July 2021

[ForestHillWx]

Aside from the Montana area a sizable portion of the US could be below average. That’s a welcomed relief/needed short reprieve...

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had so much record July heat since 2010, that the new 30 year climate normals have risen from 77.4 to 78.2 at Newark. So Newark only needs a +1.8 July departure for a top 10 warmest 80° or higher July. That’s why using departures can really underestimate heat in a warming climate.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&station=USW00014734

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0

This is a good point…and gives good perspective. We are in a warmer, more humid climate.

We are really tracking weather here not climate. We talk climate for historical perspective, hence the top 10 charts…but when talking about weather, we need to use a universal baseline, if not we will have chaos on the forum.

As another poster said, July has been cooler than normal for most of the region…with normal being the new 30 year averages. 
 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

7/15

TEB: 94
New Brnswck: 91
LGA: 91
EWR: 91
PHL: 91
ACY: 90
TTN: 90
BLM: 88
ISP: 88
NYC: 88
JFK: 87

[donsutherland1]

The thermometer soared into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 15):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 13 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 24 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 13 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 6 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 17 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 13 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 13 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 10 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 22 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 18 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 20 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 13 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 13 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The weekend could see more clouds and perhaps thundershowers.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +37.86 today. That is the highest SOI value since January 15, 2014 when the SOI was +50.17.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.750 today.

On July 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.941 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.091 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the record heat will be focused over Montana next week.

EPS July 19-26

 

 

Some climate data for Billings:

[SACRUS]

8 hours ago, binbisso said:

 Can you explain to me how we're in a warm to hot pattern when through the 1st 15 days of July almost all reporting stations are between  -1 and  -2.5 including  Connecticut.  Maybe you mean Newark and central New Jersey  which still is not a hot pattern as most of those locations are around plus 1. 

Overall warm to hot pattern. 3 days are bringing the monthly departures down 11 of the 15 at EWR and other stations are above the daily averages.  Cooler summers like 2004, 2009, 2000 didnt have the persistent warmth of this Jun and Jul (so far).  We'll see how cool we can get 7.23 - 725.

[uncle W]

Newark NJ is averaging close to 79.0 degrees for July...since 1950 the average is 77.7...last year averaged 80.8...many more 80's for the average in recent years compared to the 50's-70's...

1950-59..........76.82

1960-69..........76.10

1970-79..........77.27

1980-89..........78.31

1990-99..........78.72

2000-09..........76.63

2010-19...........79.87

[Rtd208]

A very uncomfortable night out there.

High for the day was 92 here.

Current temp 81/DP 72/RH 75%

 

Expecting some bouts of heavy rain over the weekend w/severe storms possible as well.

[Rjay]

Gross night outside. 

[qg_omega]

It’s odd, we have had some hot days but I wouldn’t call this a hot summer by any stretch, July averaging below normal at most climate sites

[psv88]

Love nights like this 

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s odd, we have had some hot days but I wouldn’t call this a hot summer by any stretch, July averaging below normal at most climate sites

June was very hot.

So far July isn't the scorcher it could be especially if the cooldown verifies next week.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(72/90), or +3.0.

Month to date is  75.4[-1.9].          Should be about 77.2[-0.1] by the 24th.

Single TS cell going off NJ coast 50 miles to the south at 8am.     Looks like quiet day for TS's otherwise, 92 for a high.     I do not know what today's convective T is, however.      At any rate the PW for TS's will be running low by the 21st.

77*(88%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.    78* at 8am.       80* by 10am.         83* by Noon.     84* at 12:30pm.          90* at 5pm.     86*(70%RH)here at 9pm and steamy.    Waiting for Fireworks.       Fireworks went off late and ended after 10pm, still 86* but RH down to 65%

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a good point…and gives good perspective. We are in a warmer, more humid climate.

We are really tracking weather here not climate. We talk climate for historical perspective, hence the top 10 charts…but when talking about weather, we need to use a universal baseline, if not we will have chaos on the forum.

As another poster said, July has been cooler than normal for most of the region…with normal being the new 30 year averages. 
 

