July 2021

[donsutherland1]

Warmer air was confined to Philadelphia and southward. While Baltimore hit 96°, New York City's Central Park rose only to 72°. The warm front will gradually move northward tonight and tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably warmer. Showers or thundershowers are possible. The remainder of the work week will see temperatures mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.369 today.

On July 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.391 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.382 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 44% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.2° (0.3° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

2009 was a very cool Summer with the warmest part coming in August...1960 was similar...the following winters yielded over 50" of snow each...

2009, 2004 were very cool overall nothing like this year June / Jul.  Today and Jul 3 were the two miserable clunkers  bringing the averages for Jul all the way down but Wed - Sat we should notch 3  or 4 90(+)  degree days in most places (park included). Can see Thu with big over performance if we remain mostly sunny.  Despite the heavy rains (centered near NYC) I'd expect Jul to finish on the positive side >+1.5.  Its looking hotter towards the last week of the month and open August.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

GFS dropping most of the upcoming rains and turning on the heat instead.     Have to figure that would happen because we are close to being the wettest ever July with 18 days to go.       

Crazy model showed similar last week.  Jul 18 - Jul 22 looks near normal before that heat out west come east so perhaps its onto something from the Fri 7/23 and yonder.

[SACRUS]

10 hours ago, binbisso said:

 Newark was the only area to hit 90ﾟ yesterday The 5 boroughs Long Island most of northern New Jersey lower Hudson Valley were all between 82 and 87ﾟ.  I think we gotta give the 90ﾟ threshold a break.  Normal highs in the urban areas are between 86 and 88, so 90ﾟ is 2 to 4ﾟ above normal. not very special any more especially in warming climate.  It's no different in Winter when a 35ﾟ high is not cold or remarkable when the normal high is 38.  95ﾟ should be the new threshold in this warming climate.   anyway a beautiful 71ﾟ dew point of 67 on July 13th In this new age of global warming

Many places in Central and Northern NJ hit 90 on Monday.  New Brnswck was at 90 and has hit 90 () 17 times this year, matching or close to NE-NJ/ EWR. Of the 15 - 20 days of 90(+) this year is, many places are  exceeding prior years in places in EWR/CNJ for 95+ days as well.  I wouldnt be surprised if we see 2 or more 95+ dayes  between Wed and Sat.

[lee59]

Was at Tobay beach tonight, just east of Jones Beach. Most everyone had on sweat shirts and light jackets. Definitely did not feel like July.

[CIK62]

The GFS has checked itself into a CI Funhouse and is unavailable..........      Seriously it has 10 straight 90's and has  brought back the rains to boot.       EURO/CMC have 0 90's between them.

Please note the 500mb heights peaked yesterday for the next 7 days.     They will pop for a day on the weekend and range +1.3 to +2.3 sd., so 90's with favorable conditions otherwise...... is possible.

So for fun, the next 8 days are averaging 85degs.(75/95), or +7.

Month to date is  74.7[-2.5].       Should be 78.6[+1.1] by the 22nd.         Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS

71*(96%RH) here at 6am., scuzzy look.           Reached 85* at 6pm, after a miss by the TS earlier.

 

GFS=====GoodForSh_t!

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A steamy day is in order. It will be partly cloudy and very warm today. There could be some scattered showers or thundershowers in parts of the region.  Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 90°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot.

[bluewave]

Looks like the usual warm spots will have chance at another heatwave next several days. The Euro has the 850s reaching +16c today and tomorrow with breaks of sun. The HRRR also shows 90° at the usual warm spots today. The Euro has 850s peaking near +18 C on Friday which support mid 90s if we can get enough sun. Humidity levels will be high with dew points back into the 70s.

Today

 

Friday

[SACRUS]

 

73/73 and waiting for clouds to burn off and clear today.  That will determine how hot we can get.  Overall hot, humid and chances for storms the next 4 days through Saturday 7/17. 850 temps spike to >18c on Thu /Fri and Sat so pending on sunshine the warmer spots can touch the upper 90s.  

