the_other_guy Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 18 hours ago, psv88 said: I would hope that as time goes on the departures do not continue to increase at the same pace as they did in the last decade. I think we see a much larger jump once the 1990s drops off, as the real warming seems to have started around 2000. After that jump, departures in any given month should be less. The real warming seems to have occurred with nighttime lows not dropping to our historical numbers. The experts on this forum correctly surmise that the air is more humid and the lapse rate is slower in air that is more moist. The bulk of your heavy warming has a occurred there. We are firmly in a subtropical climate at this point where our daytime highs and nighttime lows are only going to be separated by 10 or so degrees on our extreme days. Going forward, that factor is already baked in… Which means you’re just going to be dealing with normal warming trends… which if predictions are correct, won’t be nearly as alarming 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(67/82), or about -2.0. Still a tropical threat on EC for 7/7-7/9.*** Before that, EURO seems to have an error on July 3rd. with 4" here (in a tiny area). ***6" on the 06Z GFS for the 8th. EURO kills off system in 48hrs. near the D.R./H. For the record, the CMC kills the system there too, but re-develops it on the east coast of Florida---and it still ends up near us. 70*(91%RH), here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 No Elsa thread yet but checking again after 8p tonight. PRE and nearby Elsa now on GFS and GGEM overnight cycles but Storm missing on EC op??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler today. Showers and some heavy thunderstorms are possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 84.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 86.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 87.8° The weekend will start off on an unseasonably cool note. The temperature could remain in the 60s tomorrow in New York City. The last July day with a maximum temperature below 70° at Central Park was July 25, 2013 when the thermometer topped out at 68°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Elsa is officially a Cat 1 Euro is the only model not developing this low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like we are on track for a July 3rd first. We have never had such a cool July 3rd following an end ofJune 100° day before. The Euro has high temperatures in the upper 60s. Then we quickly warm back to the 90s on Tuesday. You can remember that late May experienced a first with how cool it was on the Saturday before Memorial Day. This followed the record heat a week before. So the wavelength behavior since May has featured these rapid swings. But the warm departures have been winning out overall. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 25 to Jun 30 July 3rd Max Temperature 1 2021-06-30 103 ? 2 1952-06-30 102 92 - 1943-06-30 102 79 3 1966-06-30 101 105 4 1959-06-30 100 85 - 1934-06-30 100 95 nothing compares to July 1963 and 1964...both years came in with near 100 degrees on the 1st...1963 had a high of 98 in Central Park...then a min of 59 on the 4th and 54 on the 9th...then 97 on the 14th and 98 on the 27th...1964 was 99 on the 1st...then a low of 61 on the 5th...A max of 63 on the 9th...more heat on the 18th...that was the past...2021 is a warmer version... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: No Elsa thread yet but checking again after 8p tonight. PRE and nearby Elsa now on GFS and GGEM overnight cycles but Storm missing on EC op??? I would love a healthy dose of rain from Elsa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Tough to keep track of all the hurricane records in recent years. This tropical season is already starting out with a bang. Alot of impressive waves coming off of Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Elsa looks like a TS from recon, NHC jumped the gun based on wind report from Barbados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: You’re on vacation for the next 3 weeks; I’d say that’s pretty awesome, regardless of the weather. Well yeah it’s fun but I go on vacation mostly for my son and my wife I’m retired already. It’s interesting to see all this moisture come up to New York this time of the year. Hoping the forecast changes a bit and we got more of a dry pattern, it sure rained enough for at least a few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I will be on vacation in Wildwood from the 10th to the 17th looks like 79-81 degrees average. I know it’s still a bit far out but looks like rain chances every single day. Gonna be great with kids couped up in a hotel room. SMH Looks like 90s this Tuesday but beyond that it looks like more rain and 70s. This is exactly what I didn’t want in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 0.83 in the bucket. More clouds and rain today. ULL moves through later tonight into tomorrow. We'll see how low highs are tomorrow and see if we can get a 40 degree difference at EWR from Wed to Sat. Cloudy, wet and very unsettled on Saturday the 3rd of July. The Fourth of July is looking much better than previously forecasted earlier in the week and while it may not be completely rain free, most showers look light and scattered AM and some PM as the ULL fully lifts out. Period or breaks of sun should allow temps to rebound from the 60s saturday to mid/upper 70s. Jul 5th - Jul 9th - warm to hot and frequent evening storms another blast of Florida. 850 temps surge to >18c Tuesday (7/6) and Wed (7/7) only clouds / storms will hinder mid - upper 90s. Need to watch Elis Thu (7/8) and Fri (7/9) otherwise hot and humid and more late storms. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge looking to return in the 7/10 and beyond as we see similar hints on the longer range guidance as we saw ahead of this past late June ridge. Overall warm to hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, dave0176 said: I will be on vacation in Wildwood from the 10th to the 17th looks like 79-81 degrees average. I know it’s still a bit far out but looks like rain chances every single day. Gonna be great with kids couped up in a hotel room. SMH Looks like 90s this Tuesday but beyond that it looks like more rain and 70s. This is exactly what I didn’t want in July. Wed looks like 90s, pending on storms which all look to pop later on the day. Thu/Fri all contingent on Elsa track. Beyond that watch for the western atlatic ridge to build back later net week/weekend (7/10) and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 47 minutes ago, dave0176 said: I will be on vacation in Wildwood from the 10th to the 17th looks like 79-81 degrees average. I know it’s still a bit far out but looks like rain chances every single day. Gonna be great with kids couped up in a hotel room. SMH Looks like 90s this Tuesday but beyond that it looks like more rain and 70s. This is exactly what I didn’t want in July. that usually ends up being afternoon pop up stuff-most of the day is rain free and maybe you get a late day T-storm. It's also 10 days away which is fantasy range anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we can get the first two early Julys in a row with a tropical storm. Fay had a lot of rain but the wind was meh up here. Isais was a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 You can see the ULL cutting off over Lake Erie and the hung up front over the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 For some reason the other image is cached on the previous day (7/1) https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 0.83 in the bucket. More clouds and rain today. ULL moves through later tonight into tomorrow. We'll see how low highs are tomorrow and see if we can get a 40 degree difference at EWR from Wed to Sat. Cloudy, wet and very unsettled on Saturday the 3rd of July. The Fourth of July is looking much better than previously forecasted earlier in the week and while it may not be completely rain free, most showers look light and scattered AM and some PM as the ULL fully lifts out. Period or breaks of sun should allow temps to rebound from the 60s saturday to mid/upper 70s. Jul 5th - Jul 9th - warm to hot and frequent evening storms another blast of Florida. 850 temps surge to >18c Tuesday (7/6) and Wed (7/7) only clouds / storms will hinder mid - upper 90s. Need to watch Elis Thu (7/8) and Fri (7/9) otherwise hot and humid and more late storms. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge looking to return in the 7/10 and beyond as we see similar hints on the longer range guidance as we saw ahead of this past late June ridge. Overall warm to hot... I'm not seeing any signs of the WAR on long range guidance from July 8th through the middle of the month.. There looks to be a trough in the East With normal to slightly below normal 850s. have to remember the normal high in Central Park is 85 and 87 at Newark so a high temperature Of 90 and 92 respectively is only plus 5 and I would not consider that hot During peak summer climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I think what happens in the East will depend on what elsa does. If she can remain strong tropical system as she heads up into the Canadian maritimes amd Greenland She could alter the 500 MB pattern And consequently a trough in the East. A week or non existent Elsa Better chance the WAR rears it's ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, binbisso said: I'm not seeing any signs of the WAR on long range guidance from July 8th through the middle of the month.. There looks to be a trough in the East With normal to slightly below normal 850s. have to remember the normal high in Central Park is 85 and 87 at Newark so a high temperature Of 90 and 92 respectively is only plus 5 and I would not consider that hot During peak summer climo. Trough looks to be centered over the GL/OV in the timeframe 7/8 - with the Western Atlantic Ridge just offshore, similar projection ahead of the late June expansion. You'll also see pieces of the strong heat out west bleeding east in periods, first 7/6 - 7/8 with 850 >18c and depending on clouds/storms mid / upper 90s those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Trough looks to be centered over the GL/OV in the timeframe 7/8 - with the Western Atlantic Ridge just offshore, similar projection ahead of the late June expansion. See my post above. And I agree I wouldn't bet against the WAR At this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 quick little downpour just popped up over Staten Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, SACRUS said: You can see the ULL cutting off over Lake Erie and the hung up front over the area. Gm Sacrus, thats yesterdays sat image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1.17" since Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Gm Sacrus, thats yesterdays sat image Check post below - cache issue that has been occurring for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1.21 inches of rain here between yesterday and today. Showers on and off here this morning, much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Looks like the latest GFS has a much weaker tropical system near Florida. Not really a surprise, very early for hurricanes still. Plus the speed it is moving at makes it hard to intensify and then add on any land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Heading AC between the 7-11 and hoping for good beach weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like the latest GFS has a much weaker tropical system near Florida. Not really a surprise, very early for hurricanes still. Plus the speed it is moving at makes it hard to intensify and then add on any land interaction. will come down to how it interacts with Haiti as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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