 

 

 

 

By post 2010 standards, this hasn’t been one the hottest Julys so far. We have had too much in the way of clouds, convection, and onshore flow. While the heat the next few days will boost the means, we will be off the averages of our warmest Julys since 2010. The drought areas of the West will end up with the most extreme July heat this year. Northern NJ has been the warmest part of the region since it has been able to escape some of the onshore flow influence. The cooler easterly flow behind the backdoors has kept LGA at the coolest relative to the 2010s so far.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	82.9	0
2	2010	82.8	0
3	2019	81.5	0
4	2013	81.2	0
5	2016	81.1	0
6	2012	80.4	0
-	2011	80.4	0
7	2018	79.8	0
8	2015	79.2	0
9	2017	78.1	0
10	2014	77.0	0
11	2021	76.9	16

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	2010	82.3	0
3	2013	80.9	0
4	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
5	2019	80.6	0
6	2016	79.9	0
7	2015	79.0	0
8	2021	78.8	16
9	2018	78.2	0
10	2017	77.3	0
11	2014	77.0	0

 

[winterwarlock]

Lol

 

I work outside. I love heat and humidity. IMBY believe me the June and July period has been pretty hot. A few really cool days sprinkled in skewing things doesn't  change that. 

 

Today will mark my 4th official heatwave and i dont have my 90 plus days off hand buts greater than normal

[Rtd208]

Temps going up quickly this morning.

Current temp 80/DP 74/RH 82%

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Lol

 

I work outside. I love heat and humidity. IMBY believe me the June and July period has been pretty hot. A few really cool days sprinkled in skewing things doesn't  change that. 

 

Today will mark my 4th official heatwave and i dont have my 90 plus days off hand buts greater than normal

Posters have been talking about July specifically in areas of the forum that are closest to New England. We all know  how hot June was. But Northern and Central NJ had the 4th warmest first half of summer on record. Even our coolest recent summers like 2017 are still plenty hot for outdoor work in this part of the country.  You would need to go up to the Canadian Maritimes to experience comfortable outdoor working conditions in July.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 15	Missing Count
1	1994-07-15	79.2	0
2	1993-07-15	78.9	0
3	2010-07-15	77.9	0
4	2021-07-15	77.1	0
5	1981-07-15	77.0	0
-	1966-07-15	77.0	0

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A hot and humid day lies ahead. It will be partly sunny and hot. A few locations could see an afternoon or evening thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 92°

Newark: 97°

Philadelphia: 93°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and very warm with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.

[doncat]

Warmest morning here so far this month with low of 75°.

[qg_omega]

[bluewave]

Numerous stations in the Northeast had a top 5 warmest and wettest first half of the summer. 
 

 

[jm1220]

With the wet pattern we had, as expected dewpoints are creeping up faster than temps. Hideous outside, currently 89/75. Yuck. 

[jm1220]

In the South as shown it’s actually been a cool summer so far. In TX temps are usually breaking 100 by now but for the most part it’s been damp and temps in the low 90s. The heat’s all been north and west. 

[SACRUS]

 

Hot in the city today.  Proably 24 - 30 more hours of the current humid/heat before the cold front arrives Saturday.  Today mid to perhaps upper 90s in the hot spots and perhaps even the park can get to 90.  Tomorrow a race to 90 ahead of clouds and some strong rains/storms.  Sunday and perhaps most or part of Monday  looking like a cloudy hung up front kind of day before a few days ofdrier warmer weather with the warmer spots may tough 90 Tue (7/21) and Wed (7/22).  Thu  (7/23) - Sun (7/25) despite the trough into the north east a piece of the western heat blows east and we'll see what the north/south cutoff is of 80s vs 90s that period.  Euro lost the sharp cool down that period.  Beyond there closing out the last week of the month and start to the next month, looks more warm to hot at times and likely continued rain chances.

 

Noon Roundup

 

EWR: 92
LGA: 91
ACY: 90
BLM: 90
New Brnswck:  90
PHL: 89
NYC: 88
TEB: 88
TTN: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86

[Cfa]

90/78 (HI 104).

[LoboLeader1]

91 here, by far the hottest day of the week. RH 52/ DP 69

[Dan76]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In the South as shown it’s actually been a cool summer so far. In TX temps are usually breaking 100 by now but for the most part it’s been damp and temps in the low 90s. The heat’s all been north and west. 

OR the new TX

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

In the South as shown it’s actually been a cool summer so far. In TX temps are usually breaking 100 by now but for the most part it’s been damp and temps in the low 90s. The heat’s all been north and west. 

It gives new meaning to over the top heat.

Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	99	169

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	108	169

 

Time Series Summary for Portland Area, OR (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	116	169

 

Time Series Summary for Boise Area, ID (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	107	169

 

Time Series Summary for Billings Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	105	169

 

Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	107	169

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	100	169

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	103	169

[RippleEffect]

Beautiful day here in east Hampton temperature around 84. Enjoy your weekend my weenies

[doncat]

93/73