Cold front comes through Saturday evening and Sun (7/18) through Wed (7/21) look near normal before warming up towards the second part of next week (7/24)  and beyond as pieces of the Western Atlantic heat push east and heights are forecast to rise in the east.  Could be a very hot finish to the month.

[MJO812]

[Fantom X]

Maybe someone can start a gofundme that can fund the trimming at central park ASOS. Im sure many enthusiasts wouldn't mind to chip in. 

[psv88]

HAHA, the Park is sitting at 76, FOK at 83, all other stations warmer, what a joke!

[doncat]

87/73 here.

[SI Mailman]

Yep, full sunshine and feeling it out here now.

[psv88]

PArk down to 55 degrees

[doncat]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

PArk down to 55 degrees

Thats more like it

[binbisso]

The park is up to 86ﾟ jump 10ﾟ in the last hour

[FPizz]

88/74  here currently.  

[Cfa]

88/78.

[LoboLeader1]

Partly sunny here, temp 87/RH 60/DP 70 

[SnoSki14]

Models hinting at some nice relief from the heat after the mild Thurs-Sat heatwave. 

We'll have to see what happens beyond as those cool downs have been followed by record breaking heat a few days later.

[bluewave]

91° at Newark and 90° at Caldwell. So they are both near the top of the list for 90° days by mid-July with 21. The observational record at Caldwell only goes back to 1999.

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	2021-07-14	21	1
2	2012-07-14	17	4
3	2020-07-14	14	0
-	2010-07-14	14	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 14	Missing Count
1	2010-07-14	23	0
2	1993-07-14	22	0
3	1994-07-14	21	0
-	1987-07-14	21	0
	2021-07-14	21	0
4	1966-07-14	20	0

[Rtd208]

Current temp 91/DP 69/RH 49%

[Roger Smith]

Record July rainfalls (2021 will pass 1919 in 6th place with any new measurable rainfalls)

and what these months had recorded after 13 days in brackets ... 

 1. 1889 __ 11.89" (2.08")

 2. 1975 __ 11.77" (5.08")

 3. 1897 ___ 9.56" (3.29")

 4. 1928 ___ 8.89" (6.10")

 5. 1880 ___ 8.53" (5.22")

 6. 1919 ___ 8.50" (0.86")

 7.  2021 was 8.49" after 13th

 8. 1997 ___ 8.39" (1.70")

 9. 1960 ___ 8.29" (1.90")

10. 1988 ___ 8.14" (0.69")

______________________________________________

Looks like 2021 is easily going to get to third place and may be edging into top spots near the end of the month (from the current guidance, would say another inch likely by 25th and then more speculative heavy rainfalls depicted near end of the month). 

In the weekly summary thread that I started recently, I noted that 2021 had broken weekly rainfall records for several consecutive intervals and the peak amounts (6.58" ending 12th and 13th) represent the second highest totals for any week fully within July with 6.75" from 25th to 31st 1889 the only higher value. Also these were the wettest weeks at NYC since June 7-13 2013 had over seven inches of rain. They were also the wettest weeks at NYC for any week ending June 14 to July 30 (1869 to present). 

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

88/78.

I’d always suspected my dews ran a bit high, and they probably do, but I recently bought a Kestrel and it seems my PWS isn’t off by much.

PWS - 85/77

Kestrel - 86/76

Snuck in a 90 today, low was 68.

[doncat]

Made it to 91° today before t storm dropped temp to 80°.

[tim]

...weird kinds day at the shore(tiana beach hampton bays)..fog was thick..visability < 1/2 mile..but sun was out..no wind to speak of...but a nice warm day @ the beach..water temp around 70*..i'll take after the last few days of the murky BS..

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 93 here.

Current temp 84/DP 72/RH 67%

[donsutherland1]

Washington, DC to Newark saw temperatures rise into the 90s. Tomorrow will be another steamy day with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Through Friday, temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The weekend could see more clouds and perhaps thundershowers.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +26.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.496 today.

On July 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.091 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.1° (0.4° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/14

EWR: 93
PHL: 93
ACY: 92
LGA: 91
New Brnswck: 90
BLM: 90
TEB: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
NYC: 87
JFK: 86