July 2021

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and a bit warmer than yesterday. Humidity will still be fairly low and temperatures will rise to the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.9°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. A shower or thundershower is possible.

In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce additional significant monsoon rainfall.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Why cant the NWS hire someone to clear the brush if the Park Conservancy wont do it?  And did the Park Conservancy give a reason as to why they wont do it?

Also why not relocate the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?  The equipment has been relocated before within the Park hasn't it?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

But what about for JFK?  If they are #1 during the 2010s it's because of how hot the early part of the period was (2010-2013).

Inland locations are definitely getting hotter.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

I dont understand why it's so difficult to get these people to chop off some vegetation.  Otherwise just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow.  Neither should be a big deal.

 

[the_other_guy]

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

 

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

 

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

[SACRUS]

80 / 58 and a very nice summer day.  Reminds me of the So Cal warmth.  Tomorrow once we get through any storms shoudl start an (overall) warmer - hot period Sunday (7/25) - the next week.  850 temps looks to rise to >15c and some guidance brings in spatters of 18c in the period.  On e rim of the ridge and heat spread from the west.  Warmer spots should notch at least 4 90 degree days but the strongest heat is south of the region for the most part.  There will be some interruptions of heat with the n/nnw flow mid week or late week before another brief surge of warmer to hot air later next weekend 7/30 and into early August.  Then need to watch the W Atlantic Ridge and if the Rockies ridge can surge more heat east.  Till then today should be a enjoyable one!

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

 

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

 

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

NY has too many skyscrapers already.  These new rectangular shaped monstrosities are disgusting, built by the rich for the rich.

 

[SACRUS]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the 11 yr summer is happening out west and the cicadas are down south lol

 

Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep.  EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30.  We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep.  EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30.  We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.

Sounds very 1953-like.  What happened so late in the season to make it so hot that year?

 

[uncle W]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds very 1953-like.  What happened so late in the season to make it so hot that year?

 

A bomb testing...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But what about for JFK?  If they are #1 during the 2010s it's because of how hot the early part of the period was (2010-2013).

Inland locations are definitely getting hotter.

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Wow my post disappeared lol, Take two.....

What about 90 degree highs at JFK?

The only two record holders I know of are 2010 and 1983 before that.

1983 was an amazing year when you think about it, the only 20 inch snowstorm of the decade here, the wettest year on record by a mile with 80 inches of rain and the hottest and most humid summer on record up to that point.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

A bomb testing...

I was thinking that amazingly hot summer in 1908 might be because of the Tunguska event lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Conversely looks like LGA rose more than the other stations, is that because of more urbanization?  I always see a spike in my car thermometer when I drive through there, even more than in Manhattan or New Jersey for that matter.

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Thank you for the fine summary. It seems the best that can be said for the NWS regarding the CPK ASOS is to use a, Daniel Patrick Moynihan phrase, “benign neglect” is their action and reaction. Sad, very sad. As always….

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, rclab said:

Thank you for the fine summary. It seems the best that can be said for the NWS regarding the CPK ASOS is to use a, Daniel Patrick Moynihan phrase, “benign neglect” is their action and reaction. Sad, very sad. As always….

You could probably do a a documentary on all the problems that the Central Park station has had over the years.

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

Besides taking New York City's temperature and trying to predict when it will go up or down. National Weather Service forecasters are searching for a new place in Central Park to keep the sensitive instruments they use to prepare their hourly reports.

“It's really a sh‐me, but we have to move,” said Harold Gibson, the meteorologist in charge of the New York bureau, as he stepped carefully through the debris at the crumbling Belvedere Castle, where weather data is collected and transmitted electronically to Weather Service headquarters in Rockefeller Center.

Mr. Gibson said he decided to leave the hilltop castle, which is the highest point in the park, because he cannot predict the frequency of break‐ins that interrupt the monitoring of temperature, humidity, sunlight and wind at the unmanned station in the unguarded, city‐owned castle, which is south of the Delacorte Theater at 79th Street on the west side of the park.

Vandalism Disrupts Work

“Mostly we suffer from malicious destruction,” Mr. Gibson said. “The problem up here can be as little as somebody pulling a circuit‐breaker switch that stops the current and halts the measurements. But from our standpoint, that's almost as bad as stealing all the equipment—it disrupts our work.”

