

[wdrag]

Wantage had G35 MPH 614P,  0.26" in that storm, and about 4 mi away, pea sized hail at ~620PM.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 32 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 21 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 16 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 27 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 22 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 28 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Out West, record temperatures were reported in a number of locations. Records included:

Billings: 106° (old record: 103°, 1935 and 1947)
Casper: 100° (old record: 99°, 2008)
Rapid City: 107° (old record: 104°, 1987)

Meanwhile, from 4 pm - 5 pm MST, Tucson picked up 1.27" of rain. Through 5:20 pm MST, Tucson had picked up 1.29" of rain, bringing the monthly total to 7.08". That makes July 2021 the wettest July on record in Tucson. The old record was 6.80", which was set in 2017. July 2021 is also Tucson's second wettest month on record.

A strong cold front will cross the region tonight the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. Showers and thundershowers are possible tonight and again on Thursday. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +10.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917 today.

On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.186 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.199 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Intensewind002]

Hit 89 for the high here todah

[doncat]

Cooling off nicely down to 77 after reaching 94 earlier.

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here.

Current temp 79/DP 60/RH 53%

[Cfa]

High of 91 here, same as yesterday.

Currently 79.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 74 here, after a high of 91 today. DP 60/RH 63%

 

[SACRUS]

7/27

EWR: 94
PHL: 94
ACY: 93
New Brnswck: 93
LGA: 91
TTN: 91
BLM: 91
TEB: 91
ISP: 89
NYC: 89
JFK: 88

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.48" rainfall so far since ~550P Tue and beneficial. Plenty of thunder since 6P, still here currently at midnight. 

[Rtd208]

@wdrag

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[wdrag]

Not threading yet... will wait til late today.   Could be tornadic near warm front.  A couple of models have very heavy rain near a triple point and so its a concern, especially NJ and maybe LI?  Have seen the wind fields.  Don't like some of the instab parameters. Need to rereview with 12z/28 guidance. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.44" of rain so far today with the rain/storms overnight.

[Tatamy]

Picked up 0.27” with the overnight storms.  This woke me up at 2:30am.

[bluewave]

Models hinting  at a very cool ending to July. Be interesting to see if a spot like Newark can actually dip under 60°. The last time this happened on July 31st at Newark was 1956.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/28/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04 CLIMO
 X/N  85| 69  78| 69  85| 59  82| 66  83| 65  82| 64  81| 67  85 67 86

 

Data for July 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1932-07-31	83	56	T	0.0	M
1956-07-31	81	58	0.00	0.0	0
1936-07-31	79	58	0.00	0.0	0
1964-07-31	82	61	0.00	0.0	0

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of July are averaging 76(68/84), or -1.0.

Month to date is. 76.5[-1.1].       July should end at  76.4[-1.1].

For tomorrow: EURO  1.8", CMC 1.2", GFS/SREF  0.4".

71*(85%RH) here at 6am, clearing skies, street wet.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly to mostly sunny today. It will also be cooler than yesterday with high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 88.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

[crossbowftw3]

Moderate risk across Wisconsin this afternoon into night for definite derecho potential. Look at how much instability is already building across MN.

 

[JustinRP37]

While I am a summer and winter enthusiast, this summer has been in the bottom for me. I really hope we can pull of a dry, beautiful fall after this gross summer. The standing water has really increased the mosquito population to the point where it is uncomfortable too go outside near wet areas. The ticks have also been off the charts, but that was predicted after the winter we had. Luckily this summer I have an administrative and teaching role otherwise I’d be out there collecting ticks for surveillance. While I normally enjoy some field work, this summer is worse than most. Bottom line though, always check for ticks!

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

While I am a summer and winter enthusiast, this summer has been in the bottom for me. I really hope we can pull of a dry, beautiful fall after this gross summer. The standing water has really increased the mosquito population to the point where it is uncomfortable too go outside near wet areas. The ticks have also been off the charts, but that was predicted after the winter we had. Luckily this summer I have an administrative and teaching role otherwise I’d be out there collecting ticks for surveillance. While I normally enjoy some field work, this summer is worse than most. Bottom line though, always check for ticks!

next week looks nice and dry-temps near 80 with low humidity.....

[ForestHillWx]

Projected low of 51 Friday a.m.; not sure that happens.