dmillz25 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: The magnitude of the warm up next week will probably come down to the strength of the Greenland block. The runs with stronger blocking have more of a 50/50 low near New England. The 0z runs kept the strongest heat to our south. But a weaker block in future runs would allow more warming into our area. New run strongest heat stays south Old run had less blocking and more heat into our area Oh look at that NW flow very nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Oh look at that NW flow very nice Yeah, one of the stronger July MJO phase 5 patterns that we have seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 For those who really want to cool off, current temperature at Amundson-Scott station in Antarctica is -75 F. and wind chill -114F. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, lee59 said: For those who really want to cool off, current temperature at Amundson-Scott station in Antarctica is -75 F. and wind chill -114F. Which is exactly average for them! https://www.foresthillweather.com/PHP/Metar2/AntarcticaAverages.php Pretty intense weather to experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Storm moving thru here, plenty of thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 hours ago, lee59 said: For those who really want to cool off, current temperature at Amundson-Scott station in Antarctica is -75 F. and wind chill -114F. for the middle of winter that is very warm in antarctica.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Down to 71 after the hail producing thunderstorm passed by here in bed stuy Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, nycwinter said: for the middle of winter that is very warm in antarctica.. Actually that is normal. At Amundson-Scott location the average January temperature (summer) in -16F and July is -75F. The average yearly is -54F. No wonder something like 90% of the worlds ice is in Antarctica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Following the cold front's passage, a period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop. In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +8.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.938 today. On July 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.718 (RMM). The July 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.711 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Pretty sure i am smelling smoke faintly in the air...anyone else? Im up in westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Pretty sure i am smelling smoke faintly in the air...anyone else? Im up in westchester. in nyc you can never tell what it is you are smelling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 7/21 ACY: 89 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 JFk: 85 BLM: 85 New Brnswck: 84 ISP: 83 TTN: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 NYC: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Dews in the 50s finally! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Dews in the 50s finally! It feels amazing. GFS is also super consistent with giving the outer burbs quite a chill come early august. Low 50s for lows. Gotta watch if that trough pans out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 There was a slight chill to the air when I left the island for work at 430. Great stretch of weather for those of us that work outside. A nice weather break before what I expect to be non stop tropical tracking. Even if we do not get a direct hit a hyper active season with multiple long track MDR formed majors is on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90), or +3. Month to date is 76.5[-1.0]. Should be 77.5[Normal] by the 30th. NYC may not make 10", if the main 3 models are right. Dallas may ace every test and get some bonus 'Degrees' till further notice-----starting Sat. Dry too. 68*(80%RH) here at 6am, m .clear. 77* by 11am---but again, sun getting dimmed by the smoke. 83* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2021 Author Share Posted July 22, 2021 Seasonable temps for a while and looks kind of dry to me, except for the "Possible" decent brief nw flow convective events with the CFP's. WNW flow events are my favored for big events, especially if big heat in the midwest. So, we'll see how this evolves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 61 here this AM, DP 60/RH 87% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 63° here this am...first below 70° reading in 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 This was the wettest first 3 weeks of July on record for many stations in the Northeast. So it’s no surprise that all the clouds and rain have kept the high temperatures down. It also resulted in warmer minimums across the board. So the the record heat at the end of June remains the strongest heat of the summer to date. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 22, 2021 Author Share Posted July 22, 2021 Looking at Sun-Mon potential nw flow event but could be a tweener like yesterday... does have potential but timing timing timing...?? Winds aloft not quite as strong but decent instability to feed upon. For now, low prob for a SVR event in our NYC subforum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and refreshing. Humidity will be low and temperatures will rise to the lower and perhaps middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 83° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 89.0° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant. In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce significant monsoon rainfall, with the heaviest amounts falling between tomorrow night and Saturday morning. Both Phoenix and Tucson could pick up 0.50”-1.00” rain during this period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 8 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Pretty sure i am smelling smoke faintly in the air...anyone else? Im up in westchester. My neighbor has a fire going...which is okay if you live in a more rural area, but when you can spit and hit your neighbor's house, maybe a fire pit is not the most neighborly thing to have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 On 7/20/2021 at 8:55 PM, SACRUS said: No the Western/Plains ridge will expand east and the immense heat will spread into the region. Strong heat (95+) with 850 MB temps ?18c will need to be tracked next week / end of July. In the extreme it could progress into an Aug 2001 opening, I was thinking about that- could August be our hottest month of the summer? And August 2001 was the last time it hit 100 in August in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 On 7/20/2021 at 10:18 PM, Nibor said: Had to break out the DSLR when I saw this on my run. Beautiful. I was outside running in the smoke tuesday night, and I couldn't help but to keep looking up at the orange moon. Nice side effect of the smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Great day out there-turned off the AC for the first time in a couple of weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 On 7/20/2021 at 4:07 PM, uncle W said: there was a smoke problem coming from the SE in 1995 if I remembered right... we had wildfires here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 what a glorious day comfortable temps low humidity i had a extra bounce in my step today.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, nycwinter said: what a glorious day comfortable temps low humidity i had a extra bounce in my step today.. Same. Step down to winter. Weak nina? Going to try to hold off winter mode in my house until September but next week I am heading to NH to check out a camp for this winter so its on the brain heavily already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Newark is on track for its first summer since 2010 with more 95° days in June than July. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Mean 2 6 2 2021 8 3 M 2020 0 6 0 2019 0 5 0 2018 2 3 3 2017 2 2 0 2016 0 7 5 2015 0 3 2 2014 0 3 0 2013 1 8 0 2012 5 11 1 2011 3 13 1 2010 3 11 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now