psv88 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Anyone think the dewpoint numbers at LGA are off? They are always 4-5 degrees lower than anyone station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Remember that is based off of the 1990-2020 numbers, we no longer use the 1980-2010 records as of this year...I am sure if you ran the departures from 1980-2010 the numbers area wide appear different...the real metric is what @bluewave posted, where the month ranks in actual monthly temperature. Yeah, was just throwing in some others around the area. Going by the old numbers, everywhere besides ABE was +2 to +5. ABE looks like the only place that wasn't ++ based on the old numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 minute ago, FPizz said: Yeah, was just throwing in some others around the area. Going by the old numbers, everywhere besides ABE was +2 to +4. ABE looks like the only place that wasn't ++ based on the old numbers. I would hope that as time goes on the departures do not continue to increase at the same pace as they did in the last decade. I think we see a much larger jump once the 1990s drops off, as the real warming seems to have started around 2000. After that jump, departures in any given month should be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday. I wonder if the ridge will shoot the weak tropical system our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.2 0 2 1966 75.4 0 3 1994 75.2 0 4 2010 74.7 0 - 1899 74.7 0 5 1984 74.5 0 6 2021 74.3 0 - 1957 74.3 0 - 1925 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.4 0 2 2010 76.0 0 3 2020 75.9 0 4 2008 75.7 0 5 2021 75.6 0 - 1994 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 71.9 0 - 1999 71.9 0 2 2008 71.6 0 3 1994 71.3 0 4 2001 70.9 0 5 2020 70.7 0 6 2021 70.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 72.2 0 2 2010 71.8 0 3 1994 71.7 0 4 1957 71.6 0 5 2021 71.5 0 Yea I was thinking about that when I wrote about the temperature not being all that much above normal. It definitely is something to consider when comparing numbers to the past. I'm not sure how much of a difference the last 10 years has made in the 30 year average but I'm sure it is up at least a few tenths of a degree. Another thing I was bringing out is how all the stations were basically up a degree or 2 but Newark was up quite a bit more at 3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, lee59 said: Yea I was thinking about that when I wrote about the temperature not being all that much above normal. It definitely is something to consider when comparing numbers to the past. I'm not sure how much of a difference the last 10 years has made in the 30 year average but I'm sure it is up at least a few tenths of a degree. Another thing I was bringing out is how all the stations were basically up a degree or 2 but Newark was up quite a bit more at 3.5. One station is often up a bit more than the others in our area. It really comes down to the prevailing winds. Essex county, NJ and Queens, NY seem to take turns being the warmest. Having our airports close to the water often leads to localalized warm spots since wind direction is so important. Last summer it was the bay breeze keeping Newark cooler. This year the flow pattern has kept LGA cooler. Jun 21….EWR….+3.5…..LGA…+2.2 Aug 20…EWR….+1.3…..LGA….+2.0 Jul 20….EWR….+2.6……LGA…..+3.7 Jun 20…EWR….+1.7……LGA….+2.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Yea I was thinking about that when I wrote about the temperature not being all that much above normal. It definitely is something to consider when comparing numbers to the past. I'm not sure how much of a difference the last 10 years has made in the 30 year average but I'm sure it is up at least a few tenths of a degree. Another thing I was bringing out is how all the stations were basically up a degree or 2 but Newark was up quite a bit more at 3.5. Just like comparing temperature numbers in a fair way, we really have to consider the same when it comes to tropical storms. Comparing the amount we get now to the past is not the proper way to do it when you consider we now count sub tropical as tropical. We are now up to the 5th storm but in past record keeping we would probably be on the first or second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: Just like comparing temperature numbers in a fair way, we really have to consider the same when it comes to tropical storms. Comparing the amount we get now to the past is not the proper way to do it when you consider we now count sub tropical as tropical. We are now up to the 5th storm but in past record keeping we would probably be on the first or second. The comparison over the satellite era has been pretty consistent. Since we aren’t missing storms now that may have been missed before satellites. Those were called shorties that dissipated before they were detected. But there have been reanalysis papers done that figures out how many short lived storms out at sea may have been missed by shipping. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The comparison over the satellite era has been pretty consistent. Since we aren’t missing storms now that may have been missed before satellites. Those were called shorties that dissipated before they were detected. But there have been reanalysis papers done that figures out how many short lived storms out at sea may have been missed by shipping. The problem to me is not only the shorties but it appears the naming of storms now includes storms that don't meet past criteria, such as tropical vs, sub tropical characteristics. I have no problem naming sub tropical storms, just make sure there is an asterisk when making comparisons.For example, I heard this May with the naming of Ana, the record trend of tropical systems in May continues, I believe 5 yrs in a row. I know Ana never would have been named in the past, and I wonder how many of the other 4 would not have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Temperature has dropped to the mid 70s but still feels uncomfortable. So far only .08 inch of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Some breaks of sun the last hour, clouds and line of storms moving in , the next couple of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, lee59 said: The problem to me is not only the shorties but it appears the naming of storms now includes storms that don't meet past criteria, such as tropical vs, sub tropical characteristics. I