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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(73/88), or +2.0.

Month to date is  74.7[-2.3].       Should be about  76.9[-0.5] by the 20th.

Rain today by 3pm?       EURO with no 90's for the next 10 days but does have 3".       GFS has 4 90's, and less than 2".

CI was lost in a clammy fog last evening.

73*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.       78* by 9am.        83* by Noon.       84*(81%RH) at 1pm. ---Feels like 94*

 

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Morning thoughts…

Between 2 am and 3 am, Central Park received 1.35” of rain. Since hourly data was first recorded in 1943, there have been only 12 such days (including today). This is the first time two such deluges occurred within the same month, with 1.56” hourly rainfall on July 8 and 1.35” today. 2006  is the only prior year with two such amounts, but the first event occurred on June 2 and the second occurred on August 10. As a result of this morning’s rainfall, July 2021 now ranks as the 7th wettest July on record. Records go back to 1869.

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. Heavy showers and thundershowers are likely across a slowly advancing warm front. Flash flooding is possible in some locations. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0°

Additional rain is likely tomorrow.

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Florida like forecast, hot, humid and routine storms next few days.  Where the sun comes out temps will spike to near 90.  Western Atlantic Ridge Building in Mon - Sat. Later Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/18) looks like the peak heat with 3,4 days of 90s.  850 temps jump to >18c in that period so where its sunny enough for long enough - the hot spots could top in the upper 90s.  

 

A cod front come through this weekend but is slow to progress so the period later Sat (7/18 into early next week 7/21 it looks a bit unsettled.  Western ridge is pumping heat and should begin to drift eater later next week.  Appears any break in heat chances will yield in the 7/25 period.

 

Overall warm to hot - humid and stormy pattern continues.

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Between 2 am and 3 am, Central Park received 1.35” of rain. Since hourly data was first recorded in 1943, there have been only 12 such days (including today). This is the first time two such deluges occurred within the same month, with 1.56” hourly rainfall on July 8 and 1.35” today. 2006  is the only prior year with two such amounts, but the first event occurred on June 2 and the second occurred on August 10. As a result of this morning’s rainfall, July 2021 now ranks as the 7th wettest July on record. Records go back to 1869.

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. Heavy showers and thundershowers are likely across a slowly advancing warm front. Flash flooding is possible in some locations. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0°

Additional rain is likely tomorrow.

I mostly missed out on this and got some tail end rain.       For the record, this was 2:30AM today:

1626071520-m2gsHlj7UU0.png

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I looked up some of the wettest storms for July in NYC...July 1980 had a deluge of 3.47" in 8 hours...1997 had a 29 hour storm accumulating 4.62"...I'm not sure if I missed any storms on this list...

4.62"...7/24-25/1997...29 hours...3am-7am...

4.35"...7/26-27/2000...30 hours...3am-8am...

4.33"...7/05-06/1901...not sure if this was one storm or two...

4.06"...7/08-09/2021...21 hours...2pm-11am...

3.98"...7/30-31/1889...26 hours...12pm-2pm...

3.60"...7/29-30/1971...26 hours...2pm-3pm...

3.56"...7/30/1960.........15 hours...1am-3pm...

3.47"...7/29/1980...........8 hours...8am-3pm...2.59" between 9am-11am...

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I looked up some of the wettest storms for July in NYC...July 1980 had a deluge of 3.47" in 8 hours...1997 had a 29 hour storm accumulating 4.62"...I'm not sure if I missed any storms on this list...

4.62"...7/24-25/1997...29 hours...3am-7am...

4.35"...7/26-27/2000...30 hours...3am-8am...

4.33"...7/05-06/1901...not sure if this was one storm or two...

4.06"...7/08-09/2021...21 hours...2pm-11am...

3.98"...7/30-31/1889...26 hours...12pm-2pm...

3.60"...7/29-30/1971...26 hours...2pm-3pm...

3.56"...7/30/1960.........15 hours...1am-3pm...

3.47"...7/29/1980...........8 hours...8am-3pm...2.59" between 9am-11am...

These numbers are so localized though.


I had 7.5+ inches in queens in an afternoon in aug 2011

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Just now, user13 said:

For sure that's why looking at regional averages is better vs a localized record.

Brooklyn had a 6" deluge in June 1962 while everywhere else did not reach 2"...since Central Park has 150 years of record I used that tiny spot in the Park...

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

I mostly missed out on this and got some tail end rain.       For the record, this was 2:30AM today:

1626071520-m2gsHlj7UU0.png

I woke up from some thunder from this and took a peek at the radar. The amount of rotation in the northern part of that cell was very noticeable on radar. I'm surprised no warnings went up for it.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

20th 90 of the year for ewr

 While in the New York City metro region Central Park 85 laguardia 81  White Plains 81 Teterboro  86.  I'll bet that every one of those sites has less than 10 90゚ days.  That area in North central New Jersey near Newark and the surrounding counties have a climo like Washington DC.  I'll bet even philly and Trenton have less

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

 While in the New York City metro region Central Park 85 laguardia 81  White Plains 81 Teterboro  86.  I'll bet that every one of those sites has less than 10 90゚ days.  That area in North central New Jersey near Newark and the surrounding counties have a climo like Washington DC.  I'll bet even philly and Trenton have less

I highly doubt Newark is actually hotter than Philly, there's been some speculation that EWR is running too hot.

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

I highly doubt Newark is actually hotter than Philly, there's been some speculation that EWR is running too hot.

Newark is accurate.This summer is an over the top heat pattern. So DCA to Philly is running cooler than points further north. 
 

Summer 2021 highs so far

Boston…….100°

Hartford…..99°

LGA…….….100°

Corona……103°

Newark…..103°

Philly……….97°

DCA………..95°

0D498FEF-8551-4B12-8C1E-59DA50E1F2E1.gif.82074d8e7c24dde1a49bd3e04f12e60f.gif

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3 hours ago, binbisso said:

 While in the New York City metro region Central Park 85 laguardia 81  White Plains 81 Teterboro  86.  I'll bet that every one of those sites has less than 10 90゚ days.  That area in North central New Jersey near Newark and the surrounding counties have a climo like Washington DC.  I'll bet even philly and Trenton have less

Oops, they all have 10 or more days. Try again. 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has been accurate. It’s and over the top heat pattern. So DCA to Philly is running cooler that points further north. 
 

Summer 2021 highs so far

Boston…….100°

Hartford…..99°

LGA…….….100°

Corona……103°

Newark…..103°

Philly……….97°

DCA………..95°

0D498FEF-8551-4B12-8C1E-59DA50E1F2E1.gif.82074d8e7c24dde1a49bd3e04f12e60f.gif

Bluewave all reporting stations in July are running from-1 to -2.5 including Connecticut but Newark is at +1 with today included. We know of cpk problems but Newark seems to be off too. For example Philly high was 92* today Newark 93* most other metro area stations were in the mid 80s

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Oops, they all have 10 or more days. Try again. 

 Central Park 10 laguardia 10 White Plains 8 just did my research I'm not too far off and  they are less than half of what Newark has  would love to know what philly and Trenton  have as far as 90゚ days 

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11 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Bluewave all reporting stations in July are running from-1 to -2.5 including Connecticut but Newark is at +1 with today included. We know of cpk problems but Newark seems to be off too. For example Philly high was 92* today Newark 93* most other metro area stations were in the mid 80s

Newark is in line with the reporting stations west of NYC that are running a little above normal MTD.

8EB6A345-349C-414B-B5CE-2EB99BB85EBD.thumb.png.d543e26fccd9512ed66a67929b6ea90a.png

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