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The July 1-9 record rainfall could be signaling that the all-time June high of 103° at Newark will be the warmest of the summer. This was earliest in the season that we had a tropical storm or hurricane following a 100° day by a very wide margin. The usual pattern in the past was to have the 100° heat in July or August with the tropical system in August or September. This seasonal cycle getting moved up to late June and early July is unprecedented since at least 1944. 
 

Newark closest 100° dates followed by a tropical storm or hurricane 

8-5-44….102°………9-15-44……Great Atlantic Hurricane

7-31-54…103°……...8-31-54……Hurricane Carol….10-15-54….Hurricane Hazel

8-2-55….100°……….8-13-55……TS Connie…..8-17-55….TS Diane 

7-21-91...102°……….8-19-91……Hurricane Bob

7-5-99….103°…….…9-16-99…..TS Floyd

7-22-11…108°……….8-28-11……Hurricane Irene

7-18-12…104°……….10-29-12…Hurricane Sandy

6-30-21…103°………7-9-21……..TS Elsa

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The July 1-9 record rainfall could be signaling that the all-time June high of 103° at Newark will be the warmest of the summer. This was earliest in the season that we had a tropical storm or hurricane following a 100° day by a very wide margin. The usual pattern in the past was to have the 100° heat in July or August with the tropical system in August or September. This seasonal cycle getting moved up to late June and early July is unprecedented since at least 1944. 
 

Newark closest 100° dates followed by a tropical storm or hurricane 

8-5-44….102°………9-15-44……Great Atlantic Hurricane

8-2-55….100°……….8-13-55……TS Connie…..8-17-55….TS Diane 

7-21-91...102°……….8-19-91……Hurricane Bob

7-5-99….103°…….…9-16-99…..TS Floyd

7-22-11…108°……….8-28-11……TS Irene

6-30-21…103°………7-9-21……..TS Elsa

 

 

we seem to be following a pattern where we get two week warm/cooler spells so maybe we approach 100 toward the end of the month?

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The July 1-9 record rainfall could be signaling that the all-time June high of 103° at Newark will be the warmest of the summer. This was earliest in the season that we had a tropical storm or hurricane following a 100° day by a very wide margin. The usual pattern in the past was to have the 100° heat in July or August with the tropical system in August or September. This seasonal cycle getting moved up to late June and early July is unprecedented since at least 1944. 
 

Newark closest 100° dates followed by a tropical storm or hurricane 

8-5-44….102°………9-15-44……Great Atlantic Hurricane

7-31-54…103°……...8-31-54……Hurricane Carol….10-15-54….Hurricane Hazel

8-2-55….100°……….8-13-55……TS Connie…..8-17-55….TS Diane 

7-21-91...102°……….8-19-91……Hurricane Bob

7-5-99….103°…….…9-16-99…..TS Floyd

7-22-11…108°……….8-28-11……Hurricane Irene

7-18-12…104°……….10-29-12…Hurricane Sandy

6-30-21…103°………7-9-21……..TS Elsa

 

 

1934 and 1949 hit 100 in Newark with a tropical storm hit...

6/29/1934...100.............9/8/1934...

1934 storm...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877271/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877280

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877286

8/11/1949...102...............8/29/1949...storm...

1949 hurricane...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998805

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52998811/

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Numerous daily rainfall records were set as Elsa moved through the region. Daily records through 8 pm included:

Bridgeport: 4.09" (old record: 1.29", 1964)
Islip: 2.14" (old record: 1.73", 1964)
New York City: 1.79" (old record: 1.09", 1964)
Providence: 1.77" (old record: 1.31", 1962)

Central Park's 2-day total of 4.06" was the 4th biggest 2-day rainfall on record in July. Records go back to 1869.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit cooler. Some showers and thundershowers are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Out West, another bout of extreme heat is underway. Already, some impressive high temperatures have occurred. Select readings today included:

Death Valley, CA: 130° (old record: 126°, 2008*)
Fresno: 111°
Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 113°, 1943 and 2012)
Needles, CA: 120° (old record: 119°, 1961)
Phoenix: 112°

*-a 129°reading in 1913 is unreliable.

The height of this latest bout of heat could occur tomorrow into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 128°-130°. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. That record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.232 today.

On July 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.961(RMM). The July 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (0.2° above normal).

 

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9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Anywhere to get a good graphic on rainfall over the past week or for July to date for our area?  Thanks.  iweathernet has a radar composite map for up to the past 72 hours, but not further out than that...

Might want to get it updated again tomorrow. Insane that another cluster of storms is headed toward NYC and parts of the city are getting hit again. Months like Aug 2011 are on another level altogether (so far, month is young) but this is getting crazy. 

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30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Might want to get it updated again tomorrow. Insane that another cluster of storms is headed toward NYC and parts of the city are getting hit again. Months like Aug 2011 are on another level altogether (so far, month is young) but this is getting crazy. 

Yes august 2011 was insane. I got 7" in a few hours. With a max rain rate of like 57 or something obsured like that.

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Despite this:   The first regular Friday Night Fireworks in Coney Island since Covid started---just concluded {9:42pm}     Too bad it was raining and few people saw it.         For July 04, a few days ago,  they were luckier.

1625881200-Kxya3LE1ZyU.png

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