have no problem naming sub tropical storms, just make sure there is an asterisk when making comparisons.For example, I heard this May with the naming of Ana, the record trend of tropical systems in May continues, I believe 5 yrs in a row. I know Ana never would have been named in the past, and I wonder how many of the other 4 would not have been. Shorties that remain OTS aren’t what hurricane seasons are remembered for. The relevant metrics are landfall, intensity, rainfall, and seasonal ACE. But the higher number of named storm years usually feature a significant amount of major hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 It looks like the NWS has backed off some on the total rainfall over the next few days, for my area. They also seem to be getting deeper into the weekend with the rain. Hopefully the 4th stays dry, so far that is the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Steady light to moderate rain falling here. Picked up 0.16" of rain so far today. Temp 75/DP 71 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 0.00" again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely overnight and through at least tomorrow. Some of the thunderstorms can produce heavy downpours. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall is likely over the 3-day period ending tomorrow night. Some areas could see in excess of 3.00" of rain. Out West, the unprecedented heat shifted farther north and east in Canada, breaking additional high temperature records. Preliminary high temperatures included: Calgary: 96° (old record: 91°, 1924) Edmonton: 95° (old record: 84°, 2013) Lynn Lake, MB: 100° (old record: 86°, 2013) Medicine Lake, AB: 103° (old record: 91°, 2013) Saskatoon, SK: 95° (old record: 93°, 1962) Winnipeg: 90° (old record: 88°, 1974) Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +31.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.324 today. On June 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.607 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.693 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 7/1 ACY: 91 EWR: 89 JFK: 88 BLM: 87 TEB: 87 ISP: 86 LGA: 86 New Brnswck: 86 PHL: 86 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Through 11 pm, Bridgeport had picked up 1.30” of rain. That broke the daily record of 1.08”, which was set in 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Picked up 0.53" of rain for the day. Current temp 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 absolutely pouring! heaviest rain i have ever seen! 1.7” in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 21 hours ago, bluewave said: The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.2 0 2 1966 75.4 0 3 1994 75.2 0 4 2010 74.7 0 - 1899 74.7 0 5 1984 74.5 0 6 2021 74.3 0 - 1957 74.3 0 - 1925 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.4 0 2 2010 76.0 0 3 2020 75.9 0 4 2008 75.7 0 5 2021 75.6 0 - 1994 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 71.9 0 - 1999 71.9 0 2 2008 71.6 0 3 1994 71.3 0 4 2001 70.9 0 5 2020 70.7 0 6 2021 70.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 72.2 0 2 2010 71.8 0 3 1994 71.7 0 4 1957 71.6 0 5 2021 71.5 0 is this the equivalent of having a winter with a lot of coastal huggers where coastal areas dont get a lot of snow but just inland does? because we just had that kind of winter too lol. maybe the two go together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark made it to 103°yesterday for a new all-time June monthly maximum temperature. This was matched by the new Corona, Queens micronet station. Several other stations reached 100° also. So Essex and Queens counties were the warmest around the area in June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2021 100 0 - 2008 100 0 https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona 103 Astoria 100 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100 How is it that Portland was hotter than JFK in June when it's right on the water and the waters are MUCH cooler up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 9 hours ago, SACRUS said: 7/1 ACY: 91 EWR: 89 JFK: 88 BLM: 87 TEB: 87 ISP: 86 LGA: 86 New Brnswck: 86 PHL: 86 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 lol JFK was 88 and NYC was 84.....LGA right between them at 86 actually hit 90 here on the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 17 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday. that one looks to be brief and not as intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 16 hours ago, lee59 said: Yea I was thinking about that when I wrote about the temperature not being all that much above normal. It definitely is something to consider when comparing numbers to the past. I'm not sure how much of a difference the last 10 years has made in the 30 year average but I'm sure it is up at least a few tenths of a degree. Another thing I was bringing out is how all the stations were basically up a degree or 2 but Newark was up quite a bit more at 3.5. also remember that summer departures are usually much less than winter ones, because a small departure means more in terms of excess heat. I consider anything equal to or higher than +1.5 to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 No ELSA thread yet, if ever for me on our subforum, since EC op doesn't show anything significant. GFS/GGEM do, and a possible PRE as well. So for now, am reluctant to confidently comment on tropical occurrence here. If others are confident we'll get some sort of moisture contrib., go for it. Will rereview after 8P tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 17 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday. Nothing like we’ve experienced. I am on vacation the next three weeks and my forecast looks like nothing but rain. This summer sucks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: Nothing like we’ve experienced. I am on vacation the next three weeks and my forecast looks like nothing but rain. This summer sucks! You’re on vacation for the next 3 weeks; I’d say that’s pretty awesome, regardless of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I just want to state that we have to use the new normal numbers. There has to be an official benchmark and that’s the new normal. If not we sow chaos . Using actual temperature data comparisons is great to show warming over 120 years…but let’s stop the 1980s 30 year average numbers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now