The last break‐in occurred two weeks ago. The thermometer was not damaged, but the anemometer, which meastures wind speeds, was stolen, and other equipment has not functioned properly since.

Some of the forecasters work in windowless rooms and cannot tell whether the sun is shining without the Central Park equipment. As a result, visitors to the Weather Service office at Rockefeller Center are sometimes asked what the weather outside is like.

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

During the current hot spell, the Weather Service has used wind and humidity readings from La Guardia in its forecasts. Replacing the Central Park equipment is fairly expensive—an anemometer costs about $2.500, Mr. Gibson said—but the forecasers arc reluctant to install replacements because they fear another break‐in.

“Whoever does this to us is speedy,” Mr. Gibson said, recalling_ one break‐in that had occurred in the morning. By 2:30 P.M. the repairs were completed. No sooner was the 4 P.M. forecast released than the new equipment was stolen.

The police have increased the number of patrols passing the castle, and that has deterred some vandals, Mr. Gibson said. And the Parks Department put steel gratings over the windows after vandals smashed through the concrete blocks that had been installed in place of the semicircular windows.

“Clearly, that's not enough,” said Joseph P. Bresnan, director of historic parks, monuments and restoration. “That building should be used.”

Meanwhile, the stonework at the castle, which was designed by Calvert Vaux, a collaborator wtih Frederick Law Olmsted on the design of Central Park, has been frescoed with graffiti.

A $557,000 project to restore the castle, the top priority item in a 1973 study of Central Park, has been put off indefinitely because of the city's economic problems.

One possible site for housing the sensitive instruments is the roof of the Central Park Precinct station house, which the police have offered. It is only a short distance from the castle, and meteorologists think the climate conditions there are almost identical to those at Belvedere, where weather data have been gathered for 109 years.

“It would be almost criminal to destroy the century‐old data base we have accumulated here at Central Pork.” Mr. Gibson said. “It is one of the best in the United States, or, for that matter, in the world.”

[LibertyBell]

See, they've relocated the instruments before and can do so again.

They need to stop this religious adherence to Central Park.

 

[LibertyBell]

I had to laugh when he said LGA may be several degrees cooler than Central Park in the summer lol; my, how times have changed!

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was thinking that amazingly hot summer in 1908 might be because of the Tunguska event lol.

 

Nuclear bomb testing in the 1950's charged the atmosphere and caused changes in weather patterns thousands of miles from the test sites. - Reeko's Mad Scientist Lab (reekoscience.com)

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

Nuclear bomb testing in the 1950's charged the atmosphere and caused changes in weather patterns thousands of miles from the test sites. - Reeko's Mad Scientist Lab (reekoscience.com)

wow we got the opposite of nuclear winter, we had a nuclear late summer and early fall!  I think hydrogen fusion bombs were being tested by then too

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I had to laugh when he said LGA may be several degrees cooler than Central Park in the summer lol; my, how times have changed!

 

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, impressive gradient for late July.

 

Winds are there for Thursday, as TT as well...  little early to get too committed. Timing might not be quite ideal.

I noticed the afternoon outlook hasn't changed for tomorrow- tho some of the modeling is trying to get isolated or sct potentially svr storms going I80 south.  So for now, all quiet from myself on the threads.  

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

Why cant they just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

Heat is now referred to the same way snowstorms are.  "More/higher to the west."  Inland areas are where all the action is now, aside from the rogue storm that hits the East End lol.  I now hear "inland heatwaves" in the summer as much as I hear "inland snowstorms" in the winter.

 

[nycwinter]

when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why cant they just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?

I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations.

[uncle W]

the foliage keeps night time lows up a little too...one reason they won't use the sheep meadow is possible vandalism...

[uncle W]

47 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's

in the 60's the question would be when was the last time NYC had four straight days with dew points above the 50's...

[wdrag]

RE: Thu July 29 SVR: Monitoring Gust algorithm of the EC...poking 30s knots here in the subforum.  That is significant for a non-TC/non Synoptic Scale Winter event...especially 6 days in advance. Will monitor cyclically and see if